What to watch in New Jersey's primary election for governor

Politico

21 hours ago

Tuesday's primary in New Jersey is set to lay the groundwork for a high-stakes general election that will decide if Democrats can hold on in the typically blue-leaning state or if Republicans can continue to make gains.
The race to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy is the most competitive primary in recent history, thanks in part to a new ballot design and a large pool of prominent candidates. As one of only two gubernatorial races this year — and the only one with a fierce primary — Tuesday's results in New Jersey will be closely watched as both parties gear up for what's expected to be a close race in November.
In the Republican primary, Jack Ciattarelli — who came just points away from unseating Murphy in 2021 — is looking to seal the deal against his top opponent, former radio host Bill Spadea.
The Democratic contest, where six candidates are vying to replace Murphy, is more up in the air. Rep. Mikie Sherrill is seen as having the best shot, though the other candidates — Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop, Rep. Josh Gottheimer, New Jersey Education Association President Sean Spiller and former state Senate President Steve Sweeney — all have a path to the nomination depending on turnout.
But the demographic of primary voters is a wildcard in what's expected to be a low-turnout, off-year primary. More than 460,000 people voted early, according to the Associated Press.
The unusual possibility of most candidates having a real shot has led to record-breaking spending. A whopping $120 million has been poured into the race among candidates and independent expenditure groups — spending that is expected to ramp up in the general election.
Polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern.
Here are some of the dynamics at play in Tuesday's election.
Tuesday's election is the first without the so-called county line, a layout that gave party-backed candidates a better spot on the ballot and all but guaranteed a primary win. It also gave county party bosses unusual sway over primaries.
Candidates have argued the new format — office-block, the most common used across the country — gives contenders without the traditionally imperative support of party bosses a real chance.
On the Democratic side, Sherrill and Sweeney have the most support from county parties — Sherrill primarily in North Jersey, the most populous and Democratic areas of the state, and Sweeney, the only candidate from South Jersey, in that region. For the Republicans, Ciattarelli was the only candidate to partake in every county nominating process.
Many gubernatorial hopefuls used the death of the county line to make an argument against the party establishment. A handful of candidates shunned the endorsement processes, reasoning that their time was better spent with voters rather than appealing to the most tuned-in activists.
There are still some advantages that come with having the endorsement from county parties, including get-out-the-vote efforts. Party-backed candidates were also awarded the party's slogan on the ballot, though it's unclear how persuasive that will be for voters, many of whom are not aware of what the party's slogan is.
The outcome of the primary — if the victor is a candidate with significant establishment support or one who abandoned the process — will fuel the fight over the county line, which is expected to continue post-election. Republicans have raised the possibility of pushing to bring the line back. Separately, the federal judge overseeing the litigation that ended the county line system suggested the new ballot design may not pass constitutional muster.
President Donald Trump, who had a closer-than-expected loss in New Jersey last year, has been a consistent presence in the primaries on both sides of the aisle.
Ciattarelli and Spadea have long sparred over who is the most loyal to the president — a fight that has continued even after Trump endorsed Ciattarelli. In past elections, Ciattarelli was a Trump critic; he has since come around to support the president.
Ciattarelli is the favorite in the primary, not just because of the Trump endorsement, but because of his high name ID from previous campaigns. But if Spadea pulls off an upset, that would be the second New Jersey election in a row in which the president backed the losing candidate, after he supported the runner-up in last year's Senate GOP primary.
In the days leading up to this election, Trump doubled down on his support of only Ciattarelli. (The president has a history of endorsing multiple candidates in tight primaries.) He hosted a telerally for him, and over the weekend reupped his endorsement on Truth Social, writing that Ciattrelli's opponents 'are going around saying they have my Endorsement, which is not true, I don't even know who they are!'
The Democratic primary has also centered on Trump, with each of the Democrats using him as a foil in their campaign messaging. It's a tactic that likely appeals to Democratic primary voters — but could be a harder sell to the broader general electorate, many of whom helped Trump make gains in the state last year.
But Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin, who visited the state over the weekend, argued that 'there's a lot of buyer's remorse' when it comes to the president, which 'provides an opportunity to Democrats in this state to expand our coalition, bring people back into the fold who may have left us.'
'It's not only the right strategy, it's the right thing to stand up and fight back on what they're trying to do,' Martin said. 'I absolutely think we're going to continue to saddle [Ciattarelli] with the fact that he's best buddies with Donald Trump, and that doesn't help most hard-working New Jerseyans actually afford their lives.'
Both sides acknowledge the November election will be competitive, even though New Jersey has typically been viewed as a blue state.
Particularly on the Democratic side, the nominee will provide the latest insight into what voters hope the direction of the party will be. As the party out of power, Democrats nationally have struggled with how to get back on track ahead of the midterms. If Democrats nominate a more centrist Democrat, like Gottheimer or Sweeney, versus a progressive like Baraka or Fulop — and if that nominee is successful come November — that could be a sign of the path forward for the party.
Some Republicans have argued that Baraka would be the easiest candidate to defeat in the general election, given how far to the left some of his policies are — a notion that Baraka has repeatedly pushed back on. Baraka fired up progressives and garnered national attention last month after he was arrested at an immigrant detention center in Newark, though it's unclear if that spotlight will translate to higher turnout for him at the ballot box.
The electability argument is also underway in the Republican primary. State Sen. Jon Bramnick, a moderate Republican who has largely stayed out of the Ciattarelli-Spadea brawls, has asserted that he'd be the most competitive in a general election, given his success in Democratic-leaning districts. (Two other candidates, former Englewood Cliffs Mayor Mario Kranjac and contractor Justin Barbera are also running, though they remain longshots.)
Ciattarelli, meanwhile, has claimed he would give a boost to down-ballot candidates — a point that Spadea has chided him for, considering he lost a gubernatorial campaign twice already.
But Spadea, too, hasn't had the most successful electoral history. Spadea, who positions himself as a political outsider, has faltered running for office twice before, in Congress and the state Assembly, more than a decade ago.
This election will show if the third time's the charm for Ciattarelli, a former state Assemblymember who also ran for governor in 2017 in addition to 2021. Last year was not a great year for repeat candidates on the congressional level, as many of them lost despite having the built-in advantages of having campaign infrastructure more or less in place from their previous runs.
The entire state Assembly is up for grabs this year with competitive Democratic primaries across the state.
Traditionally, candidates without party backing — or who only had it in a sliver of a legislative district — have faced long odds at winning primaries. But the fall of the county line is testing that conventional wisdom.
Many of the state's most competitive Assembly races are fueled by Fulop, who has recruited Assembly candidates in around two dozen districts — many of them running against incumbents.
The decision to run Assembly challengers plays into Fulop's anti-establishment message and also could boost him as they function as de facto surrogates for his candidacy. But he has also faced some criticism for the tactic, including accusations of acting like a party boss despite railing against them. And some of his chosen candidates have received negative headlines over the course of the primary.
Tuesday will show if Fulop could provide some tailwinds for these candidates — or if he and his slate stumble up and down the ballot. But should the Fulop candidates be successful, it could shake up the dynamics of the Assembly's Democratic caucus, which is favored to maintain its 52-28 majority.
Some Assembly races are a reflection of local power struggles. In the 33rd Legislative District, the Hudson County Democratic Organization and local power broker state Sen. Brian Stack is backing Assemblymember Gabriel Rodriguez and Larry Wainstein for Assembly against Frank Alonso and Tony Hector, who are allied with North Bergen Mayor Nick Sacco. Sacco and Stack have a long-running personal feud, and the Assembly race has become a proxy battle between the two. (Alonso and Hector are also allied with Fulop.)
The neighboring 32nd Legislative District has a six-way Assembly primary. Assemblymember Jessica Ramirez and Jersey City Councilmember Yousef Saleh — backed by Fulop — are up against two party-backed candidates, municipal government employees Crystal Fonseca and Jennie Pu. Two other high-profile candidates, Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla and Katie Brennan, a former Murphy administration official.
Three slates of candidates are also competing in Bergen County's 37th Legislative District: Assemblymembers Shama Haider and Ellen Park, Fulop-backed attorney Tamar Warburg and Tenafly Councilmember Dan Park, and former Teaneck Deputy Mayor Yitz Stern and small business owner Rosemary Hernandez Carroll. The viable slates could make this a competitive primary.
Republicans are not facing as many contested primaries. One in North Jersey features two-time unsuccessful congressional candidate Frank Pallotta running against two incumbent GOP Assemblymembers, Bob Auth and John Azzariti.