Canada's recognition of Palestinian state will likely have minimal impact without U.S. support, analysts say

Globe and Mail

21 hours ago

The Canadian government's plan to recognize a Palestinian state in September reflects Ottawa's deep frustration with the Israeli government and sends a strong message that it supports a two-state solution, but analysts say it likely will have little impact without U.S. support.
Prime Minister Mark Carney made the announcement on Wednesday, saying that Canada intends to recognize a Palestinian state at the United Nations General Assembly. He said this is predicated on the Palestinian Authority's commitment to important reforms, including president Mahmoud Abbas's promise to hold general elections in 2026, in which Hamas could not take part, and the demilitarization of the Palestinian state.
The announcement marks a change for Canada, which has long supported a two-state solution, but has maintained, like many of its allies, that such recognition would follow peace negotiations between Israel and Palestine.
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Fen Hampson, a professor of international affairs at Carleton University, called it a 'major decision' and said it marks a significant shift in Canadian foreign policy.
'I think it obviously reflects frustration with the Netanyahu government and it's very much being driven by the humanitarian situation on the ground in Gaza,' he said, adding that other countries have expressed similar frustration.
With the prospect of peace talks seemingly distant, Canada has joined France, which has said it will also recognize a Palestinian state, and Britain, which will also recognize Palestine if Israel does not agree to a ceasefire.
Prof. Hampson said Canada's intention is 'part of a pressure tactic on Israel' that is shared with a new political axis between Ottawa, London and Paris. He said that while Israel has responded to international pressure in some ways – such as deploying air drops of aid and relaxing some restrictions on food entering Gaza – 'as far as Mr. Netanyahu is concerned, there's only one key ally that matters, and that's the United States.'
Thomas Juneau, a professor at the University of Ottawa and a Middle East expert, said he supports Canada's decision to recognize Palestinian statehood, but he was surprised by the timing given the trade negotiations with the United States.
Trade deal aside, Prof. Juneau said Mr. Carney's decision comes at a time when there's 'growing frustration in the international community with Israel's continuation of the war in the Gaza Strip.'
'On its own, Canada has no influence on this conflict, and this is not criticism of this or any other government. We're too far and we're too small. France on its own has no influence, or the U.K. on its own. Where other members of the international community, i.e. pretty much anybody except the U.S., can have some impact, limited but real impact, is if they act all together.'
He said that if more states recognize Palestine, it will have a limited but cumulative impact.
On Thursday, Portugal signalled it is also considering the recognition of a Palestinian state.
Prof. Juneau said with France, Britain and Canada making such announcements, they are creating an opening for other countries to follow suit. However, like Prof. Hampson, he stressed the importance of the U.S.
'One thing that we've known for years, but that has been very clear since October, 2023, is that there's only one country that can have influence on Israel and it's the U.S.'
However, Prof. Juneau said that if there is progress to be made on a peace process – and while very few are optimistic about that happening in the near future – then collective action by Western countries and others in the region does matter.
'On its own, this has no impact. The reason why it is a positive step is that as part of a broader strategy to move toward peace, to create the conditions to be able to relaunch a peace process, it is one useful step among many others.'
On Tuesday, ahead of Mr. Carney's announcement, nearly 200 former ambassadors and senior diplomats signed a letter urging him to recognize a Palestinian state. Among the signatories was Jon Allen, who served as ambassador to Israel from 2006 to 2010.
Mr. Allen said Mr. Carney's intention to recognize the state of Palestine is 'symbolically and historically and substantively important,' saying that one significant message it sends is to Palestinians that the West continues to support a two-state solution.
'Now, is recognition going to do something on its own? No, it's not, but it's sending an important signal.'
He said what's most troubling is that Israel's actions in the West Bank and Gaza risk making the two-state solution impossible – and that's why the recognition is important now. 'And even without the United States, sending a signal, recognizing Palestine, is sending a signal to Israel, to the United States, to the world, and to Palestinians, most importantly, that the two-state solution is important. We believe in it and we're going to keep trying to work toward it.'
'I am one that continues to strongly believe that it's possible, but if Israel were to continue to act as it is, it would disappear. And so countries are saying to Israel and Palestine, 'we still believe in that.''
Mr. Allen said he doesn't see it as a significant shift in Canadian foreign policy because Ottawa has long supported a two-state solution.
'This is, one could say, one more step in an effort to try and preserve what we want and hope for these two peoples, which is two states.'