How will your MP vote on Labour's welfare bill – and could Starmer's government be defeated?
Labour 's controversial welfare cuts face a significant hurdle at a crunch Commons vote on Tuesday as more than 100 Labour MPs have joined the growing rebellion against the plans.
An amendment signed by the 123 rebels – a figure which grew by 15 on Wednesday morning – would essentially halt the reforms if passed, as it would prevent the government's bill from progressing any further through Parliament.
The episode marks a major challenge to Sir Keir Starmer's government. Should all of the rebels stand by the amendment – alongside MPs from other parties – then they would hold a majority of 44.
This would be more than enough to secure an embarrassing and uncommon defeat for the Labour government.
However, Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has staged a last-minute intervention, signalling that she will ask her members to back the government's plans.
While this would allow the bill to pass, it is likely not the ideal outcome for the prime minister. This scenario would see him defeating many of his own backbenchers by relying on opposition support.
Entitled the 'Universal Credit and Personal Independent Payment Bill', the government's proposed legislation would see the eligibility and/or payment rates of both of these benefits sharply cut back for disabled claimants.
The changes put forward by the group of Labour rebels would not halt these plans forever, but essentially lists several issues that mean the signatories cannot abide by the changes as things stand.
Speaker of the House Lindsay Hoyle would need to select this amendment for it to be voted on, but with the amount of support it is unlikely that he would not. If this were to happen, MPs would still be required to vote on the main bill anyway, keeping the door open for a potential rebellion.
Five key reasons are listed in the amendment, including the lack of a formal consultation with disabled people, and the Office for Budget Responsibility's (OBR) analysis that the plans would push 250,000 into poverty, including 50,000 children.
Also listed as a key issue is that the OBR is not due to publish its employment impact of the reforms essentially an analysis of how many people they would support into work, until autumn – months after MPs are expected to vote on them.
However, the text of the amendment does also begin by 'noting the need for the reform of the social security system,' as well as 'agreeing with the government's principles for providing support to people into work and protecting people who cannot work.'
The amendment has been signed by 11 Commons committee chairs, including Dame Meg Hillier (Treasury select committee) and Debbie Abrahams (Work and Pensions select committee).
Confirming her decision to sign the amendment on Bluesky, Ms Abrahams said: 'I've signed this as I believe there are alternative ways we can achieve the Government's goals of increasing employment while reducing sickness and disability cases, therefore reducing overall disability benefits spending.'
'This can be achieved through improvements in the Labour market, along side increases in NHS and employment support. Not by impoverishing disabled people and their families further from next April by cutting their benefits before all these measures are in place.'
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