Markets wrestle method & madness of Trumponomics
You could say the bets are on the madness and the method of Trumponomics. There is a conviction that Trump will wield executive power to protect his image. Soon after the attack on nuclear sites in Iran, as crude oil prices spiralled to $80 per barrel, Trump warned derivative players with capital letters and exclamation marks: 'Everyone, keep oil prices down, I'm watching! Don't do it!' At the Nato summit, when Spain dissented on raising defence spending, Trump threatened higher tariffs. Trump has also repeatedly asserted (despite denials) that he used trade deals to force India and Pakistan to a ceasefire.
The idea of Make America Great Again rests on Trump's belief that the heft of the US economy and military must be leveraged to make allies pay for protection and an entry fee charged from others for the privilege of participating in the $29-trillion economy's markets. However, the MAGA dream is haunted by US debt and deficits. In 2024, it ran a trade deficit of $918 billion, federal deficit of $1.83 trillion, and a total debt of $36.2 trillion or 123 percent of the GDP. It is getting worse as the new 'Big Beautiful Bill', as per the non-profit Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, will add $3.5-4.2 trillion of debt by 2034.
There is a method to the madness of Trumponomics. As a solution, Trump has invested in an assembly of disparate ideas—stranded between claims and counter claims—to lift the US economy out. DJT believes tariffs will achieve multiple objectives—it is already garnering revenue of around $30 billion a month, and will bring down trade deficits and force onshoring of output. The foundation rests on cutting taxes and regulation to spur investment, some of which is manifest in the White House's 'running list' of investment declarations by Softbank, OpenAI, Meta, Apple, Nvidia, Micron and others. Trump's trip to the West Asia was geared for geo-economics. He has claimed this has brought over $2 trillion in investments.
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