Gold is ‘flavour of the month', says Richard Harris amid crisis hedging
"We have got the closing deadline of July the 9th for the tariffs to come back in line. So, we have got a lot of things coming up here and we are in danger of maybe some event, maybe it is this Israeli event, I do not think so, but maybe it is this event where the markets really say okay, that is enough. We have had enough. Markets," says
Richard Harris
, Port Shelter Investment.
Between Iran and Israel right now. US for the moment has opted to stay out of this war. But what are you making of the development between Iran and Israel? How bad could it get for
global markets
also in terms of crude?
Richard Harris:
Well, first of all, the Israeli thing, the Israelis have been for this for quite a long time. It is well known that Trump has tried to persuade them not to. They have clearly gone against his advice and the Americans now are obviously up to prevent any attacks against US areas, but they have made it quite clear that they have not really been involved.
by Taboola
by Taboola
Sponsored Links
Sponsored Links
Promoted Links
Promoted Links
You May Like
Dhoni's Exclusive Home Interior Choice?
HomeLane
Get Quote
Undo
So, Iran then if they are looking at retaliation, they are really looking at Israel. Now, this may come explicitly in terms of the kind of drone strikes that they tried to do earlier, but Israel's defences are quite strong there or implicitly, in terms of maybe terrorist attacks in other places, but it clearly does not help the situation. It adds to global uncertainty. It adds to the uncertainty in the market and actually Trump is probably feeling a little bit miffed that perhaps the Israelis have not quite followed his advice.
What do you think could be the impact on markets other than crude because what you are seeing today, of course, is a knee-jerk reaction. Most global markets were already scaling at an all-time peak, perhaps looking for a reason to profit take, but do you sense that we could spiral down further?
Richard Harris:
Yes, I mean we have seen a very good recovery in markets generally. I mean, Europe because it is a diversifier to the US, the US because actually we have had the Trump taco trade which is where there have been small pieces of good news that has led a recovery in US share prices. We are now at a stage where markets pretty well are back to where Trump started, that is actually an important sign. But we are also much more fragile.
Unemployment is looking less good than it was. Growth is looking less good than it was. We have got the closing deadline of July the 9th for the tariffs to come back in line. So, we have got a lot of things coming up here and we are in danger of maybe some event, maybe it is this Israeli event, I do not think so, but maybe it is this event where the markets really say okay, that is enough. We have had enough. Markets are very fragile and it is just waiting for that unknown unknown event in order to unwind.
Live Events
What happens to money flow in a case like this? I mean, this is not the first time that we have had two countries battle it out. We have seen that since Russia-Ukraine, then it was Israel and Gaza and now Iran again. We have seen that here in India as well with our own neighbour. But does it really impact money flows at all or do you think that is clearly restricted to tariffs and what comes of it?
Richard Harris:
We have seen a lot of these issues over the last few years and markets react. It takes a day or so to react and then they come back. At the moment, we do not really know what is happening. But the markets are quite immune if you like to a number of these factors. They survived two major wars. They survived all sorts of issues with Trump and tariffs and still they are trading at a reasonably high level.
Bull markets die hard. I would expect that this will end up being another skirmish that will disappear in next two to three weeks. Maybe wrong, but I think the probabilities are like that. I think one escalation could be if the Iranians do decide to see if they can choke off oil deliveries out of the Arabian Gulf, then the Americans will step in because it is important for the world and the Americans do see it as part of their holy mission to keep that gulf open.
So, I think that if you are looking at oil prices, they are likely to be quite volatile because you have got these different factors involved. But at the end of the day, the US will look to keep it open, whether that will then cause a secondary dispute between the US and in Iran, well, that is probably going to happen anyway, but I think that will burn at a lower level.
Is the most obvious trade right now is maybe go ahead and buy gold because at the morning today gold is already at near to its all-time high, holding on to the gains of over 1.5%.
Richard Harris:
Well, gold is flavour of the month, is not it, and the dollar it normally takes that view, but because we have had the whole issue with Trump and weakness in the dollar, I think it is being less successful. Of course, the other thing for those who actually believe it is Bitcoin, which the cryptos will probably do quite well in this environment. Crypto is actually quite focused on the equity market. So, they will come off, but in the very short term they may be seen as a gold substitute, but gold to my mind seems to be the key factor there that people will be looking at.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Time of India
16 minutes ago
- Time of India
Pentagon dismisses 'pizza index' in connection with Israel's attack on Iran, says they have 'sushi, sandwiches, coffee'
Pentagon dismisses pizza index report of June 13 when Israel attacked Iran and said they don't need to order pizza from outside. A Pentagon spokesperson reacted to the Pizza delivery index of June 13 when Israel launched military attacks in Iran and said they do not need to order pizza as there are many pizza options inside Pentagon and also they have sushi, sandwiches, donuts, etc. So, in a bizarre tracking, a surge in pizza orders around the Pentagon was noticed when the attack took place. "Nearly all pizza establishments near the Pentagon have experienced a HUGE surge in activity," the X account of Pentagon Pizza Report said. The account's post included screenshots of Google data showing the popularity of pizza joints in Washington, D.C. Domino's, District Pizza Palace and We, the Pizza were all dramatically above what was typical for that time of the day. The Pentagon Pizza Report also said a gay bar close to the Pentagon had "abnormally low traffic for a Thursday night" as Israeli strikes were underway. How are pizza orders linked to major geopolitical events The Pentagon Pizza Index, also known as the Pentagon Pizza Meter, is a quirky, unofficial theory suggesting that surges in pizza or takeout food orders to government buildings like the Pentagon, White House, or CIA can signal impending major geopolitical events or crises. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Giao dịch vàng CFDs với sàn môi giới tin cậy IC Markets Tìm hiểu thêm Undo The idea is that when government officials and staff work late into the night on urgent matters—such as military operations, coups, or international conflicts—they order quick, convenient food like pizza to sustain long hours in the office. The concept traces back to the Cold War, when Soviet intelligence reportedly monitored food delivery patterns to U.S. government buildings as a form of open-source intelligence (OSINT), dubbed 'Pizzint' (Pizza Intelligence). According to The Guardian, deliveries of pizzas to the Pentagon doubled immediately before the 1989 US invasion of Panama and the 1991 Kuwait liberation campaign called Operation Desert Storm. The Takeout, a food and culture site, reported in January that while there are a number of eateries in the Pentagon—where almost 30,000 people work each day, according to Arlington National Cemetery Tours—it doesn't have its own pizzeria. Pentagon dismissed the spike reported this time and said they have plenty of pizza options inside and the timeline set out by the Pentagon Pizza Report did not align with the events, Newsweek reported.
Time of India
22 minutes ago
- Time of India
High on mangoes! State's first mango winery gets inaugurated in Malihabad
Lucknow: Looking for a wine tour? Now, look no farther than the city outskirts. On Sunday, the first winery that is going to produce alcoholic beverages through mango and a variety of local fruits was flagged off in Malihabad's Mal area. Set up inside a 100-acre mango orchard, the winery has been set up with a budget of close to Rs 10 crore. Excise minister Nitin Agarwal inaugurated the facility along with other senior officials. Winery founder and operator Madhavendra Deo Singh said that the products would be available at the winery for those who want to buy it and day tour would be on offer after two months. A native of Mal area, Madhvendra said that four products are ready for the launch which have been produced only with the locally grown fruits at the farm and by the farmers in the Mal – Malihabad region. To be priced between Rs 300 and Rs 1,200 the wine bottles would be available in various sizes. "I want to emphasise that wine produced at our establishment is made using only natural ingredients and without any chemicals. I can assure you that we would not be adding ethanol or added sugars as we go forward as well," said the 40-year-old horticulturist who pursued MBA in agricultural business management. Singh set up a private company named Mbrosia Nature Living two years ago before signing up a memorandum of understanding with the horticulture department of the UP govt during the last investors' summit. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Esse novo alarme com câmera é quase gratuito em Senador Canedo (consulte o preço) Alarmes Undo To attract investments and boost income of the farmers, the excise department in March 2022 had introduced the concept of 'made in UP' wine. No excise duty is levied over the beverages that are produced using local fruits. Singh said that the four products that are ready to hit the stores have been made using mango, honey, mulberry, mint among other local fruits. "We have also made braggot, a hybrid beverage combining elements of both beer and mead," he added.
Time of India
22 minutes ago
- Time of India
NY court jails 6 NRIs in $15 million hawala case
1 2 Ahmedabad: A group of six Gujarati men, all living illegally in the US, were convicted of running a hawala network. They were found guilty of illegally moving nearly $15 million between the US and India over a period of six months in 2023. Their final sentencing, ranging from 12 to 27 months, was delivered by a New York federal court on June 5. The mastermind, Hirenkumar Patel, 40, was sentenced to 21 months in prison. He earlier pleaded guilty to participating in 42 cash deliveries amounting to over $7.7 million across various locations on the US East Coast. According to case details, the group moved the money between Feb and Sept 2023, using an informal transfer system that relied on physical cash deliveries and the use of informal brokers to transfer funds to designated recipients in India without the money physically leaving the US. Officials said the accused collected large amounts of cash from individuals in the US, which was then delivered to customers of a vendor operating on the dark web. This vendor converted cryptocurrency into cash for clients, the top ones being hackers and drug dealers. None of the six Gujaratis had licences to operate a money-transmitting business under federal or New York state law. The Federal Bureau of Investigation, along with the US Postal Inspection Service and the US Attorney's Office for the Eastern District of Kentucky, led the investigation. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Giao dịch vàng CFDs với sàn môi giới tin cậy IC Markets Tìm hiểu thêm Undo Rajendrakumar Patel, 52, received 27 months in prison; Brijeshkumar Patel, 32, was sentenced to 18 months; Naineshkumar Patel, 51, received 12 months and one day; Nileshkumar Patel, 33, was sentenced to three years of probation, while Shaileshkumar Goyani, 36, received a sentence of time served. All six had been living in the US without legal immigration status.
