UK heatwaves could cause more than 5,000 deaths this summer as temperatures soar
This summer could see more than 5,000 deaths due to excess heat as temperatures look likely to exceed one of the deadliest heatwave years on record, experts are warning.
The Office for National Statistics estimates that the hot weather of 2022 was a factor in more than 4,500 heat-related deaths. Predictions suggest that this summer could be even warmer. The UK Health Security Agency issued three heat health alerts in June this year compared to just one alert, issued to a smaller area of the country, in June 2022. So far, this summer has also seen higher average temperatures than in the same period in 2022.
READ MORE: Why heatwaves are now hotter, more frequent and just a taste of what's to come
Data from the Met Office shows that the average maximum daily temperature in England in June 2025 was 21.9C, compared to 20C in June 2022. The average maximum daily temperatures for May 2025 were also 1.2C higher than in May 2022.
And the number of extremely hot days this year is also higher with 12 days exceeding 28C in England in 2025 to the end of June, compared to just six days exceeding 28C by the end of June in 2022. This is significant because research has shown that death rates increase more rapidly as temperatures rise above 27 degrees.
The Centre for Ageing Better says it is extremely concerned about the significant heat health risk to older people and warns that the poor-quality of the nation's homes is a significant factor in this heightened risk – for this summer and the increasingly hotter summers of the future.
Deputy director of the organisation, Millie Brown said: 'The heatwave we have just experienced is unfortunately just a taste of what could become the norm in the not-too-distant future, as the State of the UK Climate report makes clear this week. Unfortunately, this country is not built for such temperatures, and especially not our poor-quality housing stock.
'Current estimates indicate that the average number of heat-related deaths in this country could triple to 7,000 every year by the 2050s. This is an appalling scenario, and one that we should be doing all we can to avoid.'
People aged 65 and above could likely constitute around four in five of heat-related excess deaths based on recent studies. Britain has the poorest insulated housing stock in Europe, which not only means homes lose heat quicker in winter but they are also very poor at keeping the heat out in summer.
In 30C heat, the temperature within a UK home will rise by five degrees within three hours - double the rate of heat gain in other parts of Europe. Data shows that an ageing population living in ageing housing stock are at heightened risk from increasingly hot summers.
Around three million people aged 65 and above in the UK are among the greatest at risk of becoming ill because they are living in properties between 45 and 80 years old. Millie Brown added: "This is an appalling scenario, and one that we should be doing all we can to avoid.
'Too many people are living in poor-quality homes that put their health, and lives, at risk in extreme temperatures, whether that be in the height of summer or the depths of winter. When building new homes or retrofitting existing homes, we need to consider how to keep homes cool in summer, as well as warm in winter. People also need access to information and advice if there are issues with overheating in their homes.
'This change in our nation's climate is already set in motion. But we can mitigate some of the worst of its impact by building better quality homes that offer people shelter from extreme weather while also giving people better support to improving the state of their homes. The government should be including how to tackle both these challenges in its forthcoming housing strategy."
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