Nationals call it quits on decades-long coalition with Liberals
On today's show:
The Nationals will split from the Liberal Party after days of negotiations between the two sides failed to result in a coalition agreement, breaking with a century-long tradition. Reporter: Sinead Mangan with Professor Linda Botterill visiting fellow at the Crawford School of Public Policy at ANU and author of The National Party - Prospects for the great survivors
The SES is warning that major flooding on the New South Wales mid north coast could reach 2021 levels, with more heavy rain expected over the coming days. Reporter: Keely Johnson (Newcastle)
While torrential rain lashes eastern Australia, conditions could not be more different at Yvette McKenzie's New South Wales Riverina sheep farm. Sheep and cattle farmers are selling off stock, and crop farmers are dry sowing, as southern NSW's drought begins to take hold. Reporter: Emily Doak (Wagga Wagga)
For some coal-mining families, a retirement and old age by the coast or in the city sounds idyllic. But others are choosing to stay in the made-for-mining towns where they've built a life and community. The lack of residential aged-care in some of the Bowen Basin's younger mining communities has left home-care services to cover the gaps. Reporter: Liam O'Connell (Mackay)
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ABC News
an hour ago
- ABC News
Australia's snowiest weather in three years ahead for long weekend
South-east Australia will collectively shiver this long weekend as a mass of polar air from sub-Antarctic waters brings several days of showers, highland snow and well-below-average temperatures. The cold snap has the potential to bring the heaviest rain in one to two years across southern South Australia and south-west Victoria, a blessing for farmers who are desperate for relief from a record dry 16 months. The wintry storm is also likely to produce Australia's most widespread snow in years — ideal timing for alpine resorts for the opening of the ski season. The past two winters have been very lean snow-wise across Australia — both in terms of the ski season and non-alpine falls. And while winter 2025 is likely to be warmer than normal in general, the frigid air surging north will reduce speed once it reaches Australia, leading to a prolonged polar outbreak from Saturday, including potentially the most widespread snowfalls since 2022. Across the alpine regions, snow will fall above between about 800 and 1,200 metres for at least four days, comfortably below the elevation of our ski slopes, which sit mostly at a height between 1,400 to 2,000m. Modelling is confident the Saturday-Sunday period will drop around 40 to 60 centimetres across the major resorts, which in most years would equate to one of the best dumps of the season. Further snow will fall across the Alps from Monday; however, it's currently unclear whether the back half of the event will bring only a few centimetres each day or further moderate falls. For non-alpine regions, the prospect of snowfalls down to 800 metres raises the potential for a winter wonderland in numerous towns along the Great Dividing Range. In terms of extent, Victoria's snowiest day should be Sunday, followed by NSW on Monday when a dusting is likely on both the southern and central ranges, including around Oberon, Orange and the Blue Mountains. There's even the slight possibility of a quick flurry of snow in the hills around Canberra on Monday, and a few flakes may reach the northern NSW ranges on Tuesday. The Barrington Tops region of the Upper Hunter will also receive snow — falling on multiple days from Sunday onwards due to its high elevation above 1,500m. While major winter storms are more common from late June to August, it was only three years ago that a series of early June fronts brought similarly cold conditions and snow. On that occasion, well over one metre fell on the higher Alps in less than two weeks, so while this event is notable, it's far from record-breaking. For our capitals, temperatures will remain well above June records despite plummeting as much as 4 degrees Celsius below average, including the coldest maximums of: Sunday Adelaide 13C — coldest day since July 2024 (12.5C) Melbourne 12C — coldest day since September 2024 (10.8C) Monday Canberra 9C — coldest day since July 2024 (8.5C) Sydney 16C — was colder on June 4th (14.1C) Tuesday Brisbane 20C — was colder on May 30th (18.9C) The coldest air will bypass Tasmania, resulting in Hobart's maximums of around 14C being slightly above the June average. The presence of sub-Antarctic air well into the mid-latitudes will cause a low-pressure system to form and then track east through Bass Strait this weekend. Low-pressure systems bring rain, and thankfully for farmers, the system's slow movement will supply at least four days of showery weather. However, even before the low develops, a cold front will spread showers east through SA, Tasmania, and Victoria today with an average fall of 1 to 10 millimetres to whet the appetite ahead of the main event. As the low forms on Saturday the intensity of precipitation will increase, although totals will be highly dependent on location. Since winds spin clockwise around a low in the Southern Hemisphere, areas exposed to a westerly will see the heaviest falls on the mainland, including the SA coast and ranges, south-west and mountain Victoria, and the western slopes of the NSW southern ranges. Winds to the south of the low will swing from northerlies to easterlies, also leading to heavy falls across northern and eastern Tasmania. The forecast is more complex for Gippsland, with rainfall intensity dependent on whether the low track south to Tasmania or into eastern Bass Strait from Monday. The map below shows how much rain could accumulate over a five-day period, which would represent the heaviest falls in a year or two for some regions, including: As with most powerful fronts and lows, this weekend's system will generate a belt of strong winds. The Bureau of Meteorology has already issued warnings for strengthening north-westerly winds ahead of the first front for Friday and are likely to reissue warnings for areas of the coast and ranges when the low spins up near Bass Strait. The region likely to face the full force of the low on Saturday is along the coast near the SA-Vic border, where gusts may exceed 100 kilometres per hour, strong enough to bring down trees and lead to damage and power outages. Damaging gusts may also impact central SA and the NSW ranges on Saturday, before the threat eases slightly from Sunday onwards.
ABC News
an hour ago
- ABC News
Anthony Albanese faces a novel challenge in Sussan Ley
Anthony Albanese loves a trophy, especially a human one. He prides himself on his various "captain's pick" candidates — good campaigners he has steered into seats. Way back in the Gillard days, he was key in persuading discontented Liberal Peter Slipper to defect. Slipper became an independent and Labor's speaker. The exercise helped the government's numbers, but the bold play didn't end well for Labor or for Slipper. The government was tarnished, and Slipper, relentlessly pursued by the Coalition and mired in controversy, eventually had to quit the speakership. The affair did produce Julia Gillard's famous misogyny speech, however. Now Albanese has another gee-whiz prize — Western Australian Senator Dorinda Cox, who has defected from the Greens. Cox, after being defeated in a bid for Greens deputy leader, approached Labor and the PM drove her course to being accepted into the party. The manoeuvre makes a marginal but insignificant difference to Senate numbers — Labor will still need the Greens to pass legislation opposed by the Coalition. Taking in Cox is a risk, and some in Labor are looking at it askance. The prime minister's embrace of Cox contradicts Labor's argument when its Western Australian senator Fatima Payman defected to become an independent. It said then hers was a Labor seat and she should therefore resign. But this wouldn't be the first time expediency trumped consistency in politics. Cox, who is Indigenous and was spokesperson for First Nations and resources in the last parliament, has been a fierce critic of the extending the North West Shelf gas project, which the government has just announced. Albanese says he is confident she "understands that being a member of the Labor Party means that she will support positions that are made by the Labor Party". She has also faced allegations of treating staff badly. Labor discounts the claims against her, saying they are overblown and a product of Greens factionalism and toxicity. Certainly, she was given a tough time by the hard-left faction represented by deputy leader Mehreen Faruqi. Labor would be wise to ensure Cox feels supported in her new party home. Albanese perhaps calculates that the worst that can happen is there's a blow up and she defects to the crossbench. Labor could shrug and say, she was never really one of us. Snatching a senator from the Greens is particularly satisfying to Albanese because he hates the party so much. Last term, lower house Greens MP Max Chandler-Mather (defeated at the election) really got under his skin. More generally, the Greens held up important legislation, most notably on housing. In the new Senate, Labor will need only the Greens to pass legislation opposed by the Coalition. How new Greens leader Larissa Waters — who replaced Adam Bandt after he lost his seat — handles the party's relationship with the government will be crucial for the more contentious parts of Labor's legislative program. The usually low-key Waters will be under a lot of pressure. The Greens had a bad election, losing three lower house seats. Now they have lost a senator at the start of Waters's watch. Waters conceded on the Serious Danger podcast in late May that Labor had successfully run the narrative of the Greens as blockers. "So, I do think we're going to need to be quite deft in how we handle balance of power in this term, […] People want us to be constructive. They don't just want us to roll over and tick off on any old shit. They want meaningful reforms." Waters will want to pick her fights carefully and also find ways of pursuing the Greens' agenda where the party co-operates. The first deal is likely to be on the government's legislation to increase the tax on those with large superannuation balances, which contains the controversial provision to tax unrealised capital gains. Opposition Leader Sussan Ley and her team will confront some of the same problems as the Greens — when to oppose and when to seek to negotiate with the government. For his part, Albanese will have a novel challenge with Ley — what stance to adopt against the first female opposition leader, especially but not only in parliamentary clashes. After facing two alpha-male Liberal leaders, Scott Morrison and Peter Dutton, a new approach will obviously be necessary. As one Labor man succinctly puts it, "Labor can't monster a woman". There can be no repeat of Albanese, a frontbencher a decade ago in the Shorten opposition, interjecting to urge a female colleague engaged in a stoush with Ley to "smash her". For Ley, trying to deal with the Liberals' multiple difficulties in attracting women voters and candidates must be high on her agenda. Former Liberal federal president Alan Stockdale, one of the three-person group currently running the NSW division of the party, showed himself part of the problem when this week he told the NSW Liberal Women's Council, "The women in this party are so assertive now that we may need some special rules for men to get them pre-selected." Stockdale said later he was being "light-hearted". Tone deaf might be a better term. Ley jumped on him. "There is nothing wrong with being an assertive woman. In fact, I encourage assertive women to join the Liberal Party." The jury is out on whether Ley will be able to make any sort of fist of her near-impossible job. But in the short time she's been leader, she has shown she is willing to be assertive. She emerged from the brief split in the Coalition looking much steadier than Nationals leader David Littleproud, even though she had to persuade her party room to accept the minor party's policy demands. In her frontbench reshuffle, she was willing to wear the inevitable criticism that came with dropping a couple of senior women who had under-performed. As deputy leader, Ley adjusted her style a while before the election, toning down the aggression and sometimes wild attacks, that had characterised her performance earlier in the term. A Liberal source said she found her "line and length". As leader, she will have others, notably deputy Ted O'Brien, to do the head-kicking, giving her room to attempt to develop a positive political persona. Labor leaned into attacking Dutton — never afraid to name him. With Ley, Albanese might adopt the Bob Carr approach of avoiding using his opponent's name. At least until he finds his line and length in dealing with her. Michelle Grattan is a professorial fellow at the University of Canberra and chief political correspondent at The Conversation, where this article first appeared.
ABC News
4 hours ago
- ABC News
What the US warning on China means for our defence
Sam Hawley: Donald Trump is demanding America's allies massively boost defence spending. His Defense Secretary, Pete Hegseth, says a Chinese invasion of Taiwan could be imminent. And one of our closest allies, the UK, is rushing to invest billions of dollars in its defence force to make sure it's war-ready. Today Peter Dean from the United States Studies Centre at Sydney Uni, on what that all means for us, and whether our defence force is fit for purpose. I'm Sam Hawley on Gadigal Land in Sydney. This is ABC News Daily. Sam Hawley: Peter, we better start with these comments from the US Defense Secretary, Pete Hegseth, at the Shangri-La meeting in Singapore. He has warned that China poses an imminent threat to Taiwan. Pete Hegseth, US Defense Secretary: To be clear, any attempt by communist China to conquer Taiwan by force would result in devastating consequences for the Indo-Pacific and the world. There's no reason to sugarcoat it. The threat China poses is real and it could be imminent. We hope not, but it certainly could be. Peter Dean: Yes, so Secretary Hegseth I believe is referring to here is comments made by the Chinese leader Xi Jinping and by other members of the Chinese leadership, where Xi Jinping in particular has said that the Chinese military are prepared to use force and to achieve specific capability goals by the dates of 2027 and the dates of 2029. Pete Hegseth, US Defense Secretary: We know, it's public, that Xi has ordered his military to be capable of invading Taiwan by 2027. The PLA is building the military needed to do it, training for it every day and rehearsing for the real deal. Peter Dean: This is about requirements that Xi Jinping has set for the development of the People's Liberation Army and its subsequent Navy and Air Forces as well. So this is about its development of specific capabilities, but also its command and control systems, its ability to conduct exercises and its ability to conduct the types of high-end warfare to undertake, for instance, a strike across the Taiwan Strait. Sam Hawley: So what has China then, Peter, had to say about all of this, that it will imminently attack Taiwan? Peter Dean: Well, I mean, what Xi Jinping has said is that he reserves the right to use force to solve what the Chinese argue is a domestic political issue. They, of course, refer to Taiwan as a rogue state. They don't recognise the democratic system that the Taiwanese people have. And of course, they don't recognise the will of the Taiwanese people, who overwhelmingly identify now as Taiwanese and do not wish to be reunited with the mainland. Sam Hawley: Well, China's foreign ministry does say that the US is overstepping its bounds and stoking flames in the South China Sea in response to those comments from Pete Hegseth. Sam Hawley: Let's consider, Peter, now then China's military build-up and defence spending by Western nations. Now, our Defence Minister, Richard Marles, he also addressed that conference in Singapore, noting that Australia can't rely on the US alone to counter China's military strength in the Indo-Pacific. Richard Marles, Defence Minister: There is no effective balance of power in this region absent the United States, but we cannot leave it to the United States alone. Other countries must contribute to this balance as well, and that includes Australia. Sam Hawley: And he also pointed to that huge military build-up by China. Richard Marles, Defence Minister: What we have seen from China is the single biggest increase in military capability and build-up in a conventional sense by any country since the end of the Second World War. Peter Dean: So I think what Richard Marles is putting out there is basically reaffirming Australia's strategic approach and that this is not just something that we can rely upon the US to do on its own. It doesn't have the requisite levels of capability to respond to China in this way. It must be by a community of nations within the Indo-Pacific. And as a status quo power, Australia and the United States and others are attempting to maintain the free and open Indo-Pacific that we currently have and stop any state from being able to dominate that region and impose a sort of hegemonic control over the Indo-Pacific. Sam Hawley: All right. Well, Donald Trump, of course, and Pete Hegseth have urged US allies in the region to increase their defence spending. They want Australia to raise our contribution to 3.5% of GDP, but let's face it, we are nowhere near that at the moment, and that would cost a lot of money, wouldn't it? Peter Dean: Oh, yes. You're looking in the realm of somewhere around $41 billion additional to go into defence spending to raise that level of money. I think what's really key here is GDP as a measure of defence spending has become a bit shorthand in recent decades for sort of commitment towards defending your own country or contributing to collective defence. There is no magical number that the Australian government can get to that would make our country safe. And if you remember way back when Tony Abbott was vying to become Prime Minister, when Julia Gillard and Kevin Rudd were running the country, then there was a whole debate about achieving 2% of GDP, which we currently have. Now the debate has moved on to is it 3 or 3.5% of GDP. But of course, as I said, most importantly, this number is being used internationally as a proxy by both the Trump administration, but by other states around the world, relative to an individual state's commitment to both its own sovereignty and security, but also the collective defence of the region it lives in. Sam Hawley: Yeah, well, Anthony Albanese says we will determine our own defence policy. And he notes that Australia is on track to lift defence spending to 2.4% of GDP by 2033-34. Anthony Albanese, Prime Minister: We're provided an additional $10 billion of investment into defence over the forward estimates. We're continuing to lift up. That adds up to 2.3% of GDP. Sam Hawley: A long way, as we said, to 3.5% that the Americans actually want. But nations like the UK are now moving more quickly, aren't they, Peter? The British leader, Keir Starmer, he has promised to increase annual spending to 3% up from 2.3%. They seem pretty worried in the United Kingdom. Peter Dean: Yeah, look, the UK government has made a firm commitment to move to 2.5% of GDP in the next couple of years and 3% of GDP in the near future. This is off the back of their strategic defence review. News report: Under the AUKUS security pact with Australia and America, 12 new nuclear-powered submarines will be built to protect Britain's waters. Six new munitions factories will be constructed across the UK and thousands of long-range weapons will be manufactured on British soil. Keir Starmer, UK Prime Minister: We are moving to warfighting readiness as the central purpose of our armed forces. When we are being directly threatened by states with advanced military forces, the most effective way to deter them is to be ready. Peter Dean: Particularly in response not only to the war in Ukraine and the threat from Russia, but of course, most recently from the changing posture of the United States under President Donald Trump. And what we can see there is Keir Starmer, along with Emmanuel Macron from France and other key leaders in Europe, are working assiduously hard to provide for greater defence of Europe based on European needs. Sam Hawley: Well, the British leader Keir Starmer says the UK must be ready to fight a war. Keir Starmer, UK Prime Minister: A battle-ready, armour-clad nation with the strongest alliances and the most advanced capabilities equipped for the decades to come. Sam Hawley: What weaponry does he want? Peter Dean: Well, what Keir Starmer has announced is that he wishes the UK military to field a force of at least 7,000 long-range missiles. Now, if you look at what's happening in the war in Ukraine in particular, but also the war in Gaza and the Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, what you've seen is the explosion of the use of long-range precision fires in each of those conflicts. Sam Hawley: Well, the UK plans to pay for all of this by, in part, cutting international aid, just to note that. What's it really worried about then? Is it just Russia or does China come into this as well for the UK? Peter Dean: Look, I think it's both. I mean, what we're seeing is a fundamental changing of the strategic order of the world that we live in. The world is becoming much more dangerous. As our own government has said, we live in the most perilous times. We're seeing the rise of revisionist powers, in particular China, Russia, Iran and North Korea. And of course, the Russian illegal and immoral invasion of Ukraine has been really at the centre of this. This is the first time since the end of the Second World War that Europe has seen a large major power conduct a full-on invasion of another state in Europe. That is an ongoing war, as we see today. And it looks like President Trump's efforts at brokering a peace deal are faltering at the moment. So that war is going to continue on. Sam Hawley: And the concern is, of course, that if Putin succeeds in Ukraine, he has other plans after that, right? Peter Dean: Well, exactly. And Putin, again, I think we need to actually believe what the rhetoric is coming out of some of these leaders from some of these states. I mean, Putin made it very clear in the lead up to the war in Ukraine that he believes that Ukraine shouldn't exist as a sovereign state, that it belongs as a part of a revitalised Russian empire that he sees. And he committed similar acts in states such as Georgia and other parts. And of course, in Ukraine itself, where he conducted limited incursions. And of course, what we see in the South China Sea and the East China Sea is ambient claims from China that are not recognised by international courts or international law. And the Chinese consistently using coercion military force against the Philippines, against Vietnam, against Indonesia, against Taiwan and against Japan in various parts of those seas to push their own sovereign claims, even though they are not recognised in the international community and not recognised by those other states. And of course, we add in the layer here of the cyber domain and cyber dimension, that while we're largely in strategic competition with these states across the globe in areas such as cyber, we're in day to day limited conflict as we receive an onslaught of assaults in the cyber domain from states such as North Korea, Iran, China and Russia. Sam Hawley: All right, well, Peter, as you say, we're living in a less stable world. But what do you think is our approach when it comes to defence, the right one? Are we war ready like the UK wants to be? And if we're not, do we actually need to be? Peter Dean: I think we're definitely not war ready at the moment. If you look at the Defence Strategic Review in 2023, it made it really clear that the ADF was not fit for purpose. The government is in the process of lifting defence spending to try and achieve some of the outcomes that were set. We don't have 10 years anymore to wait to prepare our forces. Now, what's been happening in Australia has been a long discussion in recent years over the requisite levels of defence spending. This was happening well before Donald Trump was elected for his second term of office. And if you look back to last year, you'll see some very eminent commentators and experienced people in this debate, people such as Sir Angus Houston, the former chief of Defence Force and one of the two independent leads of the Defence Strategic Review, former Secretary Dennis Richardson, former Labor leader Kim Beazley, former Home Affairs Secretary Mike Pezzullo, have all called for increasing of defence spending to around about three percentage of GDP on defence. So this is a national debate that's been happening for quite a while. And now it's become much more direct, given that our US alliance partner has directly made the request to Australia to increase defence spending. Sam Hawley: All right, and what about this imminent threat that Pete Hegseth talks about that China will invade Taiwan soon? If that was the case, and we're not saying that it is, of course, but what would that mean for us? Peter Dean: This would mean you have the two largest economies in the world going toe to toe militarily with each other across the Taiwan Strait and in East Asia. It would always inevitably suck in states like Japan and Korea and Australia and others. And in all the estimates we have, not only would it be the extreme loss of life that would occur by the states involved in the conflict, you would spiral the global economy into a major recession, if not depression. You're talking about the most dynamic economic region in the world being consumed by conflict. And we will be putting ourselves in the risk not just of a global economic recession and a major war, but of course, we're talking about a war here between major nuclear armed states. The government's not wrong when it says we live in this really dangerous strategic age. And of course, Donald Trump is not helping that, right? He's not helping stability and security. He's, you know, in many senses, creating a source of additional instability in the global strategic order. Sam Hawley: Peter Dean is the director of foreign policy and defence at the United States Study Centre at the University of Sydney. This episode was produced by Sydney Pead. Audio production by Adair Sheppard. Our supervising producer is David Coady. I'm Sam Hawley. ABC News Daily will be back again on Monday. Thanks for listening.
