Math is hard. Midterm math is harder. The lessons Mass. needs to learn for 2026
Dave Urban knows a thing or two about campaigns. And one of the things he knows is that winning them is all about the math: You add voters. You never subtract them.
And when he looks ahead to the 2026 midterm elections, where Democrats will try to retake the U.S. House of Representatives and narrow the GOP margin in the Senate, he knows one more thing.
Namely, the party that knows how to add is the party that knows how to win.
'Elections are all about math, right?' Urban, a veteran Republican consultant and former U.S. Senate staffer, said during an appearance in Boston earlier this week. 'It's one plus one plus one plus one. How do you add people? How do you get people on your team?'
Urban, joined by former Democratic U.S. Rep. Joseph P. Kennedy III, offered his comments in the wake of a televised forum on Monday at the Edward M. Kennedy Institute for the United States Senate in Dorchester.
The sit-down, aired by FOX Nation, featured Pennsylvania U.S. Sens. John Fetterman, a Democrat, and Dave McCormick, the Republican.
Both offer their separate lessons.
Fetterman, who won election to the Senate in 2022 as an icon of the Democrats' progressive base, has faced heavy fire for his outspoken support for Israel among other matters. On Monday, he and McCormick found common ground on several issues.
Last November, McCormick won the seat held by long-serving Democratic U.S. Sen. Bob Casey, while Trump flipped the Keystone State back to his column after losing it to former President Joe Biden in 2020.
Read More: A Pennsylvania Democrat and Republican come to Boston. Bipartisanship breaks out
Trump ran and won on the issues that are now causing Fetterman such consternation. Still, the question facing Democrats is whether the suburban Pittsburgh lawmaker's centrism might be a winning message in 2026 and beyond.
'Senator Fetterman is voicing a certain series of perspectives that can help pull together one series of constituencies. Obviously, he's alienating some others,' Kennedy, who served in the House from 2013 until 2021, said.
'That's part of the tension here,' Kennedy continued. 'In today's politics, Democrats should listen hard to what he and others have to say as we try to plot our pathway forward.'
According to Urban, one of the things that Trump did successfully in his victorious White House bids was to knit together coalitions of voters he needed, from white working-class voters in 2016 to the 'record' share of Hispanic voters who flocked to his banner in 2024, to take the White House.
'Talk about a big tent? The Republican Party — there's huge, huge growth among African Americans, Native Americans, Hispanic Americans," he said. 'Now, whether or not that's durable beyond Donald Trump, is a challenge for the Republican Party.'
'And that's what we need to do — how do we attract people who are, you know, kind of ... the old joke about Republicans before, the wine-swilling, country club-going ... that's not the Republican Party of today. The Republican Party of today looks more like" what the Democratic Party used to be, he said.
Urban pointed to the example of Beaver County, a solidly working-class suburb west of Pittsburgh. The county was once dominated by so-called 'Blue Dog' Democrats who were more moderate than the rest of the party.
'Now they're all Republicans,' Urban quipped. But he's backed up by the numbers. Trump carried Beaver County in all three of his White House bids.
The Republican took a little more than 58% of the vote in Beaver County in 2016 against Hillary Clinton, and again in 2020, when Biden flipped the state to win the White House.
Trump took nearly 60% of the vote in Beaver County in 2024, with former Vice President Kamala Harris at 39.2%, improving on Clinton's 38.2% performance, but lagging Biden, who took 40.5% of the vote in the steel town four years earlier.
Urban also pointed to the example of his former boss, the late Pennsylvania U.S. Sen. Arlen Specter, a longtime Republican who switched to the Democrats ahead of his 2010 reelection bid.
The move ended Specter's political career — he lost in the primary that year. But it portended a bigger shift in the political topography of the Philadelphia suburbs that Specter called home.
'All those Arlen Specter Republicans are now Democrats,' Urban reflected. 'So there's been this seismic shift in the body politic. And the challenge for both parties is that everybody's up for grabs right now.'
That happened in Massachusetts to a more limited extent last fall. While Harris handily carried the state, Trump improved on his performance from four years earlier, winning towns he had not won before.
To learn from these changes, Massachusetts Democrats held a virtual statewide listening tour in the days and weeks following the 2024 election. They got an earful from sometimes-enraged party activists who were looking for a winning way forward.
Kennedy, like many other Democrats, called this period before the midterms a badly needed 'time of deep reflection.'
And understanding winning math.
'A political party's objective is to try to build together the constituents you need in order to win an election,' he said. 'The Democratic Party needs to put some soul-searching [in] there.'
The piece of the Mass. budget that passes all understanding | John L. Micek
A 'historic battle': Mass pols protest Medicaid cuts in 'Big Beautiful Bill' | John L. Micek
Mass. Rep. Trahan's 'Les Miz' moment on Trump's 'Big Beautiful Bill' | Bay State Briefing
Read the original article on MassLive.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
38 minutes ago
Michigan House Republicans sue the secretary of state over election training materials
KALAMAZOO, Mich. -- Michigan Republicans are suing the battleground state's top elections executive over access to election training materials. The lawsuit filed Thursday is the latest escalation in a brewing dispute that began when the GOP took majority control of the state's House of Representatives last year. Since winning control of the chamber in the 2024 election, statehouse Republicans have repeatedly scrutinized the state's election processes and Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, a Democrat who is running for governor in 2026. The conflict comes as some state Republicans echo past false claims of election fraud in Michigan, which was a prime target of President Donald Trump and his backers after his 2020 election loss. Republicans on the chamber's Oversight Committee subpoenaed Benson in April, seeking access to training materials for local clerks and staff who administer elections, including access to the Bureau of Elections' online learning portal. Benson's office released some requested materials in response to the subpoena, but not all, citing cybersecurity and physical security concerns related to administering elections and the voting process. The office has said it needs to review the online portal for 'sensitive information" and make redactions. 'Since the beginning of this saga, Secretary Benson has asked lawmakers to let a court review their request for sensitive election information that, in the wrong hands, would compromise the security of our election machines, ballots and officials,' Michigan Department of State spokesperson Cheri Hardmon said in a statement Thursday. House Republicans say the goal of reviewing the material is to ensure clerks are trained in accordance with Michigan law. The House voted along party lines in May to hold Benson in contempt for not completely complying with the subpoena. The request for training materials originally came from GOP state Rep. Rachelle Smit, who has pushed false claims that the 2020 election was stolen. Smit is the chair of the House elections committee, which was renamed to the Elections Integrity Committee with the new Republican majority. 'Secretary Benson has proven she is unwilling to comply with our subpoena and Michigan law,' Rep. Smit said in a statement Thursday. 'She's skirted the rules and done whatever she could to avoid public scrutiny. It's become overwhelmingly clear that she will never release the training materials we're looking for without direction from a court." The lawsuit asks the Michigan Court of Claims to intervene and compel Benson to comply with the subpoena. 'The public interest is best served if the constitutional order of the State of Michigan is preserved and the Legislature can properly perform its duty to regulate the manner of elections in the state and, if deemed necessary, enact election laws for the benefit of Michigan residents,' the lawsuit says. Benson gained national attention for defending the results of the 2020 election in the face of Trump's attempts to undercut the outcome nationwide and in Michigan. Multiple audits — including one conducted by the then-Republican-controlled Michigan Senate — concluded former President Joe Biden won the state in 2020 and that there was no widespread or systemic fraud. Benson has remained a subject of GOP scrutiny this year. A Republican state representative introduced three articles of impeachment against Benson on Tuesday, and several of the accusations continue to cast doubts on the results of the 2020 election. With Democrats in control of the state Senate, it's unlikely the impeachment articles will result in a conviction.
CNBC
43 minutes ago
- CNBC
From bromance to bitter feud — a timeline of Trump and Musk's relationship
The bromance is over. An extraordinary social media feud between U.S. President Donald Trump and tech billionaire Elon Musk Thursday showcased the public fracturing of their once-close relationship. Here's a rundown of how Trump and Musk got here: Musk publicly endorses Trump following an assassination attempt at a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. Musk posts on social media platform X: "I fully endorse President Trump and hope for his rapid recovery." In August, Musk held a conversation with Trump on X. The glitchy livestream got off to an inauspicious start, with technical difficulties delaying the event for almost an hour. Trump and Musk congratulated each other in a wide-ranging chat, covering topics such as then-Vice President Kamala Harris, how Trump handled the assassination attempt and climate change. Musk later suggests he's "willing to serve" in government. The Tesla CEO posted an image of himself on X as a representative of DOGE, an acronym for the Department of Government Efficiency. In early October, Musk appears at a Trump rally in Pennsylvania, where Trump survived the earlier assassination attempt. Wearing a cap with the "Make America Great Again" slogan of the Trump campaign, Musk said Trump was the only candidate "to preserve democracy in America." Public displays of alignment continue, reinforcing Musk's growing proximity to Trump's political comeback. After Trump's re-election, Musk is appointed to lead DOGE alongside former GOP presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy. The department is formed via executive order with a mission to slash federal spending and bureaucracy. "Together, these two wonderful Americans will pave the way for my Administration to dismantle Government Bureaucracy, slash excess regulations, cut wasteful expenditures, and restructure Federal Agencies," Trump said in a statement at the time. Ramaswamy would later leave his role as co-lead of DOGE to pursue elected office. Maye Musk, Elon's mother, later comments that the two "just seem to be having fun." Two weeks after his election victory, Trump attended a SpaceX "Starship" rocket launch in Texas alongside Musk. At Trump's inauguration, Musk receives lavish praise from the president: "We have a new star. A star is born. Elon!" Musk joins Trump's CEO calls, alongside leaders from Amazon, Google, Meta, and others. Musk begins overseeing aggressive cost-cutting at government agencies. DOGE forces through return-to-office mandates and eliminates some remote-first government programs. Musk's DOGE team faces backlash after overreaching into agencies like the U.S. Institute of Peace. In early March, Trump tells members of the Cabinet that they are in charge of the respective agencies and departments they oversee — not Musk. The tech mogul later posts on X that the meeting was "very productive." Trump turns the White House lawn into a Tesla showroom and defends Musk as the electric vehicle maker incurs a global backlash. "He's built this great company, and he shouldn't be penalized because he's a patriot," Trump said at the time. The president also described the cars as "beautiful" and said he would buy one. Musk pledges to "significantly" reduce his involvement in DOGE over the coming weeks. Reports emerge of Musk being distracted and over-stretched, fueling concerns among Tesla and SpaceX investors. At the time of Tesla's first-quarter earnings in April — which missed expectations — the EV maker's shares were down more than 40% over the year so far. In an interview with CBS News, Musk publicly criticizes Trump's signature tax and spending bill, saying it counters the work he's been doing to reduce wasteful government spending. "I was, like, disappointed to see the massive spending bill, frankly, which increases the budget deficit, not just decrease it, and undermines the work that the DOGE team is doing," he said. Trump responded to the critique by saying he wasn't happy with certain aspects of the bill, "but I'm thrilled by other aspects of it. That's the way they go." One day after airing his criticism of Trump's bill, Musk leaves the White House. He thanks the president for the opportunity to run DOGE. Trump holds a farewell event for Musk, commending his work in government but says he is "not really leaving" and will occasionally return to the White House because DOGE is his "baby." Musk lashes out further at Trump's spending bill, calling it a "disgusting abomination" that will explode federal budget deficits. "Shame on those who voted for it: you know you did wrong. You know it," Musk said on X. The criticism quickly escalates into an all-out online brawl between Trump and Musk, with the pair trading barbs over the course of several hours. The U.S. president threatened to pull back billions of dollars in government contracts for Musk's companies, while the Tesla CEO suggested Trump could not have won the election without him. "Elon and I had a great relationship. I don't know if we will anymore," Trump said.
an hour ago
What Trump ordering an investigation into Biden's actions might mean legally and politically
WASHINGTON -- President Donald Trump has ordered an investigation into pardons and other executive actions issued by his predecessor, Joe Biden — launching an extraordinary effort to show that the Democrat hid his cognitive decline and was otherwise too mentally impaired to do the job. Trump, who turns 79 this month, has long questioned the mental acuity and physical stamina of Biden, and is now directing his administration to use governmental investigative powers to try and back up those assertions. Biden, 82, and now undergoing treatment for prostate cancer, dismissed Trump's actions as 'ridiculous.' Here's a look at what Trump is alleging, what impact it could have, and why the country may never have seen anything like this before. Trump directed his White House counsel and attorney general to begin an investigation into his own allegations that Biden aides hid from the public declining mental acuity in their boss. Trump is also casting doubts on the legitimacy of the Biden White House's use of the autopen to sign pardons and other documents. It marks a significant escalation in Trump's targeting of political adversaries, and could lay the groundwork for arguments by leading Republicans in Congress and around the country that a range of Biden's actions as president were invalid. 'Essentially, whoever used the autopen was the president,' Trump said Thursday. He then went further, suggesting that rogue elements within the Biden administration might have effectively faked the president's signature and governed without his knowledge — especially when it came to pushing policies that appeased the Democratic Party's far-left wing. 'He didn't have much of an idea what was going on,' Trump said, though he also acknowledged that he had no evidence to back up those assertions. A Trump fundraising email released a short time later carried the heading, 'A robot ran the country?' Legal experts are skeptical about that the investigation will do much more than fire up Trump's core supporters. 'I think it's more of a political act than one that will have any legal effect,' said Richard Pildes, a constitutional law scholar at New York University School of Law. He added: 'I think it's designed to continue to fuel a narrative that the administration wants to elevate, but courts are not going to second-guess these sorts of executive actions' undertaken by Biden. Trump has long questioned the legitimacy of pardons his predecessor issued for his family members and other administration officials just before leaving office on Jan. 20, people whom Biden was worried could be targeted by a Trump-led Justice Department. But Trump has more recently suggested Biden was unaware of immigration policies during his own administration, and said Thursday that aides to his predecessor pushed social issues like transgender rights in ways Biden might not have agreed with. It is well-established that a president's executive orders can easily be repealed by a successor issuing new executive actions — something Trump has done repeatedly since retaking the White House. That lets Trump wipe out Biden administration policies without having to prove any were undertaken without Biden's knowledge — though his predecessor's pardons and judicial appointments can't be so easily erased. 'When it comes to completed legal acts like pardons or appointing judges,' Pildes said, a later president 'has no power to overturn those actions.' Autopens are writing tools that allow a person's signature to be affixed automatically to documents. The Justice Department, under Democratic and Republican administrations, has recognized the use of an autopen by presidents to sign legislation and issue pardons for decades — and even Trump himself acknowledges using it. 'Autopens to me are used when thousands of letters come in from young people all over the country and you want to get them back,' Trump said Thursday. Michigan State University law professor Brian Kalt said the 'consensus view is that, as long as the president has directed the use of the autopen in that particular instance, it is valid.' 'The only issue would be if someone else directed the use of the autopen without the President's approval,' Kalt, an expert on pardons, wrote in an email. Yes. Article II, Section 2 of the Constitution bestows the president with the power 'to grant Reprieves and Pardons.' 'A president's pardons cannot be revoked. If they could, no pardon would ever be final,' American University politics professor Jeffrey Crouch, author of a book on presidential pardons, said in an email. 'There is no legal obstacle I am aware of to a president using an autopen on a pardon.' Kent Greenfield, a Boston College law professor, said, 'Once you pardon somebody, you can't go back and un-pardon them.' 'If it's done with a president's authority, I don't think it matters whether it's done with an autopen or not,' Greenfield added. 'The president's authority is the president's authority.' Trump's suggestions that Biden's administration effectively functioned without his knowledge on key policy matters go beyond questions about pardons and the president using the autopen. Even there, though, the Supreme Court ruled in 2024 that former presidents have broad immunity from prosecution. At the time, Trump celebrated the ruling as a 'BIG WIN' because it extended the delay in the Washington criminal case against him on charges he plotted to overturn his 2020 election loss. Such immunity would likely cover Biden as a former president. It might not extend to Biden administration officials allegedly acting without his knowledge — though Trump himself acknowledged he's not seen evidence of that occurring. Biden has dismissed Trump's investigation as 'nothing more than a mere distraction.' 'Let me be clear: I made the decisions during my presidency. I made the decisions about the pardons, executive orders, legislation, and proclamations. Any suggestion that I didn't is ridiculous and false,' he said in a statement. In a word, no. There have been allegations of presidents being impaired and having their administrations controlled by intermediaries more than the public knew — including Edith Wilson, who effectively managed access to her husband, Democratic President Woodrow Wilson, after his serious stroke in 1919. Wilson's critics grumbled about a shadow presidency controlled by his wife, but the matter was never formally investigated by Congress, nor was it a major source of criticism for Wilson's Republican successor, Warren G. Harding. More recently, some questioned whether President John F. Kennedy struggled more than was publicly known at the time with Addison's Disease and debilitating back pains while in office. And there were questions about whether dementia might have affected Ronald Reagan during his second term, before he was diagnosed with Alzheimer's in 1994, five years after he left office.
