As Trump concerns mount, Ishiba hears advice from across the aisle

Japan Times

30-04-2025

As his chief trade negotiator heads to the U.S. for talks with President Donald Trump's administration, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is getting lots of advice, including from leaders of the main opposition parties, on how best to deal with Trump's demands — and not just on the threat of tariffs.
Comments from the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, Nippon Ishin no Kai and the Democratic Party for the People reflect both a sense of national crisis over the tariffs and the need for the opposition to show voters they are prepared to step in and deal with the U.S., should the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito coalition lose its majority in the July Upper House election.
CDP leader Yoshihiko Noda, who served as prime minister with the now-defunct Democratic Party of Japan, is calling for a strategy toward the U.S. that emphasizes Japan's commitment to multilateral, rather than just bilateral, free trade.
'When engaging in negotiations with the U.S., it's essential to adopt a broader strategic approach to economic diplomacy. Japan should declare that it's necessary to establish an international order based on the ironclad rule of obeying the rules,' Noda told Ishiba during an April 23 party leaders' debate.
'At multilateral meetings, we can gently but firmly request a reconsideration of Trump's current tariff policy, arguing that it violates WTO rules and the Japan-U.S. Automobile Agreement,' he said.
In Noda's view, Japan should pressure the U.S. by cooperating more with multilateral trade blocks the U.S. does not belong to, such as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) — an 11-nation group that Japan took the lead in forming after the U.S. pulled out during Trump's first term. That, Noda said, later led the U.S. to make concessions when it came time to sign the 2019 U.S.-Japan agreement on autos.
Noda also spoke of the European Union's interest in the CPTPP, and suggested that Japan could engage in more economic diplomacy with the Association of Southeast Asian (ASEAN) nations, as well as with countries such as South Korea and China, which are part of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership agreement — a free trade agreement among Asia-Pacific countries.
'If the U.S. unfortunately finds itself unable to continue waving the flag of free trade, Japan must be prepared to take up that flag, and lead the way in establishing a network of free trade zones,' Noda said.
In emphasizing a multilateral approach, Noda is also trying to show voters how the CDP is taking a different approach to dealing with the U.S.
'Ishiba is trying to overcome problems between the U.S. and Japan by making efforts to build personal trust between the leaders of both countries, as he put his close aide (Ryosei) Akazawa in charge of negotiations," said Kentaro Yamamoto, a political scientist at Kokugakuin University. "Noda seems to be trying to emphasize the dangers of relying on such personal relationships to find solutions, and to highlight his diplomatic steadfastness.'
Nippon Ishin's co-leader Seiji Maehara, on the other hand, has spoken of the need to take Trump's criticism of the U.S.-Japan Security treaty as being "one-sided" seriously, focusing on the possibility of U.S. troops being withdrawn if Japan does not pay more for hosting them.
'Once again, Trump is saying Japan doesn't have to defend the United States. This could be a bluff to increase the cost on Japan of stationing U.S. troops. However, I think it's dangerous to think of it as just a bluff,' Maehara said on April 23 during a debate with Ishiba.
Even if Japan agrees to Trump's demand to increase troop stationing costs, Maehara added, the president might still threaten to withdraw them, creating more problems.
'So we need to thoroughly reexamine the nature of the U.S.-Japan security treaty by taking future risk management into consideration,' he said.
Maehara and his party are in favor of revising the Constitution to legally recognize the Self-Defense Forces, which could lead to changes in the security treaty that would make Japan less susceptible to threats of U.S. troop withdrawals. Establishing a constitutional basis could allow the SDF to expand its role and make Japan's security less reliant on U.S. troops.
'If we want to ensure reciprocity in the security treaty, constitutional reform is necessary,' Maehara said.
But Maehara, who has a good personal relationship with Ishiba and has cooperated with the LDP to pass the 2025 fiscal year budget, has not pushed hard for constitutional revision. His April 23 comments can also be seen within the context of Nippon Ishin's political situation at home. Former Nippon Ishin leader Nobuyuki Baba and some of his allies appear unhappy with Maehara's leadership.
'Baba has long been a proponent of constitutional reform, so perhaps Maehara brought up the issue as a way to satisfy him,' Yamamoto said.
Unlike Noda and Maehara, DPP leader Yuichiro Tamaki has offered little in the way of specific advice to the government for its current and future Trump negotiation strategy. Instead, he urged Ishiba to pay more attention to the economy, especially on issues like increasing wages and abolishing the gasoline tax, two key DPP policies Tamaki hopes will appeal to voters in July.
'The government may be preoccupied with Trump's tariffs. But while it's good to look at Washington, D.C., it's also important to look at the lives of ordinary people in Japan,' Tamaki told reporters following the leaders' debate.
While there is great concern among the ruling and opposition parties over the U.S. under Trump, that is unlikely to lead to a fundamental shift in policy toward the U.S. anytime soon. Both sides believe that regardless of who is president, the U.S.-Japan security alliance will remain the linchpin of Japan's diplomacy and security.
At the same time, political journalist Takuya Nishimura said some parties might use the Upper House election to make minor changes to their policy platforms with the Trump administration in mind.
'For instance, the DPP promised in its 2024 Lower House platform that it would promote strategic economic diplomacy, related to free trade agreement, to preserve Japan's national interest, including automobile or agriculture,' Nishimura said.
The DPP and other parties might therefore decide to make additions to their Upper House policy platforms with Trump, the U.S., and tariff negotiations in mind, Nishimura added, even if their basic approach to the U.S. remains unchanged.