
For Iran's nuclear program, a month is longer than it sounds
If Iran were to make the decision to build a nuclear weapon, it would be betting that it can complete the job and establish deterrence before the U.S. and Israel intervene—through military action, economic pressure or diplomacy—to stop it.
A longer timeline increases the risk of being spotted or struck again, which could dissuade Iran from taking such a gamble in the first place. So measured on the Iranian nuclear clock, a delay of a few months could translate into a lot longer than it sounds if it keeps Tehran from moving ahead.
'If they start their breakout effort, and it takes them three more months, that's a lot of time to respond. It gives you time to detect it. It gives you time to mount a response," said Michael Singh, managing director at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and a former senior official at the National Security Council. 'It's not nothing."
The 2015 international nuclear deal negotiated by the Obama administration, which granted Iran sanctions relief in exchange for limits on its nuclear program, was designed to keep Iran a year away from being able to produce enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon.
President Trump pulled the U.S. out of that agreement in his first term. Iran scaled up its nuclear work a year later and by May this year, it was producing enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon every month.
Before the war, the general assumption was it would take Iran a few months to make a crude weapon as powerful as the bomb dropped on Hiroshima and deliverable by truck or ship, and one to three years to make a warhead that could be fit atop a missile.
Some analysts are concerned thatthe attacks by Israel and the U.S. may have convinced hard-liners in Tehran that the only way to preserve the regime is to make a run at developing nuclear weapons.
'If Iran decides to weaponize, it will take more time than it would have otherwise," said Alan Eyre, a former State Department official and member of the U.S. negotiating team under the Obama administration that worked on the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran. 'But, paradoxically, we might have strengthened their resolve to seek a nuclear weapon now."
'They're going to be figuring out how to reconstitute some sort of defensive strategy, or at least create a new one, because the one they had doesn't work anymore," he said.
Nuclear experts and U.S. officials say Iran could have stashed away enough centrifuges and material to race for a bomb. Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, in an interview with CBS's 'Face the Nation" on Sunday, said Iran has the industrial and technological wherewithal to resume enriching uranium in a few months.
U.N. atomic energy agency chief Rafael Grossi said Iran can resume enriching uranium in a few months if it wants.
'The capacities they have are there," Grossi said. 'They can have, you know, in a matter of months, I would say, a few cascades of centrifuges spinning and producing enriched uranium, or less than that. But as I said, frankly speaking, one cannot claim that everything has disappeared and there is nothing there."
Grossi's agency is responsible for inspecting Iran's nuclear sites but hasn't been able to visit the sites since the Israeli strikes on Iran began June 13.
Iran's options now include trying to reconstitute a covert nuclear program and produce a bomb as fast as possible. A second option would be to agree to a diplomatic path that limits their ability to build a weapon by ending its enrichment of uranium, which the Trump administration has pushed.
Iran could also try to split the difference: engage in nuclear diplomacy while quietly advancing its nuclear program. That would mean working in secret at sites hidden from international inspectors, which would make the task more cumbersome.
Trump and his administration say the U.S. airstrikes using 14 30,000-pound bombs and a salvo of cruise missiles have destroyed the facilities at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan. If so, Iran would need new, hidden enrichment sites, as well as facilities to turn enriched uranium into metal for a bomb core and manage a covert program that can get nuclear scientists to the site without being spotted.
'Iran will never obtain a nuclear bomb, because Operation Midnight Hammer obliterated their nuclear capabilities," White House deputy press secretary Anna Kelly said when asked about Iran's prospects for rebuilding its nuclear program.
Iran has worked for decades on know-how relevant to developing nuclear weapons and has mastered most of the aspects of building a bomb, according to the IAEA and Iranian and Israeli officials.
The Trump administration says it destroyed Iran's nuclear facilities at Fordow.
Before the war, Iran had amassed a large stockpile of highly enriched uranium large enough for 10 nuclear bombs if further enriched. It would have taken about a week to convert enough of the 60% material into 90% weapons-grade enriched uranium for one nuclear weapon, according to the IAEA.
Iran had also tested out many of the components needed to build a bomb and kept that knowledge alive for a new generation of scientists through experiments and studies ostensibly designed for peaceful purposes.
The fate of the fissile material stockpile and how many centrifuges Iran still has remain unclear. Some may have been moved from Iran's nuclear sites before the U.S. attack.
The IAEA's inspectors lost the ability to track Iran's manufacturing of centrifuges due to restrictions Iran imposed in response to Trump's withdrawal from the 2015 deal.
Inspectors have also spent six years seeking the whereabouts of a vast array of equipment from Iran's decades-old nuclear weapons program that Tehran dispersed in 2018. It could include lines for making uranium metal and equipment for testing high explosives and other key equipment for making a bomb.
Iran's pre-2003 nuclear program aimed to produce a small arsenal of nuclear weapons deliverable by missile. Experts believe Iran has yet to seriously work on miniaturizing a nuclear weapon and integrating it onto a missile, which could take one to three years.
'This process of actually making a warhead is not just a physical process. It also comes down to the engineering," the Washington Institute's Singh said. 'There's a little bit more art, rather than just science, to that part of it."
The office of the U.S. Director of National Intelligence assessed in March that Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei hadn't reauthorized the program to develop a nuclear weapon he suspended in 2003.
What Khamenei decides in the wake of the attacks is now the biggest consideration in any timeline.
'We don't know if that is an actively running clock," said Eric Brewer, a deputy vice president at the Nuclear Threat Initiative and a former senior official at the White House National Security Council and National Intelligence Council. 'These timelines are in some ways evolving, and they depend upon what choices Iran makes next."
Write to Jared Malsin at jared.malsin@wsj.com and Laurence Norman at laurence.norman@wsj.com
Hashtags

Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles

Mint
36 minutes ago
- Mint
US, China eye tariff détente in Stockholm meeting today as August deadline looms. What to expect?
Top US and Chinese officials are meeting Monday in Stockholm to try to extend their fragile tariff detente beyond a mid-August deadline and explore broader steps to ease trade tensions. The Stockholm negotiations come just days after Trump secured his largest trade deal to date with the European Union. Under that agreement, most EU goods exports to the U.S., including automobiles, will face a 15% tariff. In return, the EU has committed to purchasing $750 billion in American energy and making $600 billion in U.S. investments over the coming years. Meanwhile, Washington and Beijing are expected to extend their current tariff truce by another three months, according to a report by the South China Morning Post, citing unnamed sources familiar with the talks. One source told the newspaper that neither side will impose new tariffs during the extension period. The existing pause in tariff escalation, originally set to expire on August 12, has helped prevent further deterioration in trade relations as both sides continue negotiating over broader economic and geopolitical disputes. The talks, led by Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, mark the third high-level meeting in less than three months. The agenda includes negotiating the duration of the current tariff freeze and addressing contentious issues such as US tariffs linked to fentanyl trafficking and China's continued purchases of sanctioned Russian and Iranian Oil. If no agreement is reached, global supply chains could once again be thrown into disarray, as U.S. tariffs are set to revert to punitive triple-digit levels, effectively amounting to a bilateral trade embargo. Still, Bessent said in recent days that the US would use this week's huddle to work out what's 'likely an extension' to the current tariff pause, adding: 'I think trade is in a very good place with China.' Any progress in this week's US-China negotiations could lay the groundwork for a potential meeting between Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, possibly timed with a major summit in South Korea later this year. Xi extended an invitation for Trump and First Lady Melania Trump to visit China during a phone call last month, though no date has been confirmed. Sweden's role as host for the talks became clearer after Swedish Finance Minister Elisabeth Svantesson revealed that both U.S. and Chinese officials approached her during the recent G20 gathering in South Africa to propose Sweden as a neutral ground for the negotiations. The meetings in Stockholm mark a quiet but significant moment in the ongoing efforts to manage trade tensions and avoid a renewed tariff escalation. US Ambassador David Perdue, who arrived in Beijing in May, presented his credentials to Xi on Friday, China's envoy to the US posted on X. At the core of the ongoing negotiations between the world's two largest economies lies a high-stakes standoff over critical technologies. Beijing's tight control over rare-earth magnets vital for electric vehicles, wind turbines, and advanced military systems clashes with Washington's sweeping export restrictions on cutting-edge semiconductors crucial to artificial intelligence development. Reducing the 20% fentanyl tariffs Trump imposed over US claims Chinese companies supply chemicals used to make the illegal drug is also a high priority for Beijing, Eurasia Group analysts wrote in a note last week, citing recent meetings with Ministry of Public Security officials. Ministry officials travelled to the Geneva talks in May and will likely go to Stockholm, the analysts wrote, as reported by Bloomberg. While China has denied it is responsible for the flow of the deadly drug, last month it tightened controls over two chemicals that can be used to make the opioid. Earlier this month, Trump praised those moves. 'China has been helping out,' he told reporters. 'We're talking to them and they're making big steps.' For the US, the recent Chinese actions aren't enough, as such moves were required to comply with United Nations measures, according to a person familiar with the trade talks. Chances of reducing the 20% tariff in this round of talks are very slim, added the person who asked not to be identified, discussing sensitive matters, while noting everything could change on Trump's whim, Bloomberg reported. China would be willing to cooperate more on fentanyl, said Sun Chenghao, a professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing, but the US would have to remove the related tariffs, stop blaming Beijing for what it sees as a US domestic problem and provide concrete evidence of crimes. The US business community remains hopeful for progress, with Sean Stein, president of the US-China Business Council, telling Bloomberg TV that movement on fentanyl presents the 'biggest opportunity' in talks. 'That then lowers tariffs on the US side, which then opens the door for China to lower tariffs that lets us sell agriculture, lets us sell airplanes, lets us sell automobiles, that let's us sell energy,' he said. As US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent opened the latest round of trade talks, he signalled a broader negotiating agenda including Beijing's ongoing purchases of sanctioned Russian and Iranian oil. But China has made clear it won't entertain US pressure on that front. 'China won't play along,' warned Lv Xiang, a US affairs expert at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, speaking to state-run Global Times, firmly rejecting any effort to use China as leverage against Russia's economy. At the same time, energy trade between the U.S. and China has sharply declined. In June, Chinese imports of American crude oil, LNG, and coal dropped to nearly zero, the first time in nearly three years, with tariffs of 10–15% imposed by Beijing in February dampening purchases. The energy gap highlights how geopolitical friction is deepening the divide, even as negotiators seek to keep broader trade tensions from reigniting. Xi's government has begun rolling back some of its other retaliatory measures since the two sides met last month in London. Crucially, Beijing has boosted shipments of rare earth magnets, while the US relaxed restrictions on sales of less-advanced semiconductors to China. In another potential goodwill gesture, as the Sweden talks were announced this month, China revealed it had suspended an antitrust investigation into the local unit of US chemical manufacturer DuPont de Nemours Inc. China's colossal manufacturing output will also be a talking point for Trump's team. I think trade is in a very good place with China. Bessent said the US hopes to see China 'pull back on some of this glut of manufacturing that they're doing and concentrate on building a consumer economy.' (With inputs from Bloomberg)


News18
an hour ago
- News18
'Prevent Dying Of Starvation': Barack Obama Calls For 'Immediate Action' Amid Gaza Crisis
Last Updated: Former US President Barack Obama has emphasised that aid must be allowed to reach people in Gaza as 'there's no justification for keeping food and water away from civilians.' Former US President Barack Obama has reacted to the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict for the first time and called for 'immediate action". Taking to X, Obama said, 'While a lasting resolution to the crisis in Gaza must involve a return of all hostages and a cessation of Israel's military operations, these articles underscore the immediate need for action to be taken to prevent the travesty of innocent people dying of preventable starvation." He further stressed that aid 'must be permitted" to reach people in Gaza, adding that 'there is no justification for keeping food and water away from civilian families." His remark came as the World Health Organisation has reported a sharp rise in malnutrition and disease, with a large portion of Gaza's 2 million residents now starving, as reported by AP. Experts have also raised an alarm over the worsening situation and warned that Gaza is nearing famine. Amid the concerns over rising hunger in Gaza, the Israeli military on Sunday started a limited halt in fighting in three populated areas. This also comes as Israel has faced massive backlash for the 21-month-long war. The military said it would begin a 'tactical pause" in Gaza City, Deir al-Balah and Muwasi, three areas of the territory with large populations, to 'increase the scale of humanitarian aid" entering the territory. The pause begins every day at 10:00 am to 8:00 pm local time until further notice, starting Sunday, according to a report by AP. Meanwhile, several recent images from Gaza being widely shared online show emaciated children. Israel says it is prepared to end the war if Hamas surrenders, disarms, and goes into exile, something the group has refused to agree to. Israel has allowed in around 4,500 trucks for the UN and other aid groups to distribute since May. However, according to the UN, the average of 69 trucks a day is far lower than the 500 to 600 trucks Gaza needs in a day. The UN says it has been unable to distribute much of the aid because hungry crowds and gangs take most of it from its arriving trucks. view comments First Published: Disclaimer: Comments reflect users' views, not News18's. Please keep discussions respectful and constructive. Abusive, defamatory, or illegal comments will be removed. News18 may disable any comment at its discretion. By posting, you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.


Indian Express
an hour ago
- Indian Express
Thai and Cambodian leaders head to Malaysia for peace talks
The leaders of Thailand and Cambodia were set to hold talks in Malaysia on Monday to reach a ceasefire in their deadly border dispute, with the United States saying its officials would be assisting in the peace process. Thailand's government said it was attending talks arranged by Malaysia in its role as chair of the regional ASEAN bloc, while Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet said the talks were co-organised by the United States with the participation of China. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said State Department officials were in Malaysia to assist peace efforts, after President Donald Trump had earlier said that he thought both leaders wanted to settle the conflict. 'We want this conflict to end as soon as possible,' Rubio said in statement released late on Sunday in the US and early Monday in Asia. 'State Department officials are on the ground in Malaysia to assist these peace efforts.' Tensions between Thailand and Cambodia have intensified since the killing in late May of a Cambodian soldier during a brief border skirmish. Border troops on both sides were reinforced amid a full-blown diplomatic crisis that brought Thailand's fragile coalition government to the brink of collapse. Hostilities broke out last Thursday and have escalated into the worst fighting between the Southeast Asian neighbours in more than a decade. The death toll has risen above 30, including more than 20 civilians, while authorities report that more than 200,000 people have been evacuated from border areas. Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim had proposed ceasefire talks soon after the border dispute erupted into conflict on Thursday, and China and the United States also offered to assist in negotiations. Thailand had said it supported calls for a ceasefire in principle but wanted to negotiate bilaterally, while Cambodia had called for international involvement. Anwar said he expected to chair the negotiations after being asked by representatives of the two governments to try to find a peace settlement, state media agency Bernama reported. 'So, I'm discussing the parameters, the conditions, but what is important is (an) immediate ceasefire,' he said late on Sunday