logo
Thailand's Hotel Market in 2025: Fewer Deals

Thailand's Hotel Market in 2025: Fewer Deals

Skift11-05-2025

A new forecast from hotel broker JLL hits a note of optimism at a time when some critics worry Thai tourism is hitting the skids. Expect people to do fewer hotel deals in Thailand this year, but for those deals to be bigger.
Thailand's hotel investment market is returning to normal after last year's post-pandemic surge. Hotel brokerage JLL projects that total deal volume will reach 13 billion Thai baht ($385 million) in 2025 — about 40% below 2024's record from a one-time rush of delayed deals.
A JLL report issued Thursday said investors are now focused on fewer but larger acquisitions.
The average deal size is expected to reach THB1.8 billion ($53.2 million) in 2025. That would be 80% higher than the THB1 billion ($29.5 million) 10-year average.
JLL believes that single-asset transactions will likely remain the norm, following notable deals like the 273-room Hyatt Regency Bangkok Sukhumvit, which in 2024 became Thailand's largest-ever single hotel transaction.
Key Drivers of Hotel Investing
There are growing concerns that Thailand's tourism recovery may be losing steam. Earlier this month, the Tourism Authority of Thailand signaled it may lower its 2025 forecast for international arrivals to 35 million, still short of the 2019 peak of roughly 40 million.
Yet when it comes to hotel investing, Thailand remains a relatively strong market. JLL remains optimistic that Thailand will benefit from pent-up demand from group travelers and mass tourism, especially from markets like Australia.
It points to several other key drivers:
Interest rates holding steady or dropping should help with deal flow. Thailand's anticipated lower interest rates in 2025, combined with continued positive sentiment in the tourism sector, should support further investment, albeit in a more focused and strategic manner than the investment boom of 2024, JLL believes.
"In an inflationary and high-interest rate environment, Thailand has stood out as one of the few Asian countries offering a positive yield spread over borrowing costs," the report notes.
Luxury demand drives investment growth. For 2025, upper-tier hotels are expected to see stabilized occupancy rates with gradual growth in average daily rates.
Economy to mid-tier hotels may see both rising average daily rate and occupancy levels, potentially narrowing the performance gap with upscale properties, if inbound tourism recovers as hoped.
Geographical diversification expected. While the capital city, along with Phuket and Samui, will remain prime investment destinations, the report anticipates interest spreading to other markets within Thailand this year. The Thai government has signaled interest in supporting the development of potential new tourism hotspots, similar to how Mexico invented Cancun as a resort city.
That said, Bangkok will continue to dominate the landscape, accounting for nearly 60% of national transaction volume this year.
Financing Landscape Evolves
Greater access to capital. More Thai hotel deals involve leasing because of increased access to non-traditional forms of lending. A notable shift in 2024 was investors' increased willingness to consider leasehold properties, moving away from the pre-pandemic focus almost exclusively on freehold opportunities, partly thanks to the new types of financing available from next-gen firms.
Non-bank financial institutions, including leasing companies and specialized lenders, are gaining market share by providing more flexible financing solutions for smaller or unique projects, albeit at higher interest rates, JLL said.
Sustainable financing options continue to become more common. Major Thai banks and international lenders now offer so-called green loans specifically for financing environmentally friendly hotel projects, as well as sustainability-linked loans with interest rates tied to predetermined sustainability performance targets. JLL believes the new financing could help attract new players to the market.

Orange background

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Comments

No comments yet...

Related Articles

Is QL Resources Berhad (KLSE:QL) Expensive For A Reason? A Look At Its Intrinsic Value
Is QL Resources Berhad (KLSE:QL) Expensive For A Reason? A Look At Its Intrinsic Value

Yahoo

timean hour ago

  • Yahoo

Is QL Resources Berhad (KLSE:QL) Expensive For A Reason? A Look At Its Intrinsic Value

The projected fair value for QL Resources Berhad is RM3.41 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Current share price of RM4.55 suggests QL Resources Berhad is potentially 34% overvalued The RM4.80 analyst price target for QL is 41% more than our estimate of fair value Does the June share price for QL Resources Berhad (KLSE:QL) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example! We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model. AI is about to change healthcare. These 20 stocks are working on everything from early diagnostics to drug discovery. The best part - they are all under $10bn in marketcap - there is still time to get in early. We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years. Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate: 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 Levered FCF (MYR, Millions) RM273.1m RM305.7m RM430.6m RM666.7m RM703.6m RM738.6m RM772.4m RM805.6m RM838.6m RM871.8m Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x1 Analyst x2 Analyst x2 Analyst x2 Est @ 5.55% Est @ 4.97% Est @ 4.57% Est @ 4.29% Est @ 4.10% Est @ 3.96% Present Value (MYR, Millions) Discounted @ 8.4% RM252 RM260 RM338 RM483 RM470 RM456 RM440 RM423 RM406 RM390 ("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = RM3.9b The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (3.6%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 8.4%. Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = RM872m× (1 + 3.6%) ÷ (8.4%– 3.6%) = RM19b Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= RM19b÷ ( 1 + 8.4%)10= RM8.5b The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is RM12b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of RM4.6, the company appears reasonably expensive at the time of writing. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind. We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at QL Resources Berhad as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.4%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business. See our latest analysis for QL Resources Berhad Strength Debt is not viewed as a risk. Weakness Earnings growth over the past year underperformed the Food industry. Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Food market. Expensive based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value. Opportunity Annual revenue is forecast to grow faster than the Malaysian market. Threat Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the Malaysian market. Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. Can we work out why the company is trading at a premium to intrinsic value? For QL Resources Berhad, we've put together three essential items you should further research: Financial Health: Does QL have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk. Future Earnings: How does QL's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing! PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Malaysian stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data

Returns On Capital Signal Tricky Times Ahead For Homeritz Corporation Berhad (KLSE:HOMERIZ)
Returns On Capital Signal Tricky Times Ahead For Homeritz Corporation Berhad (KLSE:HOMERIZ)

Yahoo

timean hour ago

  • Yahoo

Returns On Capital Signal Tricky Times Ahead For Homeritz Corporation Berhad (KLSE:HOMERIZ)

What trends should we look for it we want to identify stocks that can multiply in value over the long term? In a perfect world, we'd like to see a company investing more capital into its business and ideally the returns earned from that capital are also increasing. Basically this means that a company has profitable initiatives that it can continue to reinvest in, which is a trait of a compounding machine. In light of that, when we looked at Homeritz Corporation Berhad (KLSE:HOMERIZ) and its ROCE trend, we weren't exactly thrilled. AI is about to change healthcare. These 20 stocks are working on everything from early diagnostics to drug discovery. The best part - they are all under $10bn in marketcap - there is still time to get in early. For those that aren't sure what ROCE is, it measures the amount of pre-tax profits a company can generate from the capital employed in its business. Analysts use this formula to calculate it for Homeritz Corporation Berhad: Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities) 0.12 = RM36m ÷ (RM331m - RM29m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to February 2025). Therefore, Homeritz Corporation Berhad has an ROCE of 12%. In absolute terms, that's a satisfactory return, but compared to the Consumer Durables industry average of 4.4% it's much better. Check out our latest analysis for Homeritz Corporation Berhad Above you can see how the current ROCE for Homeritz Corporation Berhad compares to its prior returns on capital, but there's only so much you can tell from the past. If you're interested, you can view the analysts predictions in our free analyst report for Homeritz Corporation Berhad . In terms of Homeritz Corporation Berhad's historical ROCE movements, the trend isn't fantastic. Around five years ago the returns on capital were 17%, but since then they've fallen to 12%. However, given capital employed and revenue have both increased it appears that the business is currently pursuing growth, at the consequence of short term returns. And if the increased capital generates additional returns, the business, and thus shareholders, will benefit in the long run. In summary, despite lower returns in the short term, we're encouraged to see that Homeritz Corporation Berhad is reinvesting for growth and has higher sales as a result. And the stock has followed suit returning a meaningful 56% to shareholders over the last five years. So should these growth trends continue, we'd be optimistic on the stock going forward. If you want to continue researching Homeritz Corporation Berhad, you might be interested to know about the 2 warning signs that our analysis has discovered. While Homeritz Corporation Berhad isn't earning the highest return, check out this free list of companies that are earning high returns on equity with solid balance sheets. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

A $400 Million Gamble Created The Maldives' Wildest Resort
A $400 Million Gamble Created The Maldives' Wildest Resort

Forbes

time2 hours ago

  • Forbes

A $400 Million Gamble Created The Maldives' Wildest Resort

Speeding around the island in a jet car is one of many experiences available to guests at Siyam World. Sun Siyam Maldivian islands are known for quiet luxury: spa treatments, perhaps a snorkel or two and barefoot candlelight dinners on the beach. A formula that has worked for couples and those seeking pure relaxation. But one Maldivian entrepreneur sensed a shift in what tourists coming to his country wanted. Ahmed Siyam Mohamed began his career 35 years ago as a local tour guide. Over the past decades, he built a six-resort empire. Along the way he noticed many travelers wanting more than silence and a long list of spa treatments: They all craved things to do. So he took a big financial gamble to build Siyam World. An initial $350 million investment constructed the resort, followed by at least another $50 million for upgrades and to add more experiences since its opening four years ago. The resort now redefines what luxury in the Maldives means. 'Luxury in our resort means freedom. Freedom of movement, of experience and of joy," says Sara Siyam, marketing director at Siyam World and the entrepreneur's daughter. "There is no rule that luxury has to be quiet." Siyam World opened exactly as the new experience-based travel trend started to emerge. Tourists now look for destinations with engaging activities and individual experiences. This is the demand that Sara's father had anticipated. Like kids on recess—adults aren't leaving the fun to the youngest anymore at Siyam World's water park. Siyam World Industry analysts see the global marketplace for travel experiences offering a more than $1 trillion opportunity, with half of Gen Z indicating they prefer to invest in experiences. They'd rather cut costs on flights or accommodations and spend it on diving trips, cooking classes or sports camps at their destination. To compare: only a third of boomers say the same. This shift goes even deeper than demographics. TripAdvisor's latest Trendcast industry report analyzed billions of reviews and booking data to discover that yes, adults still want relaxation, but now they also crave an element of surprise and joy. They're not willing to leave the fun to the kids anymore. James Bond cruised around in a Moke, now guests at Siyam World can do the same in an electric version. Siyam World "At our core we want to give our guests the experiences they want on their holiday. And we deliver that, plus more, at the highest possible level," says Sara. It's a philosophy that's noticeable everywhere on the island, in lavish, one-of-a-kind activities. As Sara says, "Boredom simply isn't an option here." Guests can rent retro-styled electric mini Mokes to cruise around the 54-hectare island. Sara and her husband, resort manager Ausy Waseem, came up with this idea while watching "Live and Let Die", where James Bond zips around a fictional Caribbean island in a similar Moke. The $25,000 price tag per vehicle meant it took a bit of convincing, but, as Sara says, 'Thankfully my father was on board when he saw just how cool they look in that movie scene." Siyam World claims several other ambitious firsts for the Maldives. It's the only island where guests can horseback ride—and not on just any horses, but Marwaris from Rajasthan, a rare breed known for its distinctive curved ears and exceptional loyalty to humans. Caring for them required building an on-island veterinary hospital, which made adding a petting zoo with goats, rabbits, sheep and many different kinds of exotic parrots a natural next step. Siyam World's electric go-kart track draws kids and adults alike. Siyam World Many Maldivian islands have stray cats left behind by previous inhabitants. While most resorts choose to remove them, Siyam World decided to turn this challenge into a unique experience for guests. "Our vet provided the necessary treatments, and now we see how much our guests, especially childreapeciate their presence," says Sara. In fact, a cat café is in the works, where cappuccinos and cake will come with a side of cuddly cat. Siyam World's water park is the largest in the Maldives. Siyam World The water sports at Siyam World feature toys most guests would otherwise never encounter—and most hotel owners would probably balk at: too costly, too risky, and with questionable ROI. There's the CudaJet, an underwater backpack with jets that lets freedivers fly through the water. Then the Seabreacher, a one-man submarine that dives and leaps over waves. And Jet Cars—speedboats styled to look like sports cars, perfect for anyone who's dreamed of driving a Ferrari across the Indian Ocean. This no-expenses-spared philosophy extends beyond water toys to other activities, particularly sports like soccer. Local legend Anwar Abdul Gani runs daily training sessions on regulation-sized fields. Youth camps? Hosted by Premier League stars like Rio Ferdinand and Francesco Totti, flown in specifically for the occasion. Accommodations follow suit with every overwater villa sporting a private water slide and pool—luxuries typically reserved for the top-tier rooms. Ausy Waseem and Sara Siyam are in charge of experiences at Siyam World. The pink eMoke was their idea. Sun Siyam "We decided to give all guests the Maldivian holiday experience they've seen on social media, regardless of budget," explains Sara. With 16 distinct pricing categories and nearly 500 rooms, Siyam World caters to a broad range of tourists, from solo travelers to honeymooners, groups, and multi-generational families. Their entry-level overwater villas start at $700 per night, while four-bedroom beach residences (the highest category) begin at $4,000. Guests have been rewarding this vision with their praise and loyalty. Siyam World just got tenth place in TripAdvisor's Travelers' Choice Awards. It is the only Maldivian resort to make the list. It also claimed No. 2 on the Best All-Inclusive Hotel list globally and No. 1 in Asia, placing it in the top 1% of current TripAdvisor listings worldwide. 'Siyam World was an entirely new concept in the Maldives—one that had never been tried before,' says Sara. 'But the massive investment paid off.' While most resorts are still grappling with how experience-driven travel is reshaping the industry, Siyam World has delivered on all fronts. A success of the resort may signal that the future of travel is wilder, more unexpected and fun than we ever imagined. As Ian Schrager, founder of the legendary nightclub Studio 54, once told me: 'We all like to have fun when we can. It's been like that for 5,000 years, and I don't think it will ever change.' Guests can book horse riding lessons on beautiful Marwari horses. Siyam World Getting There: How To Get To The Maldives There are direct flights to Malé from major hubs such as Doha, Dubai, or Singapore. From Malé International Airport, Siyam World is a 40-minute seaplane ride away ($475 per adult; included in stays seven nights or longer). Best Time To Visit The Maldives The best time to visit the Maldives is during the dry season from November to April. During this time there is little precipitation and temperatures range from the high 70s to the mid-80s.

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into the world of global news and events? Download our app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store