Federal election 2025: Liberal hopes could rest on One Nation preference in WA as voters abandon major parties

West Australian

02-05-2025

Preferences could decide a swag of key election battles in WA, with a new opinion poll revealing Pauline Hanson's One Nation could be the big winner as voters abandon both major parties.
Labor's primary vote has slipped 2.8 per cent and the Liberal vote is down 3.8 per cent, according to the Demos AU poll that detected a 7.1 per cent surge to give One Nation 11 per cent of first preferences.
That could help the Liberal party in key seats including Curtin, after a nationwide preference swap Labor has seized on.
'Peter Dutton has sold out principles for political gain,' WA Minister Madeleine King said.
'It's up to him to explain his actions to the Australian people. He has let himself and the Liberal party down.'
Teal MP Kate Chaney has accused the Liberals of 'trickery' over a nationwide preference swap in 139 seats including Curtin, Brand and Fremantle.
But the Liberal party has preferenced the Australian Christians second in other key WA seats, including Tangney and Pearce.
One Nation WA Leader Rod Caddies, who will take up one of two Legislative Council seats won by the party at the recent State election, said the party has its sights set on the Senate and handing the Prime Ministership to Mr Dutton would be a welcome bonus.
'I guess it's a win for Australia if you're a conservative,' he said.
'I definitely think we're a good chance for a Senate seat. One Nation hasn't been present in WA, strong enough, over the last four years to realistically feel we can win the lower house seats.
'It's never impossible, however, you've got to be realistic. If we can increase our vote majorly, that's a step in the right direction.'
One Nation's lead Senate candidate in WA is millionaire civil construction businessmen Tyron Whitten who, if successful, could ruin the Liberal party's chances of a third WA Senate seat.
When asked if that was a sacrifice he was willing to make to win Curtin, Mr Dutton ignored the question.
Mr Caddies listed income splitting for tax purposes and reducing alcohol excise as the party's policy priorities.
'We don't want to see people just drinking more, but we want to see them socialising more,' he said.
'We need to help the restaurants and bars and get people back out.'
Mr Dutton avoided any mention of One Nation or Pauline Hanson when pressed on the preference swap in Myaree on Friday, instead turning the focus on Labor deals.
'It's about outcomes at the election,' he said.
'The outcome of the election that would be the worst for WA would be an Albanese-Bandt government, because it would mean Nature Positive which the Prime Minister won't look West Australians in the eye and tell them what it means.
'And don't forget that the teal Kate Chaney is working in lockstep with the Labor party. The Labor party is running soft in Curtin to support somebody that they know is a fellow traveller. Kate Chaney would support a Labor-Greens government and that would be bad for WA.'
The Greens vote increased 2.5 per cent to 15 per cent, according to the Demos AU poll.
The Liberal party is targeting Curtin, Bullwinkel, Tangney and Pearce in it's bid to claw back ground in WA after being turfed out by voters in five seats in 2022.
The Demos AU poll of 4,100 voters released on Friday made for grim reading in Liberal HQ, with both major parties suffering a slump in support but Labor retain a nationwide edge, 52 to 48 per cent, when preferences were counted.
Labor was even further ahead, 56 to 44 per cent two-party preferred, in WA.
Anthony Albanese was ahead of Mr Dutton in the preferred PM stakes, 46 per cent to 34 per cent.
But Mr Dutton received 43 per cent support from One Nation voters.