Iraq after the Global Coalition: Between sovereignty and strategic risk

Shafaq News

a day ago

Shafaq News
The US-led Global Coalition's withdrawal from Iraq has officially begun, with troops departing from Ain al-Assad airbase in western al-Anbar. Ain al-Assad, Iraq's second-largest air installation, has long hosted both Iraqi and coalition forces under Iraq's al-Jazeera and al-Badiya Operations Command.
Its evacuation marks the first visible step in a two-stage drawdown, which will continue through September 2026. The plan envisages phased departures from Baghdad, followed by the retention of fewer than 500 US personnel in Erbil before their redeployment to Kuwait.
For Baghdad, the process represents a symbolic end to more than two decades of foreign troop deployments. Yet it also exposes the delicate balance between consolidating sovereignty and confronting security gaps that remain unresolved.
A Political Achievement in the Government's Eyes
Spokesman for the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, Sabah al-Naaman, described the withdrawal as 'one of the government's most significant achievements.' He credited 'intensive political efforts and the Prime Minister's determination' alongside tangible improvements in Iraq's security apparatus — from modernizing its arsenal to enhancing intelligence capabilities.
In his view, the departure reflects confidence that Iraqi forces can now independently secure the country and prevent the resurgence of terrorism.
'The growing capabilities of our security forces, along with the government's ongoing efforts to develop the military and security system with the latest weaponry and technical technologies, in addition to enhancing the efficiency of the intelligence services, are all factors that enable Iraq to fully take control of the security file and deter any threat to the country's security,' he told Shafaq News.
Legal Framework and Political Reassurances
Echoing the government's message, lawmaker Imran al-Karkoushi, of the Iran-backed State of Law Coalition, insisted the redeployment 'stems from bilateral security agreements and is not a result of external pressure or regional tensions.'
He pointed to the 2008 US–Iraq Strategic Framework Agreement (SFA) as the 'legal basis guiding the move.' Unlike earlier troop-specific arrangements, the SFA lays out the broader partnership between Baghdad and Washington, covering security cooperation, economic development, cultural exchange, and respect for Iraqi sovereignty.
By grounding the withdrawal in this framework, al-Karkoushi sought to counter arguments that the decision is linked to US–Iran tensions or regional escalations. Instead, 'it is a contractual step within Iraq's sovereign right to shape its foreign partnerships.'
Parliamentary Skepticism: Airspace and Air Defenses
Other lawmakers voiced sharper concerns. Independent MP Haitham al-Zarkani criticized the Global Coalition for its 'failure' to protect Iraq's skies, citing repeated airspace violations and cross-border strikes carried out from Iraqi territory without coalition intervention.
'Iraqi airspace has been used to carry out attacks on neighboring countries without any response from the Coalition, and the United States has deliberately refrained from providing Iraq with advanced air defense systems, which makes its withdrawal or continued presence have no real effect,' he explained to Shafaq News.
Warns of Premature Timing
Security expert Ali al-Maamari warned that the decision to withdraw from Ain al-Assad and the Victoria base near Baghdad airport was based on assessments of readiness that he considers premature.
While Iraqi forces have accumulated significant combat experience on the ground, he argued that they still lack 'effective air defense systems and advanced radar technologies capable of intercepting missiles and hostile aircraft.'
From Domestic to Regional Threats
Security analyst Adnan al-Kinani stressed that Iraq's security challenges no longer stem primarily from ISIS. 'ISIS as an organization is largely dismantled, but external threats — such as potential Turkish incursions or engineered Iraq–Syria tensions — now pose the real danger,' he told Shafaq News.
He also cautioned that Iraq risks becoming a theater for broader rivalries: 'The United States and Israel may attempt to use Iraqi territory as a platform for pressuring or attacking Iran, which poses a strategic risk to national sovereignty.'
For al-Kinani, the coalition's departure does not eliminate risk but shifts it outward — to borders, neighbors, and the regional balance of power.
Intelligence Gaps and Regional Competition
Security expert Saif Raad emphasized another vulnerability: the coalition's departure leaves Iraq at risk of losing advanced intelligence support, including satellite imagery and aerial reconnaissance. 'This comes at a time of ongoing unrest in Syria and renewed ISIS activity in al-Hol camp,' he said, referring to the sprawling detention site in northeast Syria that continues to harbor thousands of ISIS-linked individuals.
Raad also noted that Iran appears poised to fill part of the vacuum. A recent Baghdad–Tehran security agreement, signed as the US exit timetable was being finalized, signals Tehran's intent to expand its role in training and intelligence. For Iraq, this creates a dilemma: trading one external dependency for another risks limiting its freedom of maneuver in the long run.
Between Sovereignty and Exposure
The debate reflects two competing lenses. For the government and its allies, the withdrawal is a sign of sovereign maturity, anchored in international agreements and political determination. For skeptical lawmakers and experts, the risks lie in capability gaps and the shifting nature of threats — from insurgency to regional power competition.
As the countdown to September 2026 accelerates, the central question remains: can Iraq protect its fragile security gains while resisting entanglement in wider regional conflicts?