Trump has dudded Ukraine. Can Europe come to its rescue?
The big shift among European leaders is the hardening in their language about military options. This is not just about meeting Trump's demand to spend 5 per cent of GDP on defence – a long-term aspiration. It is about doing more – fast – to help Ukraine, and in doing so, helping themselves.
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, a key figure now that Denmark has taken the presidency of the EU for the second half of this year, summed this up at a press conference with Zelensky and European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen last Thursday.
'The war in Ukraine has never been only about Ukraine – it's about Europe,' she said in Aarhus. 'All of us hope that [the] US will continue their support for Ukraine, and because of Ukraine, for Europe. But if there are any gaps, then I personally believe that we should be willing to fill in.'
The ambition is clear. The capacity, however, is not. The huge question in Europe is whether the major powers have the industrial capacity – the sheer military muscle – to match Russia at a time when Putin shows no sign of stopping the war in Ukraine and every sign he wants to start fights elsewhere. The latest evidence is in Azerbaijan, where Russia is turning on its former ally.
Can Europe counter Putin in the grim scenario of outright war? No less than Mark Rutte, the secretary general of NATO, admits the Europeans do not have the military might they need.
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'We have an enormous geopolitical challenge on our hands,' Rutte told The New York Times in a sobering interview on the weekend. 'And that is first of all Russia, which is reconstituting itself at a pace and a speed which is unparalleled in recent history. They are now producing three times as much ammunition in three months as the whole of NATO is doing in a year.'
Put simply, the blockades and sanctions are not enough. Russia is rebuilding. Rutte added a warning about China's military ambitions, as well. China, Russia, Iran and North Korea – the CRINKs – are sharing military technology in a way that steadily increases the risk to the West.
The Shahed drones that deliver death from the air show the CRINK economic model in action. The drones are based on an Iranian design but have been adapted by Russia in more lethal versions. They are made in Russia using parts from China. One day soon, according to Japanese news site NHK, they may be assembled by visiting North Korean workers.
The argument about defence spending as a percentage of GDP in 2030 seems hopelessly abstract in the light of concrete facts. Right now, for all its economic wealth, western Europe lacks the capacity to match Putin where it counts – in the missile bombardment seen over Ukraine.
Ukraine's military intelligence, known as the HUR, estimates Russia is producing 60 to 70 of its Iskander ballistic missiles and more than 10 of the hypersonic Kinzhals each month. That suggests an annual tally of 960 – although it is obviously difficult to be certain.
That sum is greater than the American production of Patriot air defence missiles – the essential systems Trump is denying Ukraine. Lockheed-Martin has increased annual output of the Patriot PAC-3 MSE to 400 units a year and is aiming for 500 this year and 650 in a few years' time.
So America has the stockpiles to help Ukraine, but it also has a challenge in matching Putin.
Europe, meanwhile, is struggling to keep up. Fabian Hoffmann, a research fellow at the University of Oslo and a non-resident fellow at the Centre for European Policy Analysis, says the European public will be 'enraged' if war comes and civilians discover the failure of their leaders to invest in missile defence.
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Hoffmann estimates Europe's annual production of the PAC-3 MSE interceptor is about 550 units a year. Europe makes other defence systems, so this is not the full picture, but he believes the number of available systems is far too low.
European leaders have responded to this moment with fine words. They know they must do what Trump will not. But the meeting this Thursday may only highlight the severe challenge in turning words into actions.
This is a shocking state for Europe more than a decade after Putin began his military incursion into Ukraine and more than three years after he launched a full-scale war that is dominated by missile and drone attacks. Putin told the world about the future of war. Too many were too slow to listen.
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The Advertiser
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President Donald Trump has threatened to impose a 30 per cent tariff on imports from Mexico and the European Union starting in August, after weeks of negotiations with the major US trading partners failed to reach a comprehensive trade deal. In an escalation of a trade war that has angered US allies and rattled investors, Trump announced the latest tariffs in separate letters to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum on Saturday. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said she was sure an agreement can be reached. "I've always said that in these cases, what you have to do is keep a cool head to face any problem," Sheinbaum said at an event in the Mexican state of Sonora. "(But) there's something that's never negotiable: the sovereignty of our country," she said. Trump sent similar letters to 23 other trading partners this week, including Canada, Japan and Brazil, setting blanket tariff rates ranging from 20 per cent up to 50 per cent, as well as a 50 per cent tariff on copper. The US president said the 30 per cent rate was "separate from all sectoral tariffs", indicating 50 per cent levies on steel and aluminium imports and a 25 per cent tariff on auto imports would remain. The August 1 deadline gives the targeted countries time to negotiate. Some investors and economists have also noted Trump's pattern of backing off his tariff threats. The spate of letters showed Trump has returned to the aggressive trade posture that he took in April when he announced a slew of reciprocal tariffs against trading partners that sent markets tumbling before the White House delayed implementation. But with the stock market recently hitting record highs and the US economy still resilient, Trump is showing no signs of slowing down his trade war. He promised to use the 90-day delay in April to strike dozens of new trade deals, but has only secured framework agreements with Britain, China and Vietnam. The EU has hoped to reach a comprehensive trade agreement with the US for the 27-country bloc. Trump's letter to the EU included a demand that Europe drop its own tariffs. "The European Union will allow complete, open Market Access to the United States, with no Tariff being charged to us, in an attempt to reduce the large Trade Deficit," he wrote. Von der Leyen said the 30 per cent tariffs "would disrupt essential transatlantic supply chains, to the detriment of businesses, consumers and patients on both sides of the Atlantic". The EU "will take all necessary steps to safeguard EU interests, including the adoption of proportionate countermeasures if required", she said. Mexico's economy ministry said "it was unfair treatment". Mexico's proposed tariff level is lower than Canada's 35 per cent, with both letters citing fentanyl flows even though government data shows the amount of the drug seized at the Mexican border is significantly higher than the Canadian border. "Mexico has been helping me secure the border, BUT, what Mexico has done, is not enough. Mexico still has not stopped the Cartels who are trying to turn all of North America into a Narco-Trafficking Playground," Trump wrote. Mexico sends more than 80 per cent of its total exported goods to the US and free trade with its northern neighbour drove Mexico to become the top US trading partner in 2023. The EU had initially hoped to strike a comprehensive trade agreement but more recently had scaled back its ambitions and shifted toward securing a broader framework deal similar to the one Britain brokered that leaves details to be negotiated. The bloc is under conflicting pressures as powerhouse Germany urged a quick deal to safeguard its industry, while other EU members, such as France, have said EU negotiators should not cave into a one-sided deal on US terms. Bernd Lange, the head of the European Parliament's trade committee, said Brussels should enact countermeasures as soon as Monday. "This is a slap in the face for the negotiations. This is no way to deal with a key trading partner," Lange told Reuters. President Donald Trump has threatened to impose a 30 per cent tariff on imports from Mexico and the European Union starting in August, after weeks of negotiations with the major US trading partners failed to reach a comprehensive trade deal. In an escalation of a trade war that has angered US allies and rattled investors, Trump announced the latest tariffs in separate letters to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum on Saturday. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said she was sure an agreement can be reached. "I've always said that in these cases, what you have to do is keep a cool head to face any problem," Sheinbaum said at an event in the Mexican state of Sonora. "(But) there's something that's never negotiable: the sovereignty of our country," she said. Trump sent similar letters to 23 other trading partners this week, including Canada, Japan and Brazil, setting blanket tariff rates ranging from 20 per cent up to 50 per cent, as well as a 50 per cent tariff on copper. The US president said the 30 per cent rate was "separate from all sectoral tariffs", indicating 50 per cent levies on steel and aluminium imports and a 25 per cent tariff on auto imports would remain. The August 1 deadline gives the targeted countries time to negotiate. Some investors and economists have also noted Trump's pattern of backing off his tariff threats. The spate of letters showed Trump has returned to the aggressive trade posture that he took in April when he announced a slew of reciprocal tariffs against trading partners that sent markets tumbling before the White House delayed implementation. But with the stock market recently hitting record highs and the US economy still resilient, Trump is showing no signs of slowing down his trade war. He promised to use the 90-day delay in April to strike dozens of new trade deals, but has only secured framework agreements with Britain, China and Vietnam. The EU has hoped to reach a comprehensive trade agreement with the US for the 27-country bloc. Trump's letter to the EU included a demand that Europe drop its own tariffs. "The European Union will allow complete, open Market Access to the United States, with no Tariff being charged to us, in an attempt to reduce the large Trade Deficit," he wrote. Von der Leyen said the 30 per cent tariffs "would disrupt essential transatlantic supply chains, to the detriment of businesses, consumers and patients on both sides of the Atlantic". The EU "will take all necessary steps to safeguard EU interests, including the adoption of proportionate countermeasures if required", she said. Mexico's economy ministry said "it was unfair treatment". Mexico's proposed tariff level is lower than Canada's 35 per cent, with both letters citing fentanyl flows even though government data shows the amount of the drug seized at the Mexican border is significantly higher than the Canadian border. "Mexico has been helping me secure the border, BUT, what Mexico has done, is not enough. Mexico still has not stopped the Cartels who are trying to turn all of North America into a Narco-Trafficking Playground," Trump wrote. Mexico sends more than 80 per cent of its total exported goods to the US and free trade with its northern neighbour drove Mexico to become the top US trading partner in 2023. The EU had initially hoped to strike a comprehensive trade agreement but more recently had scaled back its ambitions and shifted toward securing a broader framework deal similar to the one Britain brokered that leaves details to be negotiated. The bloc is under conflicting pressures as powerhouse Germany urged a quick deal to safeguard its industry, while other EU members, such as France, have said EU negotiators should not cave into a one-sided deal on US terms. Bernd Lange, the head of the European Parliament's trade committee, said Brussels should enact countermeasures as soon as Monday. "This is a slap in the face for the negotiations. This is no way to deal with a key trading partner," Lange told Reuters. President Donald Trump has threatened to impose a 30 per cent tariff on imports from Mexico and the European Union starting in August, after weeks of negotiations with the major US trading partners failed to reach a comprehensive trade deal. In an escalation of a trade war that has angered US allies and rattled investors, Trump announced the latest tariffs in separate letters to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum on Saturday. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said she was sure an agreement can be reached. "I've always said that in these cases, what you have to do is keep a cool head to face any problem," Sheinbaum said at an event in the Mexican state of Sonora. "(But) there's something that's never negotiable: the sovereignty of our country," she said. Trump sent similar letters to 23 other trading partners this week, including Canada, Japan and Brazil, setting blanket tariff rates ranging from 20 per cent up to 50 per cent, as well as a 50 per cent tariff on copper. The US president said the 30 per cent rate was "separate from all sectoral tariffs", indicating 50 per cent levies on steel and aluminium imports and a 25 per cent tariff on auto imports would remain. The August 1 deadline gives the targeted countries time to negotiate. Some investors and economists have also noted Trump's pattern of backing off his tariff threats. The spate of letters showed Trump has returned to the aggressive trade posture that he took in April when he announced a slew of reciprocal tariffs against trading partners that sent markets tumbling before the White House delayed implementation. But with the stock market recently hitting record highs and the US economy still resilient, Trump is showing no signs of slowing down his trade war. He promised to use the 90-day delay in April to strike dozens of new trade deals, but has only secured framework agreements with Britain, China and Vietnam. The EU has hoped to reach a comprehensive trade agreement with the US for the 27-country bloc. Trump's letter to the EU included a demand that Europe drop its own tariffs. "The European Union will allow complete, open Market Access to the United States, with no Tariff being charged to us, in an attempt to reduce the large Trade Deficit," he wrote. Von der Leyen said the 30 per cent tariffs "would disrupt essential transatlantic supply chains, to the detriment of businesses, consumers and patients on both sides of the Atlantic". The EU "will take all necessary steps to safeguard EU interests, including the adoption of proportionate countermeasures if required", she said. Mexico's economy ministry said "it was unfair treatment". Mexico's proposed tariff level is lower than Canada's 35 per cent, with both letters citing fentanyl flows even though government data shows the amount of the drug seized at the Mexican border is significantly higher than the Canadian border. "Mexico has been helping me secure the border, BUT, what Mexico has done, is not enough. Mexico still has not stopped the Cartels who are trying to turn all of North America into a Narco-Trafficking Playground," Trump wrote. Mexico sends more than 80 per cent of its total exported goods to the US and free trade with its northern neighbour drove Mexico to become the top US trading partner in 2023. The EU had initially hoped to strike a comprehensive trade agreement but more recently had scaled back its ambitions and shifted toward securing a broader framework deal similar to the one Britain brokered that leaves details to be negotiated. The bloc is under conflicting pressures as powerhouse Germany urged a quick deal to safeguard its industry, while other EU members, such as France, have said EU negotiators should not cave into a one-sided deal on US terms. Bernd Lange, the head of the European Parliament's trade committee, said Brussels should enact countermeasures as soon as Monday. "This is a slap in the face for the negotiations. This is no way to deal with a key trading partner," Lange told Reuters. President Donald Trump has threatened to impose a 30 per cent tariff on imports from Mexico and the European Union starting in August, after weeks of negotiations with the major US trading partners failed to reach a comprehensive trade deal. In an escalation of a trade war that has angered US allies and rattled investors, Trump announced the latest tariffs in separate letters to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum on Saturday. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said she was sure an agreement can be reached. "I've always said that in these cases, what you have to do is keep a cool head to face any problem," Sheinbaum said at an event in the Mexican state of Sonora. "(But) there's something that's never negotiable: the sovereignty of our country," she said. Trump sent similar letters to 23 other trading partners this week, including Canada, Japan and Brazil, setting blanket tariff rates ranging from 20 per cent up to 50 per cent, as well as a 50 per cent tariff on copper. The US president said the 30 per cent rate was "separate from all sectoral tariffs", indicating 50 per cent levies on steel and aluminium imports and a 25 per cent tariff on auto imports would remain. The August 1 deadline gives the targeted countries time to negotiate. Some investors and economists have also noted Trump's pattern of backing off his tariff threats. The spate of letters showed Trump has returned to the aggressive trade posture that he took in April when he announced a slew of reciprocal tariffs against trading partners that sent markets tumbling before the White House delayed implementation. But with the stock market recently hitting record highs and the US economy still resilient, Trump is showing no signs of slowing down his trade war. He promised to use the 90-day delay in April to strike dozens of new trade deals, but has only secured framework agreements with Britain, China and Vietnam. The EU has hoped to reach a comprehensive trade agreement with the US for the 27-country bloc. Trump's letter to the EU included a demand that Europe drop its own tariffs. "The European Union will allow complete, open Market Access to the United States, with no Tariff being charged to us, in an attempt to reduce the large Trade Deficit," he wrote. Von der Leyen said the 30 per cent tariffs "would disrupt essential transatlantic supply chains, to the detriment of businesses, consumers and patients on both sides of the Atlantic". The EU "will take all necessary steps to safeguard EU interests, including the adoption of proportionate countermeasures if required", she said. Mexico's economy ministry said "it was unfair treatment". Mexico's proposed tariff level is lower than Canada's 35 per cent, with both letters citing fentanyl flows even though government data shows the amount of the drug seized at the Mexican border is significantly higher than the Canadian border. "Mexico has been helping me secure the border, BUT, what Mexico has done, is not enough. Mexico still has not stopped the Cartels who are trying to turn all of North America into a Narco-Trafficking Playground," Trump wrote. Mexico sends more than 80 per cent of its total exported goods to the US and free trade with its northern neighbour drove Mexico to become the top US trading partner in 2023. The EU had initially hoped to strike a comprehensive trade agreement but more recently had scaled back its ambitions and shifted toward securing a broader framework deal similar to the one Britain brokered that leaves details to be negotiated. The bloc is under conflicting pressures as powerhouse Germany urged a quick deal to safeguard its industry, while other EU members, such as France, have said EU negotiators should not cave into a one-sided deal on US terms. Bernd Lange, the head of the European Parliament's trade committee, said Brussels should enact countermeasures as soon as Monday. "This is a slap in the face for the negotiations. This is no way to deal with a key trading partner," Lange told Reuters.
The Age
an hour ago
- The Age
Trump intensifies trade war with threat of 30 per cent tariffs on EU, Mexico
Washington/Mexico City: US President Donald Trump has threatened to impose a 30 per cent tariff on imports from Mexico and the European Union starting on August 1, after weeks of negotiations with the major US trading partners failed to reach a comprehensive trade deal. In an escalation of a trade war that has angered US allies and rattled investors, Trump announced the latest tariffs in separate letters to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum that were posted on his Truth Social media site on Saturday. The EU and Mexico, both among the largest US trading partners, responded by calling the tariffs unfair and disruptive while pledging to continue to negotiate with the US for a broader trade deal before the deadline. Sheinbaum said she was sure an agreement could be reached. 'I've always said that in these cases, what you have to do is keep a cool head to face any problem,' Sheinbaum said at an event in the Mexican state of Sonora. 'We're also clear on what we can work with the United States government on, and we're clear on what we can't. And there's something that's never negotiable: the sovereignty of our country.' Loading Trump sent similar letters to 23 other trading partners this week, including Canada, Japan and Brazil, setting blanket tariff rates ranging from 20 per cent up to 50 per cent, as well as a 50 per cent tariff on copper. The US president said the 30 per cent rate was 'separate from all sectoral tariffs', indicating 50 per cent levies on steel and aluminium imports and a 25 per cent tariff on auto imports would remain.
Sydney Morning Herald
an hour ago
- Sydney Morning Herald
Trump intensifies trade war with threat of 30 per cent tariffs on EU, Mexico
Washington/Mexico City: US President Donald Trump has threatened to impose a 30 per cent tariff on imports from Mexico and the European Union starting on August 1, after weeks of negotiations with the major US trading partners failed to reach a comprehensive trade deal. In an escalation of a trade war that has angered US allies and rattled investors, Trump announced the latest tariffs in separate letters to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum that were posted on his Truth Social media site on Saturday. The EU and Mexico, both among the largest US trading partners, responded by calling the tariffs unfair and disruptive while pledging to continue to negotiate with the US for a broader trade deal before the deadline. Sheinbaum said she was sure an agreement could be reached. 'I've always said that in these cases, what you have to do is keep a cool head to face any problem,' Sheinbaum said at an event in the Mexican state of Sonora. 'We're also clear on what we can work with the United States government on, and we're clear on what we can't. And there's something that's never negotiable: the sovereignty of our country.' Loading Trump sent similar letters to 23 other trading partners this week, including Canada, Japan and Brazil, setting blanket tariff rates ranging from 20 per cent up to 50 per cent, as well as a 50 per cent tariff on copper. The US president said the 30 per cent rate was 'separate from all sectoral tariffs', indicating 50 per cent levies on steel and aluminium imports and a 25 per cent tariff on auto imports would remain.
