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Hindustan Times
6 days ago
- Politics
- Hindustan Times
Beware Iran's New Ruling Elite
All wars have consequences, particularly for the vanquished. For the Islamic Republic of Iran, the 12-Day War—its recent conflict with Israel and the U.S.—hasn't been a soul-scorching, society-rending fight in the way of the Iran-Iraq War. From 1980-88, hundreds of thousands perished and battlefield trauma nearly cracked the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the theocracy's indispensable pillar. But that conflict did offer an opportunity for Iran: The struggle led the regime to build institutions that guaranteed the revolution's survival. The 12-Day War, by contrast, has weakened the heads of those institutions substantially and looks likely to launch a new generation of leaders. That's bad news for Israel and America. Today, the regime is defined ideologically by its fight against Israel and the U.S. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and his minions have tried to claim victory over the Jewish state in the 12-Day War. But whatever they say in public, the overwhelming sentiment among them is surely not pride but shame. The loss has greatly diminished the supreme leader's stature. And the consequences of defeat will catapult little-known, hard-core believers—the Revolutionary Guard officers who proved themselves against the Syrian rebellion a decade ago—into the weakened ruling elite. The headline for Israel and America: These men won't compromise on the regime's nuclear-weapon ambitions. And that's about all we know of them. During the Islamic Revolution in 1978-79, neither Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini nor many of his senior adjutants were enigmas to those who had studied Iran. They told us their goals and motivations. As those revolutionaries aged, they compiled their speeches, wrote books or allowed others to chronicle their intellectual evolution. The new crew on the cusp of power today is comparatively illiterate. These men have a thin paper trail because they see little reason to explain themselves to their countrymen or to the outside world. They are drawn from militant groups such as the Paydari Front and the second tier of the Revolutionary Guards. They look to guidance from the likes of the religiously obsessional Saeed Jalili, a former nuclear negotiator who abjures compromise. They are found in the security organs, occupy seats in parliament and run their own education centers. They have created their own underground shadow government and ideological ecosystem. The supreme leader's weakened position has left these men an opening. If Mr. Khamenei had crossed the nuclear threshold and tested a weapon—as voices within the Revolutionary Guards advised him to do months ago—Iran would probably have foreclosed the possibility of foreign attacks. Now the 86-year-old cleric has to worry about dangerous discontent among battle-hardened soldiers. No matter how much the regime tries to play on Iranian nationalism, it's unlikely to recapture the citizenry, who no longer see theocrats and their enforcers as estimable expressions of their national identity or faith. To crush the countrywide Women, Life, Freedom movement in 2023—the most recent of many undermining protests—the regime beat, tortured, poisoned and killed young women and girls. Such brutality permanently severs the bonds between society and state. Even Israeli and American bombing runs won't restore them. Indeed, the rising generation of the Revolutionary Guards have defined themselves by their willingness to brutalize their countrymen repeatedly. And these guardsmen have had two other core commitments: the A-bomb program and the proxy war strategy devised by their fallen hero, Qassem Soleimani, the Revolutionary Guard dark lord whom an American missile felled in Baghdad in 2020. Israel's onslaught against these proxies since Oct. 7, 2023, has badly battered, perhaps permanently crippled, Soleimani's proxy-based 'axis of resistance' against the Jewish state and the U.S. But the nuclear-weapon ambitions remain viable. Moving forward, the Islamic Republic is unlikely to construct large enrichment plants such as Natanz or rely on mountains to protect its atomic assets. U.S. and Israeli satellite and aerial reconnaissance is too good, and construction times for new underground facilities are too long. Numerous, easily concealed surface facilities are now a better bet—so long as the regime can neutralize foreign spies in Iran. The mullahs have already launched a nationwide dragnet to cleanse their government of spies. These vicious counterintelligence measures will paralyze nuclear construction for a time, but eventually could enable a clandestine nuclear program that neither Jerusalem nor Washington can stop. The Iranians and Israelis are in a deadly intelligence duel. During the Cold War, Western and Soviet intelligence services continuously went at each other, but destiny seldom hung in the balance. The doctrine of mutually assured destruction provided some comfort and maneuvering room. Israelis are less certain that the threat of mutual annihilation works with the Islamic Republic's zealots. Are there enough Iranians in the right places who will risk their lives and the lives of their loved ones to stop the mullahs and the Revolutionary Guards from obtaining the ultimate weapon? Even if Israel has developed a technical capacity to penetrate Iranian official communications, it's still the most pressing question before the Mossad. A second question also looms: Can Jerusalem learn enough about the new, fiercely anti-Zionist members of the Iranian elite to frustrate or compromise them? Learning where they live, though obviously important, will be the easy part. Mr. Gerecht, a former Iranian-targets officer in the Central Intelligence Agency, is a resident scholar at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Mr. Takeyh is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.
Reuters
22-07-2025
- Politics
- Reuters
Iran warns citizens of growing recruitment attempts by enemies, state media say
DUBAI, July 22 (Reuters) - The intelligence unit of Iran's Revolutionary Guards has warned Iranian citizens of an increase in recruitment attempts by enemy intelligence agencies, state media reported on Tuesday. Entangled in a decades-long shadow war with Israel, which was able to assassinate numerous military commanders and nuclear scientists in its 12-day air war on Iran last month, Iran is ever more concerned about infiltration by the Israeli Mossad spy agency. (This story has been refiled to change 'intelligence service' to 'intelligence unit' in paragraph 1)
Yahoo
22-07-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Iran warns citizens of growing recruitment attempts by enemies, state media say
(Changes intelligence service to intelligence unit in paragraph 1) DUBAI (Reuters) - The intelligence unit of Iran's Revolutionary Guards has warned Iranian citizens of an increase in recruitment attempts by enemy intelligence agencies, state media reported on Tuesday. Entangled in a decades-long shadow war with Israel, which was able to assassinate numerous military commanders and nuclear scientists in its 12-day air war on Iran last month, Iran is ever more concerned about infiltration by the Israeli Mossad spy agency. Solve the daily Crossword
Al Arabiya
22-07-2025
- Politics
- Al Arabiya
Iran warns citizens of growing recruitment attempt by enemies: State media
The intelligence service of Iran's Revolutionary Guards has warned Iranian citizens of an increase in recruitment attempts by enemy intelligence agencies, state media reported on Tuesday. Entangled in a decades-long shadow war with Israel, which was able to assassinate numerous military commanders and nuclear scientists in its 12-day air war on Iran last month, Iran is ever more concerned about infiltration by the Israeli Mossad spy agency.
Khabar Agency
18-07-2025
- Politics
- Khabar Agency
National Resistance Thwarts Largest Smuggling Operation of Iranian Weapons to Houthi Militia
The National Resistance announced on Thursday that it had thwarted one of the largest smuggling operations of Iranian weapons to the Houthi militia. The high-profile operation was carried out by its naval forces and intelligence units in mid-June in the Red Sea. In a statement, the military media of the National Resistance reported that the operation took place on **June 27**, resulting in the seizure of a smuggling vessel named **"Al-Sharwa."** The ship was carrying a massive shipment of advanced weapons, estimated at **750 tons**, sent by Iran's Revolutionary Guards to their proxy, the Houthi militia in Yemen. The statement added that the confiscated weapons included: - **Air defense and missile systems** (naval and aerial) - **Attack and reconnaissance drones** - **Advanced radar systems** - **Launching systems** - **Eavesdropping devices** - **Konkurs anti-tank missiles** - **B10 cannons** - **Advanced sniper rifles** - **Tracking lenses** - **Large quantities of ammunition** (including Kalashnikov and "Shiki" rounds) and other military equipment. The Resistance emphasized that this smuggling operation exposes **Iran's ongoing scheme to arm the terrorist Houthi militia**, debunking the group's claims of having "domestic military manufacturing capabilities." It also reveals the extent of the threat posed by the Iranian regime to **international navigation in the Red Sea** through its armed proxies. The statement noted that the weapons were **tightly concealed**: strategic systems were disassembled and hidden inside **electric generators and industrial machinery**, while ammunition was stashed within **large battery compartments** to mislead maritime surveillance units. The military media detailed that the operation began with **precise intelligence tracking** of a suspicious vessel departing from the **coast of the Horn of Africa**, operated by smugglers linked to the Houthi militia. Naval forces of the Resistance then intercepted the ship **west of the international maritime route in the Red Sea**, towing it to a secure area where the cargo was unloaded and documented. The National Resistance stated that it would soon release **confessions from the ship's crew** and broadcast footage showing samples of the seized weapons and equipment.
