Middle East power balance has tilted dramatically to Israel

Euronews

13-06-2025

Iran suffered huge military losses during the Israeli strikes and has limited capacities to hit back, according to an independent security expert Claude Moniquet. Moniquet served as an intelligence officer in the French services and has written several books about the region. He told Euronews that Israel committed an act of war on Iran.
"I will not call an operation that involved more than 200 planes, missiles, 300 strikes, 100 sites hit, and at least a dozen or fifteen Iranian leaders eliminated a limited operation. It is an act of war that has been expected for 25 years. For 25 years, the Israelis have been saying that they will not tolerate Iran having an atomic bomb. Iran has been warned multiple times."
Moniquet said that Iran now has four options by way of response, of which the first - sending drones towards Israel - has already begun.
"They have already started trying to use drones to deliver direct strikes on Israel. The second possibility is a joint operation with proxies like Yemen's Huthis," he said.
The third possibility, according to Moniquet, that they will deploy "one way or another" in the long or medium term, is "the use of terrorism".
"Iran is a terrorist state that has attacked, including Europe and France, multiple times over the past 40 years," he said.
"And the last possibility, if there were an escalation, would be the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz, which would be a disaster for Europe."
He added that the chance of a full-scale war in the region is not out of the question, but added that Iran has limited capacities for that.
"The extent of their responses will determine what happens next, and we can effectively fall into an all-out war. Now, quite clearly, I don't think the Iranians have the capacity to wage an all-out war against Israel, which has air supremacy in the region. We have seen that Iran's military-security system is totally disorganised."
According to Moniquet, Israel systematically weakened Iranian proxies in the region with the war against Hezbollah and Hamas in the past few years, and now delivered a blow that will change the balance of power.
"Iran today has undergone, whatever they say, a very, very heavy military failure, and it is not over. However, behind Hezbollah, behind Hamas, behind the Houthis in Yemen, what do we find? We find the Iranians. So what is happening, if the Israelis go far enough, is likely to change the whole geopolitical map in the Middle East."
The expert added that this could also offer a chance for the Iranian population to revolt against the its leadership.
Claude Moniquet said the conflict puts Europe on a high security risk footing.
"They may well ask a Hezbollah cell or an Iranian cell like the one that was dismantled in London a few weeks ago to strike somewhere in Europe. This is an important possibility, and it means that Jewish communities, Israeli diplomatic and commercial interests, Israeli boats, Israeli planes, but probably also American interests, are now in a position of risk in Europe and could be hit."
Moniquet said that the European Union has lost influence in the region and has no say in diplomacy over the future of the Middle East.
"For Europe, but everyone sees that the European, as they say in soccer, is sitting on the sidelines. Negotiations were taking place between the Americans and the Iranians, the Europeans were excluded. Europeans have been pretty much excluded from all major diplomatic manouevres around the war in Gaza or the war in Lebanon."
The main reason behind this loss of influence, Moniquet believes, is to be found in Europe's dwindling military power.
The severity of the European Union's housing crisis has made it harder for citizens to find a home, as a combination of housing supply shortages and high rents continues to be a major issue.
According to Eurostat, house prices went up by 48% and rents went up by 22% in 2023. Meanwhile, inflation drove overall prices up by 36%.
And the burden has largely affected younger people the most.
On average in 2023, EU households spent 19.7% of their disposable income on housing. In the same year, Eurostat data shows that young people make up a significant portion of the population that spend at least 40% of their income on housing.
Furthermore, 26% of young people in the EU live in overcrowded housing, 9.2% more than the overall population.
Speaking to Euronews, Housing Europe secretary general Sorcha Eduards said "We are compromising the capacity of youth to become independent, start their own lives, start their families. So again, in countries where we have a critical mass of limited-profit housing, we've seen that the age for becoming independent is indeed higher than countries that don't have that."
"So, I think this already signals that increasing the amount of limited-profit housing and improving access criteria helps young people actually access that (housing)."
The crux of solving this issue can be identified with a change in mentality.
"We've relied too much on market forces, and then of course since 2008 we've had, with the great financial crisis, a huge impact on the capacity of the construction sector, so there was a big reduction in the number of companies delivering but also an increase in difficulty of households in actually paying their bills," says Eduards.
"And I think when you look at that, we wouldn't be here, we wouldn't be talking about the housing crisis if rents and house prices had stayed aligned with income. But we've had a huge, let's say, differentiation now," she notes.
When it comes to short-term rentals, Eduards explained that it "is another example where public policy has not kept up with societal needs. So, we are not making sure that our cities can house our students, that they can house our low and middle-income groups and that they can adequately house the elderly. We are allowing short-term lets to erode long-term lets."
"We end up in a situation where we have empty apartments that are merely an investment. We are pushing students out of school, and families to the outskirts. We are pushing workers that are needed in the city centre to the outskirts, causing them a huge amount of stress."
Some countries have already identified what the problem is. In the EU, some countries have already set up sustainable housing models. In Germany, 3.2 million people live in cooperatives, a not-for-profit model which is entirely democratic.
In Belgium's Flanders region, poverty was reduced by 40% amongst people who have access to social housing.
Denmark has launched programmes to ensure that young people can have access to scholarships, and that they can avoid slipping into a long-term "couch-surfing" situation, putting them at risk of becoming homeless.
In the Netherlands, over 20–30% of residents live in limited-profit housing.
The ideas are there, says Eduards, but we need to rely a lot less on market forces and go back to viewing housing as a fundamental right.
"I think it's a time for a change in the paradigm. It's a time to build up a critical mass of housing that is responsible, that caters to our societal needs, and is not only about maximising short-term profit month-to-month", she argues.