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The Guardian
14-05-2025
- Politics
- The Guardian
The Liberal party's appointment of Sussan Ley is an historic moment – but not the one that matters
In 2018, Scott Morrison addressed the Liberal party room with an evangelical Trumpian fervour. Having just blown up Malcolm Turnbull's government to become Liberal leader and prime minister ahead of Peter Dutton and Julie Bishop, he seemed oblivious to the bloodshed he had just caused. He pointed to the framed photographs of previous Liberal leaders and prime ministers and said, in what I'm sure he thought was a Churchillian tone: 'One day there will be a woman there.' The room was glum with silence, pierced only by Bishop's quiet quip. In which century? That day marked the beginning of the Morrison and Dutton show. Women centrists such as Bishop, Kelly O'Dwyer and me jumped ship. Kerryn Phelps won Turnbull's seat of Wentworth and Zali Steggall won Tony Abbott's seat of Warringah in 2019, the same year as Morrison's 'miracle' win. In the 2022 election, six women – business leaders, lawyers and doctors among them – pushed men out of 'blue ribbon' seats that had been held by Liberal party since last century. A slow but steady trail of destruction continued. The reactionary right, emboldened by Trump 1.0, and later Trump's second coming, has continued to flavour their talking points accordingly and develop copycat policies. They consoled climate deniers with a Gina Rinehart-friendly pro-nuclear stance, and reinforced their antiquated attitude to women by preselecting more men, and temporarily telling men and women that they would have to ditch working from home and return to the office. Women voters deserted the Liberal party in 2022 and fled it again in 2025 – to the Labor party and teal independents. The Liberals have finally appointed a women, Sussan Ley, as leader. Their excited declaration that this was an important moment in history – Ley is the first woman the party has appointed in its 80 years – contains the subtle implication that the appointment will fix their deep-seated dysfunctional woes and make up for a shocking electoral defeat. Sign up for Guardian Australia's breaking news email The more significant historic moment, which the Liberal Party would prefer we not see, is that the 48th Australian parliament will include a record-breaking number of women and that about 50 of them are likely to be Labor MPs, compared with only about seven Liberals. Added to that number are the five women teal independents who held their seats in Sydney, Melbourne and Perth. The Liberals say they are 'the sort of women' who should be in the Liberal party while remaining oblivious to the fact that literally millions of women have demonstrated they wouldn't go anywhere near the Liberal Party – because they are women who care about the climate, about health and education and about the economy for future generations and who share the values of integrity, respect and equality. After the 2022 election, Ley, as deputy leader of the party and shadow minister for women, often said she was ''alking with women', going on a 'listening tour', and that the party wanted to win back the urban seats lost to the six female teals. During this time, a 60-page post-election review of the Liberal party unsurprisingly found that a decline in support from female voters was an important factor in the loss. After this year's emphatic loss, it appears the review went unheeded; basic things such as the Liberal party's intransigent resistance to quotas remained and the community independents movement grew. As Ley takes up the leadership, she has vowed to lead from the 'sensible centre'. But how exactly? The Liberals came out of this election beholden to the National party and remain underpinned by a Trumpian support base. They went into this election preferencing One Nation and Family First in electorates across the country – parties with longstanding positions against equality, abortion, LGBTQI+ rights, multiculturalism and renewable energy. There does not appear to be anything remotely 'sensible' or 'centrist' left in that party room, especially when it comes to the issue of women. It's going to take more than the appointment of a female leader declaring a 'new narrative', and a 'fresh approach' to rebuild the party. Words alone don't cut it with the Australian people. Ley declared that her appointment sends a signal to Australian women. But does the party really believe Ley's appointment is going to fix the deeply dysfunctional and embedded problems the Liberals face? Ley's picture will be hung on the wall with former Liberal leaders, but much more needs to be done to ensure it's not perched on one of the biggest glass cliffs in Australian history. The most profound and meaningful signal has already been sent, and it is not the one the Liberal party sent by appointing its first female leader. It's the one the Australian people sent on 3 May. Julia Banks is an author, leadership consultant, keynote speaker, lawyer, and former Liberal and Independent MP
The Guardian
10-05-2025
- Politics
- The Guardian
After teal wave of 2022, there was no ‘sophomore surge'. Where to from here for the independents?
As Climate 200 founder Simon Holmes à Court sees it, there are no safe seats or silver medals in politics. The political fundraising body Climate 200 supported 35 community independents – commonly called teals though some shirk that tag – in this year's federal election. Nine have won, while votes are still being counted in other seats where teals are contenders. In 2019, the independent Zali Steggall famously ousted Tony Abbott from Warringah, joining a crossbench featuring Helen Haines, Andrew Wilkie and Rebekha Sharkie. But it was in 2022 that the teal wave washed through parliament. Sign up for Guardian Australia's breaking news email Many have posited that the teal appeal was, at least in part, a response to Scott Morrison's deep unpopularity and his Liberal government's 'women problem'. But Labor and the Greens are not immune. The vote for independents has gone up from 5.3% in 2022 to more than 7% this year. In Bean, the independent Jessie Price is a whisker ahead of Labor incumbent David Smith. In Bradfield, a similarly tiny difference puts Liberal candidate Gisele Kapterian just in front of Nicolette Boele. In Kooyong, MP Monique Ryan is battling to hold on against the Liberal candidate Amelia Hamer. Zoe Daniel initially celebrated winning Goldstein, but Liberal candidate Tim Wilson – who lost it to the independent in 2022 – later claimed victory. The independent Kate Julett gave Labor MP Josh Wilson a fright in Fremantle. The electoral analyst and blogger Ben Raue says typically there's a 'sophomore surge' with independents, where name recognition sees their vote go up at the second election. 'That largely hasn't happened,' he says, but adds 'they've done reasonably well'. Thanks to the independents creating a three-way competition in some seats, vote counting is more complicated, he says. 'Even where they don't win they're keeping it interesting,' Raue says. Raue says climate change was not on the agenda as much this year compared with 2022, which could explain the more subdued support for the teals, who campaign on climate action, gender equity and political integrity. But he says overall the rise of the independents has been a 'transformation'. 'It used to be all about minor parties. There were a few independents in the parliament, but now it's much more of a wave.' The polling analyst Kevin Bonham makes the same point about the lack of a sophomore surge, and says there is no 'startling pattern' in the results so far. 'The independent vote is up but that's because there were more of them running in more seats,' he says. 'Let's wait and see where they end up in terms of how many seats they win. I guess the worst possible result would be losing a couple, but it's not a greatly different result to what happened last time.' Holmes à Court, the son of a billionaire, says the independents are 'here to stay'. 'The fact that so many of the independents kept their seats shows that the movement was not a blip,' he says. 'A record number of independents [have come] within striking distance of a win. 'There's no silver medal in politics, but if there were medals, at least 22 community-selected independents would be walking away with a gold or silver.' There are other, non-teal independents, of course – such as Dai Le, who looks likely to stay on in Fowler. And there are others who managed respectable primary votes and could pose a future threat. Sign up to Afternoon Update Our Australian afternoon update breaks down the key stories of the day, telling you what's happening and why it matters after newsletter promotion The onward march of the independents, though, could be hobbled by electoral funding laws that the two major parties joined together to pass in February. At the time, the Centre for Public Integrity said the speedy passage of the laws – which went through without the scrutiny of a public inquiry – were an 'affront to our democratic process'. The new rules will cap political donations and election campaign spending, increase transparency around donations and – from the 2028 election – increase the public funding per vote. The move was pitched as a way to rein in 'big money' such as that deployed by the mining magnate Clive Palmer, who spends tens of millions of dollars on election campaigns. But crossbenchers described it as a 'stitch-up' that would advantage Labor and the Coalition over the independents and minor parties. The $50,000 cap on the amount a donor can give to a party or individual can be sidestepped using multiple donations to the various sub-groups that the major parties have, and there's a carve out for peak bodies such as unions and business councils. There's also a spending cap of $800,000 for each candidate, but the independents argue established parties have plentiful access to resources and staff which they don't. And a boost of about $3 to $5 for each vote for candidates who get at least 4% of first-preference votes will advantage incumbents, they say. Holmes à Court describes the new laws as a 'financial gerrymander' on the income and the expenditure side. 'It will be tougher, because there's now one rule for independents and another rule for the parties,' he says. But he adds that independent candidates aren't going to walk away, just because they got silver this time. 'We put out a [documentary] earlier this year called No Safe Seat. I think that's the theme of the election,' he says. 'In the 'class of 2022', all seven won formerly safe seats. The difference between losing a couple of seats and gaining a few is plus or minus 1000 votes in half a dozen seats. 'Politics is brutal.'
Perth Now
03-05-2025
- Politics
- Perth Now
Teal independents prove they're no one-hit wonders
Independents are here to stay with teal MPs retaining their seats, largely with more support after making history at the last election. So-called "teals" Allegra Spender in Wentworth, Zali Steggall in Warringah, Sophie Scamps in Mackellar, Monique Ryan in Kooyong, Zoe Daniel in Goldstein and Kate Chaney in Curtin will return to parliament. All received swings toward them, apart from Ms Daniel, whose just over three per cent margin was whittled down 1.1 per cent by the Liberals. They could also be joined by Nicolette Boele, who is ahead with more than half the vote counted after taking a slight swing toward her in the former Liberal heartland of Bradfield in Sydney's north. Crossbench stalwarts Andrew Wilkie, Helen Haines, Bob Katter and Rebekha Sharkie retained their seats. Independent candidate Jessie Price is also in the lead in the formerly safe Labor seat of Bean in Canberra, where she claimed a more than 13 per cent swing with more than 70 per cent of the vote counted. The numbers were looking positive, Ms Scamps told AAP. The Liberals took a near six per cent swing out of their primary vote in her seat on Sydney's northern beaches while Ms Scamps' primary vote stayed relatively stable on nearly 39 per cent. "I think it comes down to people seeing that I have been there working hard, doing what I said I would do," she said. "The Liberal Party threw everything at this seat but when it came down to it ... people wanted hope and positivity." Independent senator David Pocock claimed a large surge in support to take first spot on the ACT Senate ticket and win a quota in his own right. He placed ahead of Finance Minister Katy Gallagher, who took the gold last time. He made history in 2022 by becoming the first independent to unseat a majority party senator in the ACT with the two seats traditionally split one apiece between Labor and the Liberals.
West Australian
03-05-2025
- Politics
- West Australian
Teal independents prove they're no one-hit wonders
Independents are here to stay with teal MPs retaining their seats, largely with more support after making history at the last election. So-called "teals" Allegra Spender in Wentworth, Zali Steggall in Warringah, Sophie Scamps in Mackellar, Monique Ryan in Kooyong, Zoe Daniel in Goldstein and Kate Chaney in Curtin will return to parliament. All received swings toward them, apart from Ms Daniel, whose just over three per cent margin was whittled down 1.1 per cent by the Liberals. They could also be joined by Nicolette Boele, who is ahead with more than half the vote counted after taking a slight swing toward her in the former Liberal heartland of Bradfield in Sydney's north. Crossbench stalwarts Andrew Wilkie, Helen Haines, Bob Katter and Rebekha Sharkie retained their seats. Independent candidate Jessie Price is also in the lead in the formerly safe Labor seat of Bean in Canberra, where she claimed a more than 13 per cent swing with more than 70 per cent of the vote counted. The numbers were looking positive, Ms Scamps told AAP. The Liberals took a near six per cent swing out of their primary vote in her seat on Sydney's northern beaches while Ms Scamps' primary vote stayed relatively stable on nearly 39 per cent. "I think it comes down to people seeing that I have been there working hard, doing what I said I would do," she said. "The Liberal Party threw everything at this seat but when it came down to it ... people wanted hope and positivity." Independent senator David Pocock claimed a large surge in support to take first spot on the ACT Senate ticket and win a quota in his own right. He placed ahead of Finance Minister Katy Gallagher, who took the gold last time. He made history in 2022 by becoming the first independent to unseat a majority party senator in the ACT with the two seats traditionally split one apiece between Labor and the Liberals.
