Sweden Urges EU to Freeze Trade with Israel Over Gaza Crisis
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Yahoo
8 minutes ago
- Yahoo
South Korea pledges to help companies cope with higher US tariffs
By Jihoon Lee SEOUL (Reuters) -South Korea will prepare measures to help companies cope with higher U.S. tariffs and expand into new markets, the Finance Ministry said on Tuesday, as it kicked off a task force to prepare the new administration's economic policy plans. On the domestic front, the government will come up with measures to boost short-term demand, as well as financial support for mid- to long-term technology development to enhance market competitiveness, it said in a statement. South Korea reached a trade deal with the U.S. last week, just days before President Donald Trump's threatened 25% tariff rate was due to come in on its exports to the United States. The trade deal set tariffs on exports from the Asian country at 15%, still higher than a baseline 10% rate and the near zero tariffs for exports under a Korea-U.S. free trade agreement. Still, topics left unresolved by the deal provide scope for more disputes as the two countries prepare for a summit between Trump and new South Korean President Lee Jae Myung in the coming weeks. Trump may use the summit to try to squeeze more concessions on areas such as defence costs and corporate investments, left out of the deal, while non-tariff barriers and currency could prove thorny issues, experts said. South Korea's Finance Ministry, however, sought to give a positive spin on the agreement. The deal reduced uncertainty over the trade environment, while a $350 billion investment package included in the deal will provide new business opportunities for companies, deepen economic cooperation between the two countries, and contribute to a more stable supply chain, the ministry said. The administration of President Lee also plans to prepare policy measures to foster new industries, such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors and "K-contents" and include them in economic growth strategies and budget plans due to be announced later this month. K-contents refers to a range of cultural and entertainment goods produced by the country ranging from K-pop to Korean dramas that have boomed globally. The ministry vowed to bring regulatory improvements to vitalise business activity, as it kicked off a meeting with the country's major business groups. Asia's fourth-largest economy grew in the second quarter at the fastest pace in more than a year on rebounding consumer spending and a surge in technology exports, but still faces headwinds from slowing global trade amid the sweeping tariffs. The International Monetary Fund last week raised its outlook for most advanced and emerging economies this year based on developments around U.S. tariff negotiations, but South Korea was among the exceptions, with its 2025 growth forecast revised down to 0.8% from 1.0%.
Bloomberg
41 minutes ago
- Bloomberg
What Is the World Going to Do About Iran's Uranium?
The US spent billions of dollars accounting for gram levels of uranium around the world since the end of the Cold War. It paid for UN monitoring and security summits while directly repatriating some 7,000 kilograms of the radioactive material from 47 countries to minimize the possibility that it could ever be used in a weapon. But on June 13, those decades of international effort were rolled back overnight. Even as Israeli attacks dealt grave damage to Iran's capacity to make new nuclear fuel, it eliminated monitoring of the Islamic Republic's vast inventory of enriched uranium. Iran's 409 kg of highly-enriched uranium could be stored in 16 transport cylinders At last count, Iran possessed 409 kg of near-bomb-grade material, along with 8,000 kg of uranium enriched to lower levels. The whereabouts of that stockpile hasn't been verified since the attacks began. Iran had warned it would take the material to a secure location if attacked. With the UN nuclear watchdog prohibited from inspecting for the first time since Iran began making fuel in the early 2000s, there's now the possibility that Tehran has taken its stockpile to a clandestine facility. By failing to account for or destroy the nuclear-fuel inventory, Israel and the US have provided Iran with 'strategic ambiguity' it didn't have before the war began — a bargaining chip in any potential negotiations over what happens next. The dilemma is how to respond. Here's a set of scenarios and options the US and the International Atomic Energy Agency could take in their approach to handling the situation. Click on the options below to see how events might unfold. Cold War Legacy The concept of strategic ambiguity was developed during the Cold War, most notably by Nobel Laureate economist Thomas Schelling, to manage uncertainty at the onset of the nuclear age. Effectively a measure of risk or threat, it allowed some level of guess work over capacity and intentions that was meant to prevent a slide toward all-out war. Israel, for example, uses it to manage perception of its own nuclear stockpile, neither denying nor confirming its existence. While intelligence agencies may be able to reduce ambiguity by using spies and analyzing satellite imagery, eliminating it altogether requires diplomacy or force. That's because nuclear material needs some level of physical verification to ensure it hasn't been diverted for military use. Less than 25 kg of highly enriched uranium is needed to construct a bomb. At last count, Iran possesses uranium enriched to various levels, which taken together is enough feedstock for two dozen weapons. Iran's Main Nuclear Fuel Making Sites After Israeli and US bombed three sites in June, governments are attempting to detect Iranian efforts to reconstitute activities The amount of ambiguity the US and Israel can tolerate is set to play a decisive role in their actions through the end of the year. How much of Iran's nuclear inventory are they willing to leave to chance? That's the question facing decision makers. Given the Trump administration insists it has obliterated Iran's nuclear program, the US and Israel may choose no further action. In such a scenario, actors would have to be highly tolerant of ambiguity, not least because the cache of uranium last seen in Iran's possession will be weapons-usable for thousands of years. Another possibility is that the US and Israel have low tolerance for ambiguity, and that they are willing to go all in on compelling Iran to verify the state and location of its uranium. In the absence of an Iranian capitulation, they will need to enforce compliance, potentially with boots on the ground for verification. Even with the most powerful weapons at their disposal, air strikes alone cannot eliminate ambiguity over Iran's fuel inventory status. Mutually acceptable, or negotiated ambiguity, is another potential outcome. A combination of remote-sensing, statistical methods and physical on-the-ground verification is used to account for material. That's what UN nuclear inspectors were doing before the attack, publishing the results every three months. Methodology This simulation applies game theory to test potential pathways. Key decision points correspond to real-world events including IAEA and UN General Assembly meetings in September, as well as the deadline to reimpose Security Council sanctions before they expire on Oct. 18. It also weighs the length of time required by diplomats and legislators to implement certain decisions. The first set of scenarios involves resolving 'ambiguity' over the location of Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium: • In our 'high ambiguity' scenario, sides take a low cost wait-and-see approach that doesn't include physical verification of the uranium inventory. • In our 'mutually acceptable ambiguity' scenario, sides opt for negotiations. They include physical verification of Iran's uranium inventory at the cost of allowing some enrichment. • In our 'zero ambiguity' scenario, the option is for escalation through military confrontation to force Iran to allow physical verification of its uranium inventory. We also look at potential outcomes and costs of the strategies used by Iran and the US. Scenarios were repeated in mixed-strategy simulations to test how the dynamics between Iran and the US may evolve. Key assumptions include: • Iran is 100% committed to retaining at least some enrichment capacity because not doing so would in practice result in additional capitulation. • The US needs to be at least 50% committed to enforcing a zero-enrichment strategy to involve troops on the ground. • The scenarios are constructed around the decision points in September and October and take into account the approximate diplomatic timelines required to convene meetings, draft resolutions and vote on the decisions.
Bloomberg
41 minutes ago
- Bloomberg
Trade Deal 'Losers' Have Economics on Their Side
Mercantilism — essentially the idea that exports are good and imports bad — is the most miraculously tenacious fallacy in economics. Many politicians accept it as true, but even those who understand that it's a fallacy find themselves playing by its rules. The mercantilist manual says that the Trump administration has scored huge wins in its tariff confrontation with US trading partners, and the partners appear to agree. Their 'defeat' has left them humiliated and unable to explain what they did. They might not know it, but what they did was smart. In trade policy, 'defeat' is often underrated.
