Israel-Iran conflict may send prices higher, spark broader economic fallout

Business Standard

20 hours ago

Israel's attack on Iran Friday has catapulted their long-running conflict into what could become a wider, more dangerous regional war and potentially drive prices higher for both businesses and households.
Oil and gold surged and the dollar rose as markets retreated, signalling a flight to investments perceived as more safe.
After years of sky-high inflation in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic, Americans have become increasingly leery about the economy this year due to President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs, though the impact so far has been muted.
The latest escalation in the Middle East has the potential to cause widespread price increases that could set consumers back again.
Here's a look at some of the sectors that could face an outsized impact from the escalation in the Middle East, and what that might mean for consumers.
Energy
Oil prices surged Friday to their biggest gain since the onset of Russia's war on Ukraine began more than three years ago. If or when Israel's attack on Iran could impact gas prices, which have been in decline for nearly a year, isn't entirely clear.
Iran is one of the world's major producers of oil, though sanctions by Western countries have limited its sales. If a wider war erupts, it could significantly slow or stop the flow of Iran's oil to its customers. Energy prices have been held in check this year because production has remained relatively high, and demand for it low. A widening conflict could tilt that balance.
The loss of this export supply would wipe out the surplus that was expected in the fourth quarter of this year, analysts for ING wrote in a note to clients.
In the past, conflicts in the Middle East have sent energy price soaring for extended periods but in recent years, because of the huge supply of oil, those spikes have been more fleeting.
Earlier this month, the countries in the OPEC+ alliance decided to increase production again, which often pushes crude prices down. They hit a four-year low in early May. That usually means cheaper gas, of which there is currently a surplus.
According to the auto club organization AAA, the average price for a gallon of gas in the US on Friday was $3.13 per gallon, down from $3.46 a year ago.
Shipping
Shipping costs were already on the rise for a number of reasons. Cargo is being rerouted around the Red Sea where the US began conducting air strikes on Yemen's Houthis, the Iran-backed rebels who were attacking ships on what is a vital global trade route. And this year, companies have scrambled to import as many goods as possible before Trump's tariffs kicked in, pushing demand, and prices to ship, higher.
The Baltic Dry Index, a key indicator of dry bulk shipping demand that tacks the movement of coal, iron ore, grains and more, is hitting eight-month highs.
The window for companies seeking to ship goods before the year's end is coming to a close this month. A widening conflict in the Middle East would only drive prices higher as those companies jostle to get goods from overseas as geopolitical tensions in the region rise.
Shares of ocean shipping companies like Teekay and Frontline rose sharply following Israel's attack.
Consumer goods
Higher energy prices can lead to elevated costs for a wide range of products because just about everything is made and transported using oil or natural gas.
Government data this week revealed that Trump's tariffs have yet to cause a broader rise in inflation. Still, many companies have announced price hikes due to the tariffs. Walmart has already raised prices on some goods and said it will do so again as the back-to-school shopping season begins.
J M Smucker, largely due to the impact of tariffs on coffee from Brazil and Vietnam, said it's also raised prices and will do so again.
Combined with the higher shipping and production costs that could result from the escalated Middle East conflict, prices will almost certainly rise further, analysts say.
Inventory buffers may have allowed firms to put off decisions about raising prices, but that won't be the case for much longer, the ING analysts said. We expect to see bigger spikes in the month-on-month inflation figures through the summer, they added, noting that The Fed's recent Beige Book cited widespread reports of aggressive price hikes already in the pipeline.
Federal Reserve
Federal Reserve officials meet next week to make their next interest rate decision, and the vast majority of economists still think the US central bank will leave its benchmark rate where it is for the fourth straight time. The Fed has been juggling its dual mandate of supporting the labour market while keeping inflation at bay.
That goal may become increasingly difficult to achieve if prices for gas, food and other essential rise due to the Israel-Iran conflict.
If prices go up, Fed officials may be inclined to raise its benchmark rate, raising borrowing costs for businesses and consumers. That could lead to businesses to cut jobs, particularly in the high-growth tech sector, and force Americans to pull back on spending, which drives more than 70% of economic activity in the US.
Shares of tech companies and retailers were among the biggest decliners Friday.
Travel
Perhaps contrary to conventional wisdom, one cascading effect of the heightened Middle East tension may be that the cost of travelling, even if fuel prices rise, will come down.
Airlines have been downgrading their travel forecasts as businesses and families tighten their travel budgets in anticipation of tariff-related price hikes. Several major air disasters also have made some wary of getting on a plane.
Most major US airlines have said they plan to reduce their scheduled domestic flights this summer, citing an ebb in economy passengers booking leisure trips. Last month, Bank of America reported that its credit card customers were spending less on flights and lodging.
And because of the Trump tariff wars, the dollar has fallen almost 10% this year when measured against a basket of foreign currencies, making it more expensive for Americans to travel abroad due to unfavourable exchange rates.
On Friday, shares of major US airlines were in sharp retreat.