Guardian Essential poll: most Australians doubt we will ever receive Aukus submarines amid Trump uncertainty
The latest Guardian Essential poll gives a lukewarm assessment of Sussan Ley's first months as opposition leader, with voters evenly split between approval, disapproval and those who 'don't know'. While Anthony Albanese remains in his post-election honeymoon period, some voters say Australia should be prepared to negotiate with the US on medicines, biosecurity and crackdowns on tech giants to get a better deal on tariffs.
The Guardian Essential poll of 1,012 voters found 38% of voters thought the Aukus submarine deal would make Australia more secure, 21% thought it would make Australia less secure, and 41% thought it would not affect Australia's security. The sentiments were broadly similar to results when that question was last asked a year ago.
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But when asked how likely that the US would deliver nuclear submarines to Australia, only 6% said it was very likely, and another 34% said quite likely, while 60% said they thought it was not likely.
The US is conducting a review of Aukus amid doubts about America's shipbuilding capacity. Australia will buy three to five secondhand Virginia class nuclear submarines from America in the 2030s, before the new Aukus submarines start rolling off production lines in Australian shipyards.
But US submarine fleet numbers are a quarter below their target, with the country producing boats at just over half the rate it needs to service its own defence requirements. The US Navy estimates it needs to build Virginia-class submarines at a rate of 2.00 a year to meet its own defence requirements, and about 2.33 to have enough boats to sell any to Australia. It is building Virginia-class submarines at a rate of about 1.13 a year, senior admirals say.
Just 40% of poll respondents thought Australia had a positive relationship with the US, down from 65% the last time this question was asked in November 2023 when Joe Biden was president. That figure compared to 69% of voters believing Australia had a positive relationship with the United Kingdom, 59% with the European Union and Pacific nations, and 31% with China.
Trump on Tuesday indicated he may pursue higher base tariff rates. While Australia is still seeking exemptions or favourable deals on key exports, most voters want the government to stick by key policy positions – but a large number think some should be up for negotiation.
About 60% of voters want Australia to stand by the pharmaceutical benefits scheme, but 31% say we should be prepared to negotiate and 9% think we should scrap it to avoid higher tariffs; 57% favour standing by the social media ban, with 42% saying it should be negotiated or scrapped; on biosecurity, 54% say current settings should stay, but 45% say negotiate or scrap those rules.
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The numbers were higher for proposed new rules on American companies, with 47% saying Australia should negotiate or scrap plans to make American companies pay more tax here, and only 46% saying the government should stand by its plan to make tech platforms pay for local news under the mooted news media bargaining incentive.
Separately, 31% of voters say Australia should consider levelling our own tariffs on the US, while 45% say we should prioritise staying on good terms with Trump and keep negotiating for exemptions.
Staying with international affairs, only 15% of Australians believe Israel is justified in continuing its military action in Gaza. Some 41% of voters want Israel to permanently withdraw its military action, while 25% want a temporary ceasefire.
In Ley's first Essential poll on her performance, 33% of Australians approved of the job she was doing, with 35% disapproving. The remainder, around a third of voters, answered 'don't know'.
Albanese retains his net positive approval rating in the first poll of his second term. Half of voters approved of the job he is doing, with 41% disapproving, for a net approval of +8.
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