What Trump's tax bill means for your HSA
US President Trump's tax package includes changes to health savings account (HSA) rules. Yahoo Finance Senior Columnist Kerry Hannon joins Wealth to break down these changes.
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Yahoo
18 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Analysis-Global economy's 'sugar rush' defies trade drama
By Francesco Canepa FRANKFURT (Reuters) -For all the drama surrounding U.S. President Donald Trump's trade tariffs, the world economy is holding up better than many had expected. The latest data from the United States, China and, to a lesser extent, Europe are showing resilience and the global economy as a whole is still expected to grow modestly this year. This is in part due to U.S. buyers and foreign sellers bringing forward business while many of the import duties unveiled by U.S. President Donald Trump remain suspended. While that effect may prove short-lived, Trump's decision to pause tariffs and some glimpses of progress in trade talks, particularly between the United States and the European Union, have fuelled cautious optimism. "We are seeing a bit of a sugar rush in industry, with manufacturers bringing forward production and trade," said Holger Schmieding, an economist at investment bank Berenberg. "The other thing is that we have evidence that Trump pedalled back on tariffs. The bet in markets and to some extent in the economy is that he barks but doesn't bite." Investment banks and institutions generally expect the United States to avoid a recession this year and the global economy to keep growing. The International Monetary Fund downgraded its global GDP growth forecast by just 0.5 percentage points last month to 2.8%. This is roughly in line with the trend over the past decade and a far cry from the downturns experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2008 financial crisis or even the turmoil that followed the 9/11 terror attacks in 2001. No one is venturing a prediction on where the trade negotiations will eventually settle, particularly with a U.S. president who sees himself as unstoppable. This week alone, separate U.S. courts first blocked and then reinstated Trump's tariffs - creating a degree of legal uncertainty that will do little to facilitate trade deals between the United States and those threatened with the levies. While the EU celebrated "new impetus" in its trade talks with the United States, negotiations with China were "a bit stalled" according to U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Companies are counting the cost of the ongoing impasse. A Reuters analysis of corporate disclosures shows Trump's trade war had cost companies more than $34 billion in lost sales and higher costs, a toll that is expected to rise as ongoing uncertainty over tariffs paralyses decision making at some of the world's largest companies. Car-makers from Japan's Toyota to Germany's Porsche and Mercedes-Benz are bracing for lower, or lower-than-previously expected profits if they have not given up making predictions altogether, like Volvo Cars and Dutch-based Stellantis. This is likely to result in a hit especially for Japan. The United States is Japan's biggest export destination, accounting for 21 trillion yen ($146.16 billion) worth of goods, with automobiles representing roughly 28% of the total. "While the worst shocks may be over, there's still a lot up in the air," Xingchen Yu, a strategist at UBS's Chief Investment Office, said. "We don't really know what a new normal for tariffs would look like, unfortunately." PAYBACK But so far the global economy has held up pretty well. China's output and exports are resilient as its companies re-route trade to the United States via third countries. Even in Europe, manufacturing activity was at a 33-month high in May, rebounding from a slump induced by more expensive fuel following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Confidence was also buttressed by the prospect of greater fiscal spending in Germany, a missing ingredient for European growth for the past couple of decades. The robustness of the world economy has surprised even professional forecasters. A measure produced by U.S. bank Citi that tracks the degree to which global economic data has surprised to the upside is now at its highest in more than a year. Some of that strength circles back to the tariffs themselves and the attempts by U.S. households and businesses to front-load purchases to beat anticipated price increases later this year. U.S. imports were up around 30% in March from where they were in October. The risk to the upbeat outlook comes from the expected "payback" of those advance purchases, which are unlikely to be repeated and will mean slower activity - in the U.S. and elsewhere - later. Economists still fear a triple whammy in which the front-loaded boost to the goods sector is unwound while U.S. household purchasing power is squeezed by higher prices and companies put off investment and hiring. At the margin, however, this scenario is starting to appear a little less likely after Trump's pause on tariffs. "The balance has slightly shifted towards more optimism, albeit with uncertainty and volatility," ING's global head of macro Carsten Brzeski said. ($1 = 143.6800 yen) (Additional reporting by Dan Burns in Washington, Claire Fu in Singapore, Ellen Zhang in Beijing and Leika Kihara in Tokyo; Editing by Mark John and Jane Merriman) Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
CNN
19 minutes ago
- CNN
Stocks futures drop as Trump claims China has ‘violated' trade agreement
Stock futures fell Friday after President Donald Trump said China has 'totally violated' its trade agreement with the United States, sending another jolt to markets after a whiplash week of tariff developments. Dow futures were down 100 points, or 0.3%. S&P 500 futures and those tied to the Nasdaq 100 both slid 0.3%. 'The bad news is that China, perhaps not surprisingly to some, HAS TOTALLY VIOLATED ITS AGREEMENT WITH US,' the president posted on social media. 'So much for being Mr. NICE GUY!' Wall Street has been cautious about the next steps in Trump's trade war. Stocks had received a boost this week after the Court of International Trade late Wednesday blocked most of Trump's tariffs on legal grounds, but that rally lost steam as traders bet the White House would aggressively appeal and pursue another legal strategy. A federal appeals court on Thursday paused the CIT's ruling to block Trump's tariffs, leaving the president's massive tariff agenda in limbo as the courts deliberate its legality. 'The stunning, head-spinning, mind-boggling trade fiasco will not be resolved quickly,' said Greg Valiere, chief US policy strategist at AGF Investments, in a note. 'It probably will land in the Supreme Court — and even that may not settle the issue.' Investors on Friday also digested fresh data that showed the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge cooled in April slightly more economists had expected, but also revealed a significant drop in consumer spending. Trump has reignited his trade war in the past week, which has stirred up uncertainty in markets after Wall Street had begun to turn the page on tariff concerns. The S&P 500 has been steadily climbing out of an early April slump instigated by the president's back-and-forth on his 'reciprocal' tariffs. Despite the recent fluctuations, investors who sold at the start of May missed out on a historically strong month for markets. The benchmark index is up more than 6% this month and is on track for its best month since 2023 and its best performance in May since 1990. 'Even though the stock market has staged a decisive rebound since the April lows, there is still plenty of uncertainty on tariffs, especially given the legal battle that is brewing over the 'Liberation Day' tariffs,' said Clark Bellin, president and chief investment officer at Bellwether Wealth. The dollar slightly gained on Friday. Yet the US dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against six major foreign currencies, is on track to end the month in the red. It would be the dollar's fifth month of decline in a row. 'We expect bouts of market volatility ahead as investors continue to navigate a range of market, economic and geopolitical risks,' said Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO of global equities at UBS Global Wealth Management, in a Thursday note. The benchmark S&P 500 is up about 0.5% this year. This is a developing story and will be updated.
Yahoo
20 minutes ago
- Yahoo
US imposes new rules to curb semiconductor design software sales to China
It appears the Trump administration has imposed new export controls on chip design software as it seeks to further undermine China's ability to make and use advanced AI chips. Siemens EDA, Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys all confirmed that they have received notices from the U.S. Commerce Department about new export controls on electronic automation design (EDA) software to China. EDA tools are primarily used to aid with the design and validation of semiconductor manufacturing, testing, and for monitoring performance and quality. They are used by chip foundries, chipmakers, networking hardware companies, the automotive industry, and many more. Siemens EDA, a division of German tech conglomerate Siemens, told TechCrunch that it has received a notice from the Commerce Department's Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) last week about new export controls on EDA software to China and Chinese military end users. "Siemens has supported customers in China for more than 150 years and will continue to work with our customers globally to mitigate the impact of these new restrictions while operating in compliance with applicable national export control regimes," the company said. U.S.-based Synopsys, which also makes EDA software, said on Thursday that it had also received a similar letter from the BIS. The company also suspended its forecast for the third quarter and full-year 2025. Cadence also received a notice from the BIS saying a license is now required for "the export, re-export or in-country transfer of electronic design automation software" to customers in China. The news was first reported by The Financial Times. The new export rules come as the U.S. ramps up its efforts to hinder Chinese companies as the battle for AI supremacy heats up. But these export controls are increasingly hurting the U.S. chip industry, which has long enjoyed significant market share in China. Nvidia alone has incurred billions in losses due to restrictions on sales of its H20 and Hopper AI chips to Chinese customers. The company, along with rival AMD, is even said to be working on selling lower-powered versions of its AI chips to Chinese customers. The U.S. Commerce Department did not immediately return a request for comment outside regular business hours. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
