Women's March Madness Bracket Watch: UConn takes No. 2 seed behind South Carolina
With 7.9 seconds left in the Big Sky tournament, sixth-seeded Montana, which had won only 14 games but had muscled into the championship game, took a lead against rival Montana State. The Grizzlies stifled a Bobcats inbounds play and looked ready to force a contested shot … but Marah Dykstra shot the gap, broke free for a look at the rim, Euro-stepped a help defender, missed, and then instantly put in her own miss just as the buzzer was sounded.MARAH DYKSTRA.FOR THE CHAMPIONSHIP.#All4One | #GoCatsGo pic.twitter.com/gkuo3vhUDz— Montana State WBB (@MSUBobcatsWBB) March 12, 2025
This is what March is all about. There are two sides to every special moment, part of what makes this month so visceral. Every scream of triumph has opposing tears of frustration. It's one of the most gripping and beautiful things in sports.
With the bracket auto-bids nearly complete, let's take one more look at how things are shaping up ahead of Selection Sunday.
The top question heading into this weekend is who will earn the four top seeds. It was a bigger question before the conference tournaments, and we have much more clarity now, but the actual seeding is interesting to examine.
I have UCLA as the top overall seed, and here's why:
Even after losing for the first time all season, the selection committee still ranked UCLA No. 1 overall in its final Top 16 reveal late last month. Though the Bruins lost to their crosstown rival again in the regular season, UCLA finished by winning the Big Ten tournament and exacting revenge on those losses to USC.
If the selection committee didn't drop UCLA after that first loss, I strongly doubt it would be removed from that top position now.
Similarly, South Carolina looks like a lock for the second No. 1 seed after putting together a dominant stretch to close the season. While consideration of head-to-head matchups should have an impact, looking back at that Top 16 reveal, the selection committee still had the Gamecocks ahead of Connecticut despite the Huskies' victory in Columbia a week prior.
Since that reveal when South Carolina was seeded fifth overall, Dawn Staley's team has beaten:
• Ole Miss (projected No. 3 seed)
• Kentucky (projected No. 4 seed)
• Vanderbilt (projected No. 7 seed)
• Oklahoma (projected No. 3 seed)
• Texas (projected No. 1 seed)
The Gamecocks won those five games by an average of 17.2 points — the closest was a 12-point win over Kentucky. South Carolina finished 16-3 in Quad 1 games and played the most Quad 1 games in the country, as well as finishing with the strongest strength of schedule.
Texas and USC, our third and fourth overall teams rounding out the No. 1 seed line, have fairly straightforward cases. Those cases are made even stronger by some of the struggles other teams in contention for No. 1 seeds faced, most notably Notre Dame.
Given how the selection committee has seemed to put less of an emphasis on head-to-head meetings, I doubt there's a path for UConn to wind up a No. 1 seed. Also considering the overlapping back and forth of wins and losses between the top six teams, it makes head-to-head somewhat messier to parse through.
Quad 1 games aren't everything, but they indicate the quality of wins that the selection committee will use this season.
Connecticut finished 6-3 in Quad 1 games, but every team I've projected will be on the No. 1 line has won 10 or more Quad 1 games. If the selection committee had put UConn ahead of South Carolina in that final reveal, which felt warranted, I could see the Huskies claiming a top spot. However, because that didn't happen, it would mark a significant course change if the selection committee goes in a different direction now.
While the top seeds became more clear over the past week, the No. 4 seeds … those keep me up at night.
I feel pretty confident about the vast majority of the bracket, but the No. 4 through No. 6 seed lines are so muddied by the context of their individual seasons.
The top 14 teams, including Kentucky and North Carolina along with the top three seed lines, seem mostly set to me. After that is where it gets murky.
I wound up with Baylor and Alabama as the final two No. 4 seeds.
Let's start with teams I don't think will make the cut for hosting. Maryland, which I'm projecting as a No. 5 seed, has been undersold in value by the NET most of the season, largely because of its margin of defeat. The Terrapins are tied for the fifth-most Quad 1 wins with NC State and TCU. Closing the regular season with a win over Ohio State was significant and had me considering Maryland for the No. 4 seed line.
However, losing badly in its first game of the Big Ten tournament to Michigan seemed like a nail in the coffin for its hosting chances. Maryland was not placed in either of the selection committee's Top 16 reveals.
Tennessee probably has the best resume for teams contending to host. However, losing to Georgia (Quad 4) and their unsteady play the last two weeks of the season made the Lady Vols look undeserving.
Kansas State also has been in similar territory the majority of the season and is a clear standout as the ninth overall team in the NET. But the Wildcats lost four games by double digits in their last 10 games. It can't be overstated that Kansas State has missed star center Ayoka Lee, but the biggest lesson I learned last year is how much value the selection committee puts on a strong close to the season.
Who are the best teams when the bracket is built? Overall resumes matter, of course, but if a team's resume doesn't stack up in the final two weeks or so, it should expect to be seeded in line with what it's recently put on the floor.
That's why Baylor climbs to the No. 4 line. Since back-to-back losses at the end of January, the Bears are 11-2, with their only losses coming in close games to Big 12 champion TCU. While Baylor lacks signature nonconference wins, it has a valid case to be one of the top 16 teams because of the competitiveness it showed during conference play.
Expect Alabama to be the final host team, but the separation between the Crimson Tide and the No. 5 seed line is marginal. Beating LSU before Flau'jae Johnson's injury puts them over the top and keeps them in hosting range. Alabama's second-round loss in the SEC tournament to Florida wasn't great, but it was tight, and it's worth noting that was one of the Crimson Tide's worst 3-point-shooting games on the season.
As for who's in and who's out, I'll have my eye on a couple of bubble spots:
• UNLV lost to San Diego State in the MWC tournament semifinals, adding a wrinkle as a team that had been projected to make the field as an auto-bid. The Rebels have a case as a bubble team, but they likely don't have the juice without a Quad 1 win to make the Big Dance as an at-large team.
• Middle Tennessee is potentially in a similar position to UNLV, splitting the CUSA regular-season title after a blowout loss to Liberty. The Blue Raiders played a decent nonconference schedule but didn't pick up the wins necessary to get off the bubble. If they don't win the CUSA tournament, I'd expect Rick Insell's team to be out.
• Watch Friday's start to Ivy Madness as Princeton and Harvard face off. This is the biggest game remaining among bubble teams. The winner will earn a significant leg up for making the field. Given Richmond and the A-10's bid-stealing, it'll be tougher for the Ivy League to get three bids in the Big Dance.
The Bracket Central series is sponsored by E*Trade from Morgan Stanley.
The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Sponsors have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.
This article originally appeared in The Athletic.
USC Trojans, UCLA Bruins, South Carolina Gamecocks, Connecticut Huskies, Texas Longhorns, Women's College Basketball, Bracket Central, Women's NCAA Tournament
2025 The Athletic Media Company
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Chicago Tribune
30 minutes ago
- Chicago Tribune
Chicago Bears CEO Kevin Warren pays nearly $2.3M for Lake Forest mansion
In a move sure to lend further credence to the view that the Chicago Bears will build a new stadium in Arlington Heights, Kevin Warren, the team's president and CEO, in May paid $2.25 million for a five-bedroom, 8,725-square-foot shingle-style mansion in Lake Forest. Warren, 61, became the Bears' president and CEO in January 2023 after serving for more than three years as the commissioner of the Rosemont-based Big Ten conference. During his time overseeing the Big Ten, Warren first rented a 21st-floor condo in a building on Lake Shore Drive in Streeterville, and then in 2023, he and his wife, Greta, paid $1.75 million for a three-bedroom, 2,547-square-foot condominium on the 13th floor of the same high-rise. Since June 2021, the Bears have been known to be considering locations for a new stadium, including building a new arena in Arlington Heights on the 326-acre site of the former Arlington Park racetrack — land that the team purchased in 2023. Warren soon emerged as an enthusiastic proponent of the idea of a new stadium on Chicago's lakefront. In April, Warren told reporters that the team had shifted from solely pursuing building a new stadium downtown to considering both downtown and Arlington Heights. 'The focus now is both downtown and Arlington Heights,' Warren said in April. 'One thing I have said before is that these are not linear processes or projects. They take time.' Then, in May, the Tribune broke the news that the team's focus had moved once again, this time to Arlington Heights exclusively. Warren's decision to buy a suburban home is sure to spark speculation that the team now is near-certain to build in Arlington Heights, although Warren's new house also is close to the Bears' Halas Hall headquarters and training complex in Lake Forest. The house Warren purchased has a wraparound deck, a new cedar shake roof, a great room with a 19-foot alder wood ceiling and a Lannon stone fireplace, and a kitchen with high-end appliances, a center island and a breakfast bar. Other features include a private office with a fireplace and and a first-floor primary bedroom suite with a bathroom that has dual vanities and heated stone floors. Downstairs, the lower level has a family room opening to a stone patio, a guest bedroom suite and an exercise room. With Warren now having purchased a place in the northern suburbs, he joins several of his colleagues, including Bears general manager Ryan Poles, who paid $2.077 million in 2023 for a 5,200-square-foot house in Lincolnshire. Recently hired head coach Ben Johnson is not known to have bought a house here yet. The sellers lost money on the Lake Forest mansion. They paid $2.39 million for it in 2015, and they first listed it in 2023 for $2.495 million. They cut their asking price in April 2024 to $2.4 million, and they signed a deal in April with Warren, who closed on the purchase in May through an opaque land trust that masks his identity. The mansion had a $35,839 property tax bill in the 2024 tax year. It also has $295-a-month homeowners association dues. Real estate agent Annie Royster Lenzke, who represented Warren in his purchase, did not respond to a request for comment. Her colleague Dawn McKenna also did not respond to a request for comment.
USA Today
an hour ago
- USA Today
Penn State 5-star RB commit seemingly unswayed by UCLA visit
Penn State 5-star RB commit seemingly unswayed by UCLA visit Penn State seemingly received some good news on the recruiting front on Tuesday. Kemon Spell, a 5-star running back and the top-ranked player at his position in the class of 2027 according to the 247Sports composite rankings, was the first to commit to Penn State's 2027 class. As Pennsylvania's top prospect, Spell's recruitment has drawn attention from other programs, keeping fans eager for updates. Despite being committed to the Nittany Lions, Spell visited UCLA over the weekend. According to Rivals reporter Tracy McDannald, Spell came away impressed, saying 'it just took two days for them to get my heart." Despite speculation that the Bruins could flip his commitment, Spell made two posts on X on Tuesday seemingly confirming his pledge to Penn State. In response to a pair of Nittany Lion fan accounts claiming Spell will remain a Nittany Lion, he replied with the team's signature "We Are" slogan. There was previously speculation Spell would follow Ja'Juan Seider to Notre Dame after the running backs coach was hired away in February, but Spell ended those rumors when he claimed to be shutting down his commitment in an interview with Happy Valley United on March 29. Spell, a McKeesport, Pennsylvania, native, was in Happy Valley recently, attending Nittany Lions Camp to open the month. Though he's shown interest in other programs, Penn State still holds a commitment from one of the top players in the cycle.
Yahoo
3 hours ago
- Yahoo
Pacers land Cedric Coward in NBA mock draft
Pacers land Cedric Coward in NBA mock draft originally appeared on Athlon Sports. The Indiana Pacers are three wins away from an NBA Championship. A team headlined by Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam has been successful thanks to the depth of the team, not their superstars. Advertisement Depth can be costly, though. The Pacers are paying $169 million in salary this season, and are already committed to $167.9 million for next year, and that's before a potential extension of Myles Turner. The Pacers have done a great job at drafting NBA-ready players to keep bench costs relatively low, and one prospect stands out as a draft riser who could continue to contribute. Tankathon's NBA Mock Draft has the Pacers landing Washington State wing Cedric Coward with the No. 23 overall pick. Coward started the draft process ranked outside of the first round, but has been a quick draft riser over the past few months. Coward began his collegiate career at Division III Willamette University, averaging 19.4 points and 12.0 rebounds per game. Coward then transferred to Eastern Washington. In his first season with the Eagles, Coward came off the bench and played a key role, averaging 7.3 points and 5.6 rebounds per game. In his second season with Eastern Washington, he earned All-Big Sky honors, averaging 15.4 points and 6.7 rebounds per game. Coward then transferred to Washington State, where he played just six games this past season due to a torn labrum, which required surgery. Coward looked stellar in his short sample with the Cougars, averaging 17.7 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 3.7 assists per game. Advertisement One of the most coveted archetypes in the modern NBA is the "3-and-D" player. Coward fits that mold to a T. Coward has a beautifully smooth shooting stroke, and he has touch from all over the floor. He shows comfort shooting off the catch, on the move, and as a pull-up shooter. In his three seasons of Division I basketball, Coward knocked down 38.8 percent of his three-point attempts and 83.2 percent of his free throws. Physically, Coward's size is an NBA dream. Listed at 6-foot-6, Coward has a 7-foot-2 wingspan and an 8-foot-10 standing reach. Cedric had among the top ten largest hands at the NBA combine. Coward possesses the arms of a much larger man, and it makes him very effective as a defender. Coward is a defensive playmaker, with a career steal percentage of 1.9 percent and a block rate of 3.7 percent in Division I. In his six-game season with Washington State, Coward averaged 1.7 blocks per game, with a block rate of 5.3 percent. Advertisement He's not a lead guard by any means. He has some ability with the ball in his hands, but he doesn't have elite burst and struggles to create separation against high-level defenses or aggressive help schemes. As a connector, though, Coward thrives. Playing within the flow of the offense is the name of the game for Coward. He runs well in transition, and that's truly where his playmaking ability shines. He has impeccable vision and timing as a playmaker on the fast break, which would work wonders for Rick Carlisle's Pacers team. Coward is a dream roleplayer. He brings an unselfish, team-first mindset paired with ancillary skills, great instincts, and insane genetics. Coward can step right in and make an impact, especially on a team like the Pacers that has had so much success with plug-and-play contributors. For the Pacers specifically, he brings more size and length on the wing than Aaron Nesmith, Ben Sheppard, and Andrew Nembhard do. His shot will have no problem translating to the NBA, and he can shoot well with volume. Haliburton and Siakam should generate plenty of open looks for Coward. Advertisement There's also a world, given his wingspan, that allows him to play bigger than he is, that Carlisle could deploy Coward as a four or perhaps even a small-ball five in a super-spread offense. Related: Myles Turner Reveals How Indiana Pacers Failed to Play Their Own Game Against OKC Thunder Related: Indiana Pacers Get Massive NBA Free Agency Update This story was originally reported by Athlon Sports on Jun 10, 2025, where it first appeared.
