Iraq treads a tightrope to avoid spillover from Israel-Iran conflict
But with Baghdad both an ally of Iran and a strategic partner of the United States, Israel's closest supporter, it may struggle to avoid the fighting spreading to its territory.
"There is a sizable risk of a spillover escalation in Iraq," said political analyst Sajad Jiyad.
"Iraqis have a right to be worried," he added.
With warnings of all-out regional war intensifying following Israel's surprise assault on Iran last week, fears are growing over an intervention by Iran-backed Iraqi factions, which have been calling for the withdrawal of US troops deployed in Iraq as part of an anti-jihadist coalition.
A senior Iraqi security official told AFP on condition of anonymity that among pro-Iran actors "everyone is cooperating with the government to keep Iraq away from conflict."
But Jiyad warned that if the US supports Israel's attacks, it "may lead to pro-Iran elements inside Iraq targeting US troops" or other American interests like the embassy in Baghdad or the consulate in Erbil, the capital of the autonomous Kurdistan region.
This could lead to the US and Israel taking retaliatory actions within Iraq, Jiyad added.
Iraq, which has been for years navigating a delicate balancing act between Tehran and Washington, has long been a fertile ground for proxy battles.
- 'On standby' -
In 2020, during US President Donald Trump's first term, Washington killed Iran's esteemed Revolutionary Guards general Qasem Soleimani in Baghdad.
Most recently, amid the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, Iraq was on the brink of being drawn into the conflict after pro-Iran factions launched numerous attacks on US troops in the region, as well as mostly failed attacks on Israel, in support of Palestinians.
Washington retaliated by hitting the armed groups.
In recent days, Baghdad has been working diplomatic channels to prevent the latest violence from spreading onto its turf.
It has called on Washington to prevent Israeli jets from using Iraqi airspace to carry out attacks against Iran.
It also asked Iran not to strike US targets in its territory, and was promised "positive things", according to a senior Iraqi official.
Israel's use of Iraq's airspace has angered pro-Iran groups, who accused US troops of allowing it.
Powerful armed faction Kataeb Hezbollah stressed that Iran does not need "military support", but it said that the group is "closely monitoring" the US military in the region.
It warned that if Washington intervenes in the war, the group "will act directly against its interests and bases in the region without hesitation."
A US official urged the Iraqi government to "protect diplomatic missions, as well as US military personnel."
"We believe Iraq will be more stable and sovereign by becoming energy independent and distancing itself from Iran's malign influence," the official told AFP, referring to Iraq's dependency on gas imports from Iran.
The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, warned that Iran-backed groups "continue to engage in violent and destabilising activities in Iraq."
Not alone
Israel's surprise attack on Iran targeted military and nuclear facilities and killed many top commanders and atomic scientists. Iran responded by unleashing barrages of missile strikes on Israel.
Tamer Badawi, an expert on Iraqi armed groups, said "the more Iran struggles to sustain its firepower against Israel, the likelier it becomes that Iraqi paramilitary actors will be drawn in."
For now, "Iran is trying to avoid collateral damage to its network by keeping its regional allies on standby. But this posture could shift," he added.
Before launching its attack on Iran, Israel had badly hit Tehran's proxies in the region, significantly weakening some groups, including Lebanon's Hezbollah.
"Beyond attacks within Iraq, Iran-backed Iraqi groups retain the capacity to target Israel from western Iraq using their missile arsenals, as they have done before," Badawi said.
They might also target American interests in Jordan.
But Iraqi officials say they have other plans for their country, which has only recently regained a semblance of stability after decades of devastating conflicts and turmoil.
Iraq is gearing up for its legislative elections in November, which are often marked by heated political wrangling.
For armed groups, elections are a crucial battleground as they strive to secure more seats in parliament.
"Sometimes, the sword must be kept in the sheath, but this does not mean abandoning our weapons," a commander of an armed faction told AFP.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
France 24
30 minutes ago
- France 24
What Israel really wants in Iran
When Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu laid out his goals after launching strikes on Iran on Friday last week, he said that the Islamic Republic's nuclear weapons and existing ballistic missiles were the primary targets of the Israeli operation. The goal was to end the 'existential threat' Israel says it faces from Iran, which has long denied Israel's right to exist. But the latest air strikes seem to tell a different story. Israeli attacks targeted an Iranian foreign ministry building and the defence ministry in Tehran on Sunday. Police headquarters in the city centre were also hit by Israeli jets that same day. On Monday, Israel said it had struck the command centre of Iran's Quds Force, the branch of the elite Revolutionary Guards that coordinates operations outside the country and reports directly to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. These new targets are much more closely tied to the heart of the Iranian regime's military and political decision-making fulcrum than to its nuclear programme. Priorities Israel on Saturday also targeted the massive South Pars gas field, which is the world's largest reservoir of natural gas. 'The logic [for the Israeli government] is incremental. There is a priority of targets,' explained Clive Jones, professor of regional security at Durham University's School of Government and International Affairs. The first is to significantly slow down – or potentially end – Iran's nuclear programme. 'The second is to target military delivery systems and the leadership that controls them,' Jones said. Jones believes the second priority was the reasoning behind Israel's attacks on the gas field. 'If you look at the strikes Israel has conducted, what they've tried to do is hit fuel plants that supply the Iranian military – those associated with their rockets programmes, for example, or refuelling tankers,' Jones said. 'They've not yet really hit civilian energy infrastructure. That may be something that comes later, depending on what happens next.' Other targets might be chosen for shock value, according to Middle East expert Filippo Dionigi of the University of Bristol. Attacks on buildings linked to the regime or the targeted assassinations of officials can be seen as an attempt by Israel to 'shock the enemy and try to subvert its chain of command and create chaos, so that it slows down its capacity to react', Dionigi said. 01:33 The Octopus Doctrine Israel's multi-pronged strategy is also known as the 'Octopus Doctrine', which was first established by former prime minister Naftali Bennett in 2021, said Veronika Poniscjakova, an expert on conflicts in the Middle East at Portsmouth University. 'Iran is the octopus with tentacles all around the Middle East,' Poniscjakova said, with proxies like Hezbollah in Lebanon or Hamas in Gaza. Its new approach means that Israel will 'no longer go after the tentacles of the octopus, [targeting these groups] or carrying out covert attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities [as with] the Stuxnet computer virus, but go for the octopus's head directly … striking at the source of the threat – the regime itself'. But the scope of Israel's strikes on Iran could suggest the country has broader geopolitical goals, some analysts believe. 'Israel is aiming for a regime collapse in Iran. That is the only reason they would attack energy infrastructures, to increase social unrest against the Islamic Republic by the Iranian people,' said Shahin Modarres, director of the Iran Desk at the International Team for the Study of Security Verona. And if Israel decides to target civilian energy infrastructure exclusively, power cuts across the country could become more frequent, widespread, and eventually 'undermine the trust the population has in its leaders', Dionigi said. The Iranian health ministry has said that 90 percent of casualties so far are civilians. Strikes on political buildings and the targeting of the state-run TV during a live broadcast could be seen as a way to signal to the Iranian opposition that '[they] can exploit the opportunity to stand up against the regime', Poniscjakova explained. 09:40 Most tellingly, Netanyahu issued a direct appeal to Iranians as the Israeli offensive began on Friday, saying he hoped the military operation will 'clear the path for you to achieve your freedom'. "This is your opportunity to stand up [to the regime]," he added. Netanyahu's 'social media post aimed at the Iranian people, in which he effectively says Israel is paving the way and targeting a regime that has kept you repressed', Jones said, adding that the post made it pretty clear the Israeli premier is hoping for regime change. But whether an internal revolt is something that can be encouraged by a competing regional power that has long been at odds with Iran is far from certain. An 'existential war' for Iran Israel's bombing of Iranian police headquarters in Tehran and its subsequent attacks on the ministry of intelligence and security 'could degrade the regime's ability to maintain internal security and social control' on a practical level, according to a report published by the Institute for the Study of War on Monday. But it remains to be seen whether Iranian leadership can be weakened to the point where it is no longer capable of halting an uprising. 'That's the ultimate question that nobody can really answer, at least for now,' Jones said. Any interference from abroad could also backfire. 'External interference in the political affairs of a country rarely has the effect of simply provoking a reaction against the leadership,' Dionigi said. 'Interference could have the opposite outcome and awaken a sense of national awareness, national pride and regrouping.' In other words, in positioning himself as a supporter of the Iranian opposition, Netanyahu could actually strengthen the regime – at least for the duration of the war. The Israeli prime minister is taking a 'huge risk' by going beyond his initial aim of dismantling Iran's nuclear programme. 'When countries are under attack, there is a tendency for people to rally around the flag, even if they dislike the regime,' Jones said. 'For the Iranian regime, this is an existential war,' Dionigi added. 'They will use all of their military capacity for as long as necessary to guarantee their existence.' For Netanyahu there is also the looming threat of greater escalation that could lead to 'a higher number of civilian fatalities [in Israel], which could put more political pressure on the government', Modarres said. 'It all depends on how [Netanyahu] ends this war. Either he dismantles the Islamic Republic's nuclear programme and manages to conduct a regime change, or it backfires and his political career ends,' he added.
France 24
2 hours ago
- France 24
Iranian pilgrims in Iraq long to return home
The more than 400 Iranians had recently completed their hajj pilgrimage to Mecca in Saudi Arabia, and since crossing the border by land into Iraq, they had not received any updates. One woman dressed in black collapsed in tears after receiving a message informing her that her son was missing after Israeli strikes on Tehran, and that her son-in-law -- an official killed in a bombardment -- had been laid to rest in her absence. Other women sighed with relief when they finally connected with children and grandchildren via video call. "We fear for our children," Amna Hammudi said, her voice trembling, before finally managing to reach her kids in Iran after two days of silence. "We are all worried about our families, our cities and our country," the mother of four added. In a parking lot in Ayn Tamr, near the Shiite holy city of Karbala, 10 buses wait for permission to transport the pilgrims to the Mehran border crossing between Iraq and Iran. 'They brought war on us' Iraq is expected to receive 76,000 Iranian pilgrims by land after they were stranded in Saudi Arabia by airport closures following the surprise Israeli attack on Iran last week. It will welcome 2,500 Iranian pilgrims a day in the hope of facilitating their return home, according to Sami al-Massudi, the head of the Iraqi body for pilgrims to Saudi Arabia. Aziz Yussef, 55, said he was still in Saudi Arabia when he learned that a strike hit one kilometre (0.6 miles) from his house in the western city of Kermanshah. "They brought war on us. They are not only fighting us, but also Gaza and Syria, and the Americans are not stopping them," Yussef said. Yussef urged the Iraqi government to speed up the process of getting pilgrims like him home, but even if he crosses into Iran, he doesn't know how he will reach Kermanshah. Whenever an internet connection is available, Yussef and his wife are glued to their phones and the television, hoping for good news. 'God knows' On Friday, Israel launched a surprise attack on its arch foe Iran, hitting military and nuclear facilities and killing top commanders and atomic scientists. It has kept up its bombing campaign since then, with at least 224 people killed in strikes, according to Iranian authorities. Iran has responded with multiple missile salvos targeting Israeli cities, killing at least 24 people there, according to the prime minister's office. Residential areas in both countries have suffered deadly strikes, and large numbers of people have fled Iran's capital. US President Donald Trump warned early Tuesday that Tehran residents should "immediately evacuate" amid fears of a broader conflict that could engulf the region. Kadir Ansari, 70, had just contacted his family back home. "They are good," he said with relief. In residential areas, "there are no armies and no bombs. You are sleeping, and they hit you," he added. Ansari was still in Medina in Saudi Arabia when he learned about the Israeli assault, and now he fears what may come next. Nonetheless, he insists on going back to Kermanshah. "God knows" what will happen after that, he said. © 2025 AFP
France 24
2 hours ago
- France 24
Male victim breaks 'suffocating' silence on Kosovo war rapes
The father-of-three was raped by a Serbian policeman during the bloody conflict between Albanian guerillas and Serbian armed forces in 1998 and 1999 that eventually saw Kosovo break away from Belgrade. Officials estimate Serbian forces raped up to 20,000 women during the war in which 13,000 people -- mostly ethnic Albanian civilians -- died. Human Rights Watch said Albanian fighters also raped Serbian, Albanian and Roma women in a 2000 report documenting widespread abuse by the combatants. But the precise number is buried by "a deeply entrenched social stigma, which still overshadows wartime rapes", said Bekim Blakaj of Kosovo's Humanitarian Law Center. Nishori told AFP that he hopes his own "difficult" journey -- which at times left him suicidal -- will help others find the strength to cast a light into the darkest corners of the war's atrocities. The 48-year-old said he would not have been able to come forward without his family's support. "It has given me strength. It has played a very, very big role," he said. 'I walked and cried at night' But he knows that the war, which only ended when NATO bombed the Serbian forces into submission, has left many more struggling alone. "I was suffocating. I would leave the house at night. I would feel like screaming. I would walk and cry," he told AFP. The Kosovo government acknowledged the suffering of the victims of wartime rapes by paying them a pension of 270 euros ($313) a month. But 11 years after it was set up, only a few hundred women get the payment. Nishori will be the first man to receive it. Activists say many survivors will never come forward due to the shame attached to rape in Albanian society. "Rape is perceived by our society more as a violation of family honour," said Veprore Shehu from Medica Kosova, which has given psychological support to some 600 female survivors. Nishori's nightmare began when he was pulled from a refugee column in September 1998. He was taken for interrogation to a police station in Drenas -- about 23 kilometres (14 miles) west of Pristina. "When it was my turn to be interrogated, around midnight, two policemen took me to the toilet, where one of them raped me," he said, taking deep breaths as he slowly recounted his ordeal. "When another policeman wanted to do the same, a third policeman came, and perhaps because of my screams, snatched me away from them and returned me to a cell." 'Weapon of war' Blakaj said the vast majority of sexual abuse was perpetrated by Serbian forces on ethnic Albanian women. By the end of the conflict, it had become "a weapon of war" used to create terror among civilians, he said. "Rape by police, paramilitaries and armed forces became widespread and almost routine," a 2017 Amnesty International report into the war concluded. A Serbian army deserter quoted in the report described sexual violence as "normal like taking a shower and having breakfast". On Tuesday, a Pristina court sentenced a Kosovo Serb to 15 years prison for rape during the conflict after a closed trial. It is just the second prosecution for rape during the Kosovo war, a mark of how slow the road to justice has been for victims of crimes now decades old. When Nishori finally revealed his abuse to his family, his oldest daughter, Flutura, urged him to go public. "Dad's story needed to be revealed to show that it wasn't just women who were victims of sexual violence, but men too," the 23-year-old theatre student said. "Nothing has changed in the family since the secret was revealed," she told AFP.
