Milky Way's Chance of Colliding With Galaxy Billions of Years From Now? New Study Puts Odds at 50-50
CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla.—It turns out that looming collision between our Milky Way and Andromeda galaxies might not happen after all.
Astronomers reported Monday that the probability of the two spiral galaxies colliding is less than previously thought, with a 50-50 chance within the next 10 billion years. That's essentially a coin flip, but still better odds than previous estimates and farther out in time.
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Yahoo
a day ago
- Yahoo
Milky Way has 50-50 chance of colliding with neighbor galaxy
(NewsNation) — The collision of the Milky Way and Andromeda galaxies that scientists believed was inevitable has a much lower probability than previously thought. The Associated Press reported Monday that astronomers in Finland have determined that our galaxy has a 50-50 chance of colliding with the neighboring Andromeda within the next 10 billion years. The previous theory suggested that the two galaxies had a high probability of colliding within the next five billion years. 'Based on the best available data, the fate of our galaxy is still completely open,' the team wrote in the study, which appeared in Nature Astronomy. A team led by University of Helsinki researcher Til Sawala simulated all possible scenarios using the latest data from NASA's Hubble Space Telescope and the European Space Agency's Gaia star-tracking mission. According to the simulation yielded some surprising results. Astronomers discover strange new celestial object in our Milky Way galaxy 'A head-on collision is very unlikely, we found a less than 2% chance for that,' Sawala said. 'In most of the cases that lead to a merger, the two galaxies will indeed fly past each other at first, which will lead to a loss of orbital energy, and subsequently to a merger. 'How close they come on their first passage is very uncertain, however, and if they don't come very close, meaning if their distance is more than around 500,000 light-years, they might not merge at all.' Sawala said he was not prepared for what his team found. 'In short, the probability went from near-certainty to a coin flip,' the researcher said. An accidental discovery at a planetarium opens a window into the universe's inner workings The study relied on newer and more precise information, and the team took into consideration a 'more complete system,' including the potential effects of the Large Magellanic Cloud. The dwarf galaxy is the Milky Way's largest satellite galaxy, reported. Ultimately, the astronomers found that the Milky Way and Andromeda would inevitably collide if the two galaxies' orbits come close enough to affect a gravitational pull on one another. If they stay well separated, the merger won't happen. While the scenarios indicated a less likely merger between the two, they found that the Milky Way is far more likely to cannibalize the Large Magellanic Cloud. The research indicates that this newly theorized merger is likely to happen over the next two billion years. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Epoch Times
2 days ago
- Epoch Times
Milky Way's Chance of Colliding With Galaxy Billions of Years From Now? New Study Puts Odds at 50-50
CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla.—It turns out that looming collision between our Milky Way and Andromeda galaxies might not happen after all. Astronomers reported Monday that the probability of the two spiral galaxies colliding is less than previously thought, with a 50-50 chance within the next 10 billion years. That's essentially a coin flip, but still better odds than previous estimates and farther out in time.
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Yahoo
Is this the end of the world? How a galactic pile-up could bring Earth's violent finish: Cosmic ‘coin flip'
Forget killer asteroids and nuclear annihilation — Earth's ultimate fate may hinge on a cosmic coin toss. Astronomers have revealed that our Milky Way galaxy has a 50/50 chance of colliding with its massive neighbor, the Andromeda galaxy, sometime in the next 10 billion years — an intergalactic smash-up that could fling our solar system into deep space or swallow Earth whole. Cue the sci-fi panic — or not. 'It used to appear destined to merge with Andromeda forming a colossal 'Milkomeda,'' said Professor Alis Deason, a computational cosmologist at Durham University, per The Daily Mail. 'Now, there is a chance that we could avoid this fate entirely.' In other words: The end of the world may not be as inevitable as we thought — at least not from the galaxy next door. The new study, published in 'Nature Astronomy,' analyzed 100,000 simulations of the Milky Way's future. The findings — thanks to refined data from NASA's Hubble Space Telescope and the European Space Agency's Gaia mission — dramatically downshifted previous predictions of a guaranteed galactic pile-up in just 5 billion years. 'In short, the probability went from near-certainty to a coin flip,' lead author Dr. Till Sawala, of the University of Helsinki, revealed to The findings factor in the gravitational tug of neighboring galaxies — most notably the Large Magellanic Cloud, a much smaller satellite galaxy whose pull may be yanking the Milky Way off a crash course. 'The main difference between our research and previous studies is that we benefited from newer and more precise data, and that we considered a more complete system,' Sawala said to the site. While a 220,000 mph galaxy-on-galaxy collision sounds catastrophic, astronomers say a head-on impact is 'very unlikely.' In fact, only 2% of simulations showed a direct hit within 5 billion years. Most scenarios had the galaxies swirling toward each other, possibly merging much later — or not at all. Still, if they do collide, it could be a literal star show. 'We see external galaxies often colliding and merging with other galaxies, sometimes producing the equivalent of cosmic fireworks,' said Durham cosmologist Professor Carlos Frenk, via The Daily Mail. 'Until now, we thought this was the fate that awaited our Milky Way galaxy. We now know that there is a very good chance that we may avoid that scary destiny.' But even if Earth sidesteps this stellar shakedown, don't get too comfortable. As The Post previously reported, our sun is expected to become a bloated red giant in about 5 billion years — likely boiling away Earth's oceans or swallowing the planet entirely. So, yeah. Pick your apocalypse. 'If [the Milky Way-Andromeda collision] happens, it might take place after the Earth and the sun no longer exist,' Sawala told The Daily Mail. 'Even if it happens before that, it's very unlikely that something would happen to Earth in this case.' Translation: By the time the universe gets around to smashing the Milky Way, we'll probably already be toast. Still, some experts say galactic fate is more than just an astronomer's obsession. 'The fate of our Milky Way galaxy is a subject of broad interest — not just to astronomers,' Raja GuhaThakurta of the University of California, Santa Cruz, told the Associated Press. And while the galaxy might survive — barely — we may not. As Sawala put it: 'Of course, there is also a very significant chance that humanity will bring an end to itself still much before that, without any need for astrophysical help.' Talk about a stellar self-own.
