The Iran conundrum - World - Al-Ahram Weekly

Al-Ahram Weekly

17-04-2025

Though Iranian and American negotiators are meeting again next week, a deal may not be as straightforward as first thought
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and American Presidential Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff met face to face for a short time in the presence of Omani Foreign Minister Sayyid Badr Albusaidi last week. The encounter took place just after the Iranian and American delegations ended their first round of indirect talks about a deal to eliminate Iranian nuclear capabilities in return for bringing Iran back into the international community after decades of sanctions and isolation.
The 'direct' encounter may have given US President Donald Trump some satisfaction. When he first announced the start of meetings with the Iranians, he stated it would be 'direct talks', but Teheran insisted on indirect talks – at least for the initial rounds. That is why when asked by reporters onboard Air Force One to comment on the talks, Trump said, 'I can't tell you because nothing matters until you get it done so I don't like talking about it but it's going ok. The Iran situation is going pretty good, I think.'
The official conclusion in Tehran and Washington was that the meeting was 'positive and constructive'. Albusaidi posted on X thanking both Aragchi and Witkoff 'for joining the negotiations aimed at global peace, security, and stability'. Albusaidi was the intermediary moving between the two delegations for more than two hours, carrying the messages across.
It was Oman that first hosted the Iranian-American negotiations leading to the previous deal in 2015. But those talks under the Obama administration were secret. In his first presidency, Trump withdrew the US from a deal in 2018 and imposed more sanctions on Iran. The previous agreement, called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), was between Iran and major powers and involved the curtailment of the Iranian nuclear programme in return for lifting sanctions and unfreezing Iranian seized assets.
Iran said it adhered to its part of JCPOA, enriching uranium to a low degree of 3.67 per cent purity and keeping to a stockpile of enriched uranium at 300 kg. It accused other participants of not committing to their side of the deal. Since the US withdrew from JCPOA it is said that Tehran increased its enrichment efforts, now reaching a level of 60 per cent purity, which is close to the military grade of 90 per cent enriched uranium needed to make a nuclear bomb. The Iranian stockpile of enriched uranium is now thought to be more than 8,200 kg.
Though Tehran has long maintained that its nuclear programme is for peaceful purposes and it never intends to produce a bomb, Israel has maintained the narrative of a regional threat from Iranian nuclear arms development. In the last couple of years, Iran suffered from Israeli attacks and assassination of nuclear scientists. Besides, its proxy groups in Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen are weakened after Israeli attacks since the war on Gaza started in late 2023.
After enduring decades of severe sanctions, the Iranian economy is in very bad shape. The country needs a deal that saves it more wars and sanctions. The Trump administration doesn't need to be more involved in the region or give in to an Israeli push for a war on Iran, so it is in both parties' interest to quickly conclude a deal.
Regional powers are also keen on a deal. Saudi Arabia was the first to welcome the outcome of the Muscat talks, and its foreign minister called his Omani counterpart shortly after the meeting ended. In a statement carried by official news agency SPA, 'The Ministry of Foreign Affairs expressed the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia's welcoming of the Sultanate of Oman hosting talks between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States, affirming the Kingdom's support for these efforts and for adopting dialogue as a means to resolve all regional and international disputes. The Kingdom expressed its aspiration that the outcomes of the Iranian-American talks would contribute to strengthening joint efforts to enhance security, stability, and peace in the region and the world.'
As one Saudi academic and political analyst told Al-Ahram Weekly, 'the Kingdom supports a deal that eases the tension in the region. That would be good for all peoples on both sides of the Gulf, letting them focus on development and prosperity in a peaceful way rather than infighting.' Yet, he stressed the need for guarantees that any deal wouldn't embolden the Persian neighbour to resume its 'destabilising' activities by interfering in its Arab neighbours internal affairs. When asked if American and Iranian reconciliation could help efforts to end the Yemen crisis, he emphasised the Saudi position of a 'political solution that spares the Yemeni people years of destruction and humanitarian suffering… Any regional development that leads to this is very welcome.'
The two sides announced that the next meeting might be on Saturday and would involve discussing 'frameworks of agreement.' Should this prove successful, a deal could be announced just before Trump visits Saudi Arabia and the region some time next month.
But many analysts think reaching a deal is not going to be easy, even though the Trump administration might be ready to offer some concessions. One possible option is to unlock six billion dollars of Iranian oil money held in accounts in Doha, Qatar. Iran was supposed to be able to access the funds, frozen during Trump's first term, as part of a prisoner swap deal with the Biden administration in September 2023.
Long term distrust between Tehran and Washington might complicate an already complex issue. National pride would prevent Iran from fully dismantling its nuclear programme, while Washington, with Israeli lobbying, might not want to ease all pressures on Iran and seek to keep the country in check.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 17 April, 2025 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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