Fantasy Baseball Trade Analyzer: Paying up for an emerging ace and other arms to target or move in a deal

Yahoo

5 days ago

After looking at some hitters who should be on the move last week, this week's batch of fantasy baseball trade candidates is composed entirely of hurlers. There are still plenty of pitchers who have been especially lucky or unlucky thus far, and therefore have the potential to be incorrectly valued on the trade market. And the headliner of this week's article, MacKenzie Gore, is in the opposite situation, as he is every bit as good as he his stellar numbers indicate.
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Gore is in the midst of a memorable breakout season. His 28.0% K-BB ratio is second best among qualified starters, and his 36.3% strikeout rate is tops by a notable margin. Gore has succeeded in spite of an unlucky .366 BABIP, and his 2.93 FIP is even better than his solid 3.47 ERA. Gore may not require the trade return of the top aces, but he is just as likely to have success the rest of the way.
Kirby's return from a season-opening IL stint didn't go as planned, as he was hammered for five runs across 3.2 innings. The right-hander makes his second start on Wednesday, and the advice here is to send a buy-low offer if he has another unsuccessful outing. Overall, Kirby was unlucky in his first start. His velocity was on par with previous seasons, he kept the ball in the yard, and he walked just one batter. He's still a fantasy ace.
The buy-low window remains open on Cease, who was mentioned in this article a couple weeks ago. He continues to be plagued by bad luck (.324 BABIP, 66.0% strand rate), while demonstrating excellent skills (21.1% K-BB ratio). Wise managers will use Cease's bloated 4.58 ERA and unimpressive 1.25 WHIP to acquire him at a discount, while burying the news that most of his ERA estimators are below 3.50. He hasn't earned a win since April 2, but if he continues to pitch as well as he has of late (33:4 K:BB ratio across his past four starts), he will rattle off a long string of victories at some point in the coming weeks.
Martinez failed to return from the IL in top form when he blew a save last Saturday. The reliever has middling numbers this year (3.75 ERA, 1.17 WHIP), and the recent combination of injury and ineffectiveness has reduced his value to the point where Martinez could be a throw-in for a larger trade. But the right-hander is skilled, and Arizona needs him to anchor an unsettled bullpen. If Martinez can get on track soon, he could be a top-20 reliever the rest of the way.
This one is a bit of a risk, but it's a move that could pay off in a big way. Weaver is keeping the closer's role warm while Devin Williams works out his struggles by being used in earlier innings. But no one told Weaver that's he supposed to give the job back, and he has currently has the second lowest ERA of any pitcher who has earned at least three saves. Weaver could hold the job for the rest of the season and rank among the top-5 relievers while anchoring the bullpen for one of baseball's best teams.
Although Peralta seems to be in the midst of an excellent season (2.55 ERA, 1.12 WHIP), his skills are no better than they were when he was frustratingly inconsistent in previous years. Peralta's 24.2% strikeout rate is a career-worst mark, and he has not offset the lack of whiffs by issuing fewer walks or inducing weaker contact. Instead, Peralta has succeeded through good fortune that includes a .239 BABIP and an 86.4% strand rate that is the fourth highest among qualified pitchers. He is likely to have an ERA near 4.00 from this point forward.
There are small signs that the wheels are coming off for Mahle. In his most recent start, he logged a 3:3 K:BB ratio while allowing three runs over five innings against an unproductive White Sox lineup. And he has been struggling to collect whiffs for over a month, having struck out just 18 batters across his past six starts. Mahle has the stats of an ace (1.80 ERA, 1.03 WHIP) but the skills of an average pitcher.
Baz has already been sent to waivers in most 10-team leagues, and those in 12-team formats should try to get something of value for him while they still can. The right-hander's swing-and-miss abilities have disappeared, as he has recorded a 6.3 K/9 rate since April 19. Without the strikeouts, Baz is unable to compensate for his shortcomings (9.4% walk rate, 1.65 HR/9 rate), and his 4.92 FIP is the 10th worst among qualified pitchers. A wise plan would be to find a 1-for-1 deal that is to your liking and then throw in Baz to sweeten the pot.