What is Alberta Next?
Edmonton Watch
Premier Danielle Smith created the Alberta Next panel, which touches on immigration, pension and police. CTV News Edmonton's Nicole Lampa has more.
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Global News
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- Global News
Tariff uncertainty could cause ‘modest recession,' new summer outlook warns
The uncertainty around the tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump on Canada could cause a 'modest recession' in 2025, a new report by Deloitte says. The report noted that Canada's economy will grow by 1.1 per cent by the end of 2025, accelerating to 1.6 per cent by next year. However, the uncertainty around Trump's tariffs will continue to cause economic damage. Deloitte chief economist Dawn Desjardins said in the report that 'the extreme rise in policy uncertainty' in Canada's relationship with its largest trading partner, the United States, 'now exceeds levels experienced during the pandemic.' She said this 'is taking a toll on confidence with consumer and business confidence measures falling to the lowest levels outside the pandemic.' Desjardins said the uncertainty will delay business investment in Canada and hiring will be hit. Story continues below advertisement 'A modest recession is likely to occur this year,' Desjardins said. 5:42 What the looming recession could mean for your wallet Tariff impact The report said that while Canada's exposure to Trump's tariffs has been less than the average tariffs on other countries, with Canadian exporters complying with the Canada-US-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) escaping the 25 per cent Trump tariffs, the uncertainty is hurting trade with the U.S. Story continues below advertisement 'Recent data however showed a sharp drop in Canadian exports to the US which may continue over the months ahead especially for products, like steel and aluminum and finished autos, that continue to face steep tariffs,' the report said. Get daily National news Get the day's top news, political, economic, and current affairs headlines, delivered to your inbox once a day. Sign up for daily National newsletter Sign Up By providing your email address, you have read and agree to Global News' Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy Ontario will be particularly hard hit given its exposure to industries with large tariffs in place, the report said, with B.C. and Quebec also expected to take a hit. Canada's growth will largely be led by energy-exporting Alberta, as well as Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador, the report said. 1:08 Canadians cut back on charity as economic pressures mount Will the Bank of Canada cut rates? During its last interest rate announcement earlier this month, the Bank of Canada held interest rates steady. While the economy may continue to soften, the central bank has indicated that its focus will turn to keeping prices low. Story continues below advertisement The Deloitte report forecasts only two more interest rate cuts for the rest of the year from the central bank. 'With tariffs set to nudge inflation higher over the coming months, the Bank is likely to cut interest rates only two more times in July and September, when the economy is contracting mildly, before pausing and turn the stimulus baton over to government,' the report said. 1:59 Major policy win for Carney as major projects bill passes in Canada's House The Mark Carney government's 'One Canadian Economy' bill, which aims to knock down federal barriers to interprovincial trade and remove some regulatory measures for big projects, will also likely give the economy some boost by the end of the year, the report said. 'Many provinces are following suit to reduce interprovincial trade barriers and build more infrastructure, boding well for our economic resilience and long-term prosperity,' the report said. Story continues below advertisement 'Overall, we expect to see modest growth in fiscal operational spending and a ramp up in government investment starting in the final quarter of this year,' it added. 1:48 Carney to increase U.S. steel, aluminum tariffs if trade talks with Trump stall Jobs and household spending The report notes that employment has already taken a hit in Canada's manufacturing sector, which has been impacted by U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminum, softwood lumber and cars. Story continues below advertisement This is likely to hit hiring across the broader economy, it said. 'We are seeing that weakness spill into other industries with transportation and warehousing and business services also recently reducing their workforces,' the report said. Deloitte forecasts unemployment to be around 7.3 per cent in the third quarter of 2025, but drop below seven per cent by early next year. Weak job numbers will also mean Canadians are likely to spend less. Lower immigration numbers will also contribute to lower household spending, the report said.
CTV News
30 minutes ago
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CBC
37 minutes ago
- CBC
Carney's 'nation-building' projects bill faces uncertain future in unpredictable Senate
Social Sharing Prime Minister Mark Carney's point-person in the Senate is pressing for the swift passage of the government's landmark "nation-building" projects bill, but he isn't certain he can get it over the finish line before the upper house is scheduled to break for the summer. In an interview with CBC News on Wednesday, Sen. Marc Gold, the government representative charged with shepherding C-5 through the Red Chamber, said he wants the bill to pass this week with no amendments. But, with senators essentially free agents after a series of changes under former prime minister Justin Trudeau, it's hard to say what the outcome will be — given the criticism from some Indigenous leaders and environmentalists, Gold said. "I don't know what will occur," Gold said. "But I believe the bill as written is firmly anchored in the Constitution. I believe that bill reflects a clear electoral mandate that was given to this government. "This is an important step towards meeting an historic moment for Canada." The legislation essentially gives cabinet the ability to pick projects to speed through the regulatory process, with an eye to projects that can deliver an economic boost to Canada and help strengthen the country's autonomy and resilience as it grapples with a U.S. trade war. WATCH | What is Bill C-5?: What is Bill C-5 and what might it mean for trade and pipelines? 1 day ago Duration 2:42 The federal bill takes aim at trade barriers between provinces and should make it easier to build big infrastructure projects. Some hope the bill will translate into pipeline development, but there is notable opposition to the legislation as well. The Senate has agreed to study, debate and pass the bill by Friday — but an amendment could throw a wrench in the works. Paul Prosper, a Mi'kmaw senator from Nova Scotia, is promising to "slow down the process" with an amendment to give Indigenous people more time to weigh in and make their pitches to change the bill. The legislation itself states the government will recognize, affirm and "respect" Indigenous Peoples' constitutional rights when considering a project to fast-track. But there's a fear among some leaders that the consultation process with First Nations, Métis and Inuit communities will be inadequate given Carney campaigned on making final decisions within a two-year timeline. These leaders want protections for what's called "free, prior and informed consent" in the Indigenous legal sphere. "If you don't do it right, we're looking at some potential litigation in the future. It's best to be proactive now," Prosper told reporters last week. Amendment expected A spokesperson for Prosper confirmed to CBC News that he's still planning to propose an amendment to address some of the concerns raised by rights holders. An amendment from Prosper or anybody else could be a problem for the government, if backed by the wider Senate. Any legislative changes would also need to be agreed to by MPs — and the House of Commons has already risen and it's not due to return until mid-September. If an amendment goes through, either MPs would have to be called back to Ottawa or the bill could be left on the order paper for further discussion and approval in the fall. That's something Carney and his government want to avoid, given the whole point is to fast-track approvals and get shovels in the ground quickly. WATCH | Some 'learnings' from C-5 process: Carney: 'Some learnings' in how government communicated One Canadian Economy bill 5 days ago Duration 4:32 Asked by CBC's Rosemary Barton about Indigenous concerns over Bill C-5, Prime Minister Mark Carney suggested parts of the bill could have been communicated more clearly. Indigenous Services Minister Mandy Gull-Masty added 'there is a lot to learn,' but thinks Carney has been clear Indigenous Peoples will be at the table. "There's a process that the Senate has committed to, to get to a final vote on it by [Friday]," Government House leader Steven MacKinnon said. "It's a very important legislation that has massive support among Canadians." After Trudeau kicked Liberal senators out of the national caucus and instituted a series of reforms, most members of the upper house sit in loosely constituted groups where votes aren't whipped and senators can make amendments as they please. The Senate has acted quickly on some government bills while taking its time with others, including the last Liberal government's streaming bill and firearms law changes, which were debated for months. Still, Gold said he hopes a majority of senators realize just how important it is to get the bill passed this week. He said that would allow the government to start liaising with project proponents, premiers and Indigenous communities on what to approve. While acknowledging the timeline is quite fast, Gold said senators sat for hours of pre-study last week before getting the legislation from the Commons and, by Friday, it will be time to make a final decision. "We have done our job," he said. "The government will speak against amendments if it comes to that and try to persuade the majority of senators to agree with us." The legislation itself doesn't approve any particular project and there will be time for more in-depth consultations with Indigenous people and other interested parties when the approvals process for whatever is pitched gets underway, Gold said.
