ECB Will Soon Reach Terminal Rate If Baseline Holds, Kazaks Says
European Central Bank Governing Council member Martins Kazaks said interest-rate cuts are nearing an end, assuming the base case for inflation stabilizing at 2% over the coming months comes to pass.
'If the current baseline holds, we will soon reach the terminal rate,' the Latvian official said Wednesday in a presentation for an MNI event. 'Nevertheless, it may be the case that, although most likely, the baseline probability is below 50%.'
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Forbes
31 minutes ago
- Forbes
What The CPI Inflation Numbers Mean For The Future
The Consumer Price Index numbers for May came out on Wednesday. The seasonally adjusted number was up 0.1% in May, a drop from April's 0.2%. except for March, it was the lowest monthly inflation figure since July 2024. Over the last 12 months, inflation was 2.4% before seasonal adjustment. There is volatility over time, but also a downward trend line, even if it hasn't dropped fast enough for people's tastes. Below is a graph from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, showing year-over-year comparisons. Year-over-year changes in the CPI Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The news was good, at least in theory and at a high level. At a more detailed look, perhaps not. Other issues — tariffs, rising deficit spending, and spending cuts for important common good activities — combine with inflation to create greater uncertainty in the near future and the potential for a recession. Here Are The CPI Details That Affect You CPI at the headline level sounds good. Details are, on the whole, more discouraging. Here are some product categories where inflation was much higher: All are necessities, if not for everyone, for many millions. Other items helped keep the headline inflation down: The moderating factors don't necessarily remove the burden of the items with greater inflation, depending on how households spend and experience inflation. Near Future Effects On Inflation 'Shelter and energy are going to keep the disinflation trend intact,' wrote Jamie Cox, managing partner for Harris Financial Group, in a note. 'Prices are moving down in two of the largest categories, so investors should expect further declines in inflation in the coming months. 'However, CPI remains above 2% and even though the tariff rates are going to be less than originally feared, after they are implemented, they will further increase the cost of goods,' wrote Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Northlight Asset Management, in a second note. 'Because of this and the tariff pause that's scheduled to be lifted next month, we are still cautious, but many of the risks that were present in early April, appear to be receding at this time.' As Oxford Economics noted, the May CPI data have been 'encouraging, but unlikely the new norm.' For example, the administration announced a temporary trade truce — again — with China following talks in London. This time, tariffs will be 55%. That's a blended number and includes 20% tariffs on fentanyl, a 10% reciprocal tariffs, and then an average 25% for tariffs already in place before this year, according to a MarketWatch report. The congressional spending bill is likely going to send spending and the deficit up, which will also provide inflationary pressure. While the headline numbers sound like a reprieve, it probably won't be ultimately.
Fox News
an hour ago
- Fox News
DONE DEAL: Stephen Moore Discusses Trump's China Deal
Stephen Moore, Distinguished Fellow in Economics at the Heritage Foundation, founder of Club for Growth, and author of The Trump Economic Miracle , joined The Guy Benson Show today to break down the latest economic data, including lower-than-expected inflation, rising job numbers, and falling prices on gas and eggs. Moore explained why media and left-wing analysts continue to push doom-and-gloom narratives, arguing that their bias against Trump skews their economic outlook. Moore also detailed what Trump calls a 'done deal' on trade between the US and China, and Moore though he emphasized that the next move now rests with Beijing. Listen to the full interview below! Listen to the full interview below: Listen to the full podcast below:
Bloomberg
an hour ago
- Bloomberg
CEA Chair Miran on Inflation, Tax Bill and China Tariffs
White House Council of Economic Advisers Chair Stephen Miran says inflation has been successfully coming down because of President Donald Trump's policies. Speaking on "Balance of Power," Miran also comments on Trump's tax bill and the state of China-US trade relations. (Source: Bloomberg)
