After teal wave of 2022, there was no ‘sophomore surge'. Where to from here for the independents?

The Guardian

10-05-2025

As Climate 200 founder Simon Holmes à Court sees it, there are no safe seats or silver medals in politics.
The political fundraising body Climate 200 supported 35 community independents – commonly called teals though some shirk that tag – in this year's federal election. Nine have won, while votes are still being counted in other seats where teals are contenders.
In 2019, the independent Zali Steggall famously ousted Tony Abbott from Warringah, joining a crossbench featuring Helen Haines, Andrew Wilkie and Rebekha Sharkie. But it was in 2022 that the teal wave washed through parliament.
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Many have posited that the teal appeal was, at least in part, a response to Scott Morrison's deep unpopularity and his Liberal government's 'women problem'. But Labor and the Greens are not immune.
The vote for independents has gone up from 5.3% in 2022 to more than 7% this year.
In Bean, the independent Jessie Price is a whisker ahead of Labor incumbent David Smith. In Bradfield, a similarly tiny difference puts Liberal candidate Gisele Kapterian just in front of Nicolette Boele. In Kooyong, MP Monique Ryan is battling to hold on against the Liberal candidate Amelia Hamer.
Zoe Daniel initially celebrated winning Goldstein, but Liberal candidate Tim Wilson – who lost it to the independent in 2022 – later claimed victory. The independent Kate Julett gave Labor MP Josh Wilson a fright in Fremantle.
The electoral analyst and blogger Ben Raue says typically there's a 'sophomore surge' with independents, where name recognition sees their vote go up at the second election. 'That largely hasn't happened,' he says, but adds 'they've done reasonably well'.
Thanks to the independents creating a three-way competition in some seats, vote counting is more complicated, he says.
'Even where they don't win they're keeping it interesting,' Raue says.
Raue says climate change was not on the agenda as much this year compared with 2022, which could explain the more subdued support for the teals, who campaign on climate action, gender equity and political integrity.
But he says overall the rise of the independents has been a 'transformation'. 'It used to be all about minor parties. There were a few independents in the parliament, but now it's much more of a wave.'
The polling analyst Kevin Bonham makes the same point about the lack of a sophomore surge, and says there is no 'startling pattern' in the results so far.
'The independent vote is up but that's because there were more of them running in more seats,' he says.
'Let's wait and see where they end up in terms of how many seats they win. I guess the worst possible result would be losing a couple, but it's not a greatly different result to what happened last time.'
Holmes à Court, the son of a billionaire, says the independents are 'here to stay'.
'The fact that so many of the independents kept their seats shows that the movement was not a blip,' he says.
'A record number of independents [have come] within striking distance of a win.
'There's no silver medal in politics, but if there were medals, at least 22 community-selected independents would be walking away with a gold or silver.'
There are other, non-teal independents, of course – such as Dai Le, who looks likely to stay on in Fowler. And there are others who managed respectable primary votes and could pose a future threat.
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The onward march of the independents, though, could be hobbled by electoral funding laws that the two major parties joined together to pass in February.
At the time, the Centre for Public Integrity said the speedy passage of the laws – which went through without the scrutiny of a public inquiry – were an 'affront to our democratic process'.
The new rules will cap political donations and election campaign spending, increase transparency around donations and – from the 2028 election – increase the public funding per vote.
The move was pitched as a way to rein in 'big money' such as that deployed by the mining magnate Clive Palmer, who spends tens of millions of dollars on election campaigns. But crossbenchers described it as a 'stitch-up' that would advantage Labor and the Coalition over the independents and minor parties.
The $50,000 cap on the amount a donor can give to a party or individual can be sidestepped using multiple donations to the various sub-groups that the major parties have, and there's a carve out for peak bodies such as unions and business councils.
There's also a spending cap of $800,000 for each candidate, but the independents argue established parties have plentiful access to resources and staff which they don't. And a boost of about $3 to $5 for each vote for candidates who get at least 4% of first-preference votes will advantage incumbents, they say.
Holmes à Court describes the new laws as a 'financial gerrymander' on the income and the expenditure side.
'It will be tougher, because there's now one rule for independents and another rule for the parties,' he says.
But he adds that independent candidates aren't going to walk away, just because they got silver this time.
'We put out a [documentary] earlier this year called No Safe Seat. I think that's the theme of the election,' he says.
'In the 'class of 2022', all seven won formerly safe seats. The difference between losing a couple of seats and gaining a few is plus or minus 1000 votes in half a dozen seats.
'Politics is brutal.'