Cocoa Prices Plunge on Expectations of a Bigger Ghana Cocoa Crop
Cocoa prices today fell sharply to 1-week lows on the outlook for larger cocoa production in Ghana, the world's second-largest cocoa producer. The Ghana Cocoa Board said today that it expects the 2025/26 Ghana cocoa crop to increase by +8.3% y/y to 650,000 from 600,000 MT in 2024/25.
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The rebound in current cocoa inventories is also bearish for prices. Since falling to a 21-year low of 1,263,493 bags on January 24, ICE-monitored cocoa inventories held in US ports climbed to a 9-3/4 month high of 2,363,861 bags on June 18.
Cocoa prices have support from concern about tighter cocoa supplies from the Ivory Coast. Monday's government data showed that Ivory Coast farmers shipped 1.698 MMT of cocoa to ports this marketing year from October 1 to June 29, up +6.8% from last year but down from the much larger +35% increase seen in December. There are reports that heavy rain in the Ivory Coast is keeping cocoa growers off their farms and is disrupting the ongoing mid-crop cocoa harvest.
Signs of smaller cocoa exports are supportive of cocoa prices, following last Wednesday's news that Nigerian May cocoa exports fell by -29% y/y to 14,110 MT. Nigeria is the world's fourth-largest exporter of cocoa.
In late May, NY cocoa rallied to a 5-month nearest-futures high on concerns about weather in West Africa. Despite the recent rain in West Africa, drought still covers more than a third of Ghana and the Ivory Coast, according to the African Flood and Drought Monitor.
Cocoa prices also have support due to quality concerns regarding the Ivory Coast's mid-crop cocoa, which is currently being harvested through September. Cocoa processors are complaining about the quality of the crop and have rejected truckloads of Ivory Coast cocoa beans. Processors reported that about 5% to 6% of the mid-crop cocoa in each truckload is of poor quality, compared with 1% during the main crop. According to Rabobank, the poor quality of the Ivory Coast's mid-crop is partly attributed to late-arriving rain in the region, which limited crop growth. The mid-crop is the smaller of the two annual cocoa harvests, which typically starts in April. The average estimate for this year's Ivory Coast mid-crop is 400,000 MT, down -9% from last year's 440,000 MT.
Concern about consumer demand for cocoa and cocoa products is bearish for cocoa, driven by fears that tariffs will exacerbate already high cocoa prices. On April 10, Barry Callebaut AG, one of the world's largest chocolate makers, reduced its annual sales guidance due to high cocoa prices and tariff uncertainty. Also, chocolate maker Hershey Co. recently reported that Q1 sales fell by 14% and said it anticipated $15-$20 million in tariff costs in Q2, which will boost chocolate prices and further weigh on consumer demand. Mondelez International reported weaker-than-expected Q1 sales, stating that consumers are cutting back on snack purchases due to economic uncertainty and high chocolate prices.
Weaker demand from cocoa processors was seen in Q1. Q1 North American cocoa grindings fell -2.5% y/y to 110,278 MT. Q1 European cocoa grindings fell -3.7% y/y to 353,522 MT. Q1 Asian cocoa grinding fell -3.4% y/y to 213,898 MT.
On May 30, the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) revised its 2023/24 global cocoa deficit to -494,000 MT from a February estimate of -441,000 MT, the largest deficit in over 60 years. ICCO said 2023/24 cocoa production fell -13.1% y/y to 4.380 MMT. ICCO said the 2023/24 global cocoa stocks/grindings ratio fell to a 46-year low of 27.0%. Looking ahead to 2024/25, ICCO on February 28 forecasted a global cocoa surplus of 142,000 MT for 2024/25, the first surplus in four years. ICCO also projected that 2024/25 global cocoa production will rise +7.8% y/y to 4.84 MMT.
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
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Key results achieved to date have been released to the market via an exploration announcement, dated 5 December 2024 entitled 'Confidence Boosting Infill Drilling at Nyanzaga Project) and a further exploration announcement dated 22 July 2025 entitled 'Perseus Mining delivers encouraging drilling results from its current drill program at the Nyanzaga Gold Project.' Perseus's decision to proceed with developing the NGP builds upon Perseus's demonstrated capacity to successfully develop and efficiently operate modern gold mines on the African continent. Perseus has previously successfully developed, and is now operating three gold mines including Edikan, Sissingué, and most recently, the Yaouré gold mine that was delivered ahead of schedule and under budget in 2020, using many of the same team that will be deployed on the NGP development. Competent Person Statement: The information in this report that relates to Mineral Resources is based on, and fairly represents, information and supporting documentation prepared by Daniel Saunders, a Competent Person who is a Fellow of The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy. Mr Saunders is a full-time employee of Perseus Mining Limited. Mr Saunders has sufficient experience, which is relevant to the style of mineralisation and type of deposit under consideration and to the activity being undertaken, to qualify as a Competent Person as defined in the 2012 Edition of the 'Australasian Code for Reporting of Exploration Results, Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves'' and to qualify as a 'Qualified Person' under National Instrument 43-101 – Standards of Disclosure for Mineral Projects ('NI 43-101'). Mr Saunders consents to the inclusion in the report of the matters based on his information in the form and context in which it appears. The information in this report that relates to Ore Reserves is based on information compiled by Mr Adrian Ralph, a Competent Person who is a Fellow of The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy. Mr Ralph is a full-time employee of Perseus Mining Limited. Mr Ralph has sufficient experience which is relevant to the style of mineralisation and type of deposit under consideration and to the activities which he is undertaking to qualify as a Competent Person as defined in the 2012 Edition of the 'Australasian Code for Reporting of Exploration Results, Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves' and a Qualified Person as defined in NI 43-101. Mr Ralph consents to the inclusion in this report of the matters based on his information in the form and context in which it appears. 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Perseus does not undertake to update any forward-looking information, except in accordance with applicable securities CODE: PRUCAPITAL STRUCTURE:Ordinary shares: 1,350,988,737Performance rights: 9,328,134REGISTERED OFFICE:Level 2437 Roberts RoadSubiaco WA 6008Telephone: +61 8 6144 DIRECTORS:Rick MenellNon-Executive ChairmanJeff QuartermaineManaging Director & CEO Amber BanfieldNon-Executive DirectorElissa CorneliusNon-Executive DirectorDan LougherNon-Executive DirectorJohn McGloinNon-Executive DirectorJames RutherfordNon-Executive Director CONTACTS:Jeff QuartermaineManaging Director & FormanInvestor Relations+61 484 036 RyanMedia+61 420 582 ASX Announcement dated 11 June 2025, Perseus Mining announces 5-Year Gold Production Outlook2 Perseus owns an 80% contributing interest in the NGP together with the Government of Tanzania who owns a 20% non-contributing interestError in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
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I grew up on different continents—Africa, Europe, and North America. Having the privilege of living in and experiencing diverse countries and cultures during my formative years made it clear to me that, while we are all unique in many ways, there are still core things that are universal. We all want to nurture and spend time with our families. We all want to have fulfilling careers and to feel safe. We all value community. That last shared sentiment is at the center of a brand purpose trend that has remained largely resilient, despite some who claim otherwise. Studies show that we're still in an era where people not only demand brands that reflect their values, but show a deep commitment to a communalcause. We want brands to create change that makes our lives better, not just make a healthy profit. These alignments are areas where brands can lean in, promote belonging, and foster unity at a time of growing divisiveness. Creatives can be valuable partners in this, too—lending brands their insight as well as design, advertising, and strategic expertise. But only if we properly value and nurture their rich spectrum of lived experiences, encouraging the unique qualities that make creatives essential to cultivating a sense of togetherness. That's why, as community-building becomes the new imperative, we must provide creatives with environments that not only celebrate their work, but their individual voices and points of view. Community from creativity Creativity is more than a tool for messaging and communication. Its impact can transcend business into culture, helping us see the world in exciting new ways. And when you choose to be a creative, you're joining a community with its own codes and way of operating. Being in a creative community necessitates a willingness to contribute, participate, and add/realize value for everything from a group of people to an entire industry. As importantly, creative communities tend to have a diversity of perspective that results in more provocative ideas built from lived experiences and unique insights. For example, in working on a community engagement-focused campaign for Delta Air Lines, alongside their in-house agency and graduates from D&AD Shift—our night school for self-taught creatives—I was often surprised by the unexpected ideas shared by our incredible talent. They're a part of so many different subcultures, spread across the worlds of music, fashion, comedy, and more. And they are navigating their differences while developing their own community, making them experts at helping brands do the same. That ability to turn diverse perspectives into shared purpose is rare—especially post-COVID—and it's a quality that must be protected as countless influences increasingly drive us apart. Build a better community The best creative communities don't just happen. They're designed with intention, and they're given the clarity, investment, and support needed to thrive. In my work at Kin and D&AD, I've seen that, for creative people, prioritizing community-building means cultivating a safe space to share, debate, and discuss ideas. That takes prioritizing several core principles: Embrace people as they are: Pioneering creatives can come from any cultural or economic background and be at any stage of their careers. Low-cost tools and social media have also given birth to a generation of self-taught creatives with an entirely different life experience. Celebrate their unique personalities and perspectives. It's their ability to use their insights to notice and address challenges that create value. Recognize and affirm progress: While making room for acknowledgement may seem like something that should be a secondary concern, it's actually key to motivating and inspiring achievement. Incremental changes, consistently executed, lead to massive gains. Both deserve a nod when working with creatives. Positive friction is creative fuel: There's nothing wrong withdisagreement when it's structured and done respectfully. In fact, it's entirely expected when different perspectives come together around creative work. Lively conversation, debate, and collaboration create camaraderie and a sense of shared ownership of creative ideas, elevating them to more potent outcomes. Treat failure as R&D: That meanscelebrating risk-taking and losses as essential parts of the creative journey. They are the building blocks of innovative ideas, important signs that you're experimenting with something interesting and on the path to inventing something original, as long as you learn and evolve from them. Creatives need more environments that wholehearted embrace these principles, giving them a foundation that enhances community-building potential. That way, as brands and organizations increasingly leverage community-based approaches, they'll do so more authentically and in ways that add value to businesses and the broader culture.
