Labour is losing Wales

New Statesman​

21 hours ago

Photo byIn 1900, a few months after founding the Labour Party, Keir Hardie was elected as an MP for Merthyr Tydfil, a mining town in the south Wales valleys. From then onwards, Merthyr Tydfil was a safe Labour seat; mirroring Wales as a whole, it has continually been represented by the party. Ninety-nine years after Hardie was elected in Merthyr Tydfil, the Senedd (which was initially named the Welsh Assembly) was founded. Only Labour have been in government or held the post of first minister in the 26 years since Welsh devolution began in Cardiff Bay.
But over the past few years, things have begun to go awry for Welsh Labour. A recent poll from YouGov predicted the party would win just 18 per cent in next year's Senedd elections, behind Reform UK on 25 per cent and Plaid Cymru on 30 per cent. The elections in May 2026 will be the first to be held under a proportional voting system since the Senedd was founded, making it far less likely that Labour will cling on to power. If voting took place today, Wales would probably have its first Plaid Cymru first minister.
Where did it all go wrong for Labour? A succession of unpopular policies including the introduction of a 20mph speed limit and the sustainable farming scheme certainly pushed away some corners of their voting base. The resignation of Vaughan Gething (after just four months as First Minister) following allegations that he had perjured himself at a Covid-19 inquiry, has equally harmed the party's standing.
The longevity of Labour's time in power at the Senedd has also left voters longing for a change. Living standards in Wales have long been in decline; in comparison with the rest of the UK, waiting times in the Welsh NHS are much higher and educational performance has fallen in Wales more than any other UK nation. And with Keir Starmer now in power in Westminster, the party in Wales do not have the turbulence of a Conservative government in Westminster to take the blame.
Last year's closure of the blast furnaces at the Tata Steelworks in Port Talbot also speaks to a wider sense among Welsh voters that Wales is always an afterthought. When Parliament was recalled to save the steelworks at Scunthorpe earlier this year, many in Wales asked: why wasn't the same treatment given to us? Though decisions over the fate of Port Talbot sat with the government in Westminster (and therefore were primarily made under the previous Conservative administration), many voters still blame the Labour government in Cardiff Bay. It did, after all, happen on their watch.
Nigel Farage launched Reform's campaign for the Senedd in Port Talbot yesterday (he launched the party's 2024 general election campaign in Merthyr Tydfil). He told journalists that his party would re-open the blast furnaces in a move to reindustrialise Wales (a promise that will be impossible to fulfil, as once they have been switched off, blast furnaces cannot be reignited unless they have gone through a process called a 'salamander tap').
Reform do not currently have a leader in Wales (the last person to fill the role, Nathan Gill, quit the party in 2021). But in order to appear in any upcoming leadership debates, whoever is chosen must be a candidate for the Senedd. Some have speculated that Farage may run in a seat Reform are guaranteed to lose so that he can take the reins himself (if he wins, however, he will have to either resign immediately or give up his Parliamentary seat). The party has already made small gains in the south Wales valleys, winning a by-election to Torfaen council last year. Members of the Welsh Labour government look at Farage's influence with horror.
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Mark Drakeford, the Welsh government finance minister (who stepped down as first minister last year, after six years in the role) told me, 'I do not believe that sending a former English public-school boy to Port Talbot is the best way to resonate with Welsh voters, I'm afraid.' To Drakeford, Farage has underestimated the strength of knowledge and feeling among residents of Port Talbot and their connection to the steelworks; 'I don't think anything he is saying will have any credibility in the minds of those people who have worked so hard in the local community to secure a long-term future for steelmaking.'
The real threat to Welsh Labour, Drakeford pointed out, is not from Reform, but from other progressive parties. And as mentioned previously, current polling backs this up. 'The real struggle for voter support in Wales has always been among progressive parties,' Drakeford said, 'there has always been around 25 per cent or so of the Welsh population who opt for parties that see themselves on the right side of the political spectrum.' Instead of attempting to win those voters back from Reform, Drakeford said 'the real contest must be for the support of the other 75 per cent'.
This approach contrasts with what has been recently adopted by Starmer (the Prime Minister has said that Farage is now his main opponent). It is no secret that Welsh Labour have not always agreed with the decisions taken by their counterparts in Westminster. The current first minister, Eluned Morgan criticised Starmer's 'divisive language' following his Island of Strangers immigration speech and has called for the abolition of the two-child benefit cap (one insider told me the pair are currently not on speaking terms).
A Labour loss in Wales next year would be incredibly significant. For more than 100 years, the party has built a strong base there, particularly in the South Wales Valleys. But it has taken its eye off the ball. Labour's fate in Wales should sit as a warning to Starmer's government in Westminster: do not let longevity become complacency, and don't leave Labour's progressive base behind.
This piece first appeared in the Morning Call newsletter; receive it every morning by subscribing on Substack here
[See also: Reform needs Zia Yusuf]
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