What's going on with Kyle Tucker? Examining slump of Cubs star

New York Times

2 days ago

Both the Cubs' offense as a whole and Kyle Tucker individually were among the best in baseball for the first few months of the season. Now, as the Cubs' offense has struggled to live up to the incredible early standard it set, the spotlight has fallen on Chicago's struggling star.
July was markedly different from the early part of the season. And while the dip wasn't awful, it didn't meet expectations for the offense or Tucker. Since July 1, Tucker has a 91 Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) — a stat that measures offensive production, with 100 being league average — with just one home run and three doubles.
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'Not great,' Tucker said when asked to assess his recent stretch. 'Just doing the best I can. Gotta grind through it. Try and figure it out and turn it around.'
There has been speculation that the finger injury Tucker sustained on June 1 while sliding into second base may still be impacting him. Tucker downplayed the magnitude when asked before Wednesday's victory over the Cincinnati Reds, which was a rest day for him.
'I mean, it's fine,' the always understated Tucker said. 'I gotta do my job regardless of how I feel. I'll just continue that the best I can.'
Team president Jed Hoyer didn't discount the idea.
'I don't know how much is pain, discomfort, how much is bad habits you got into to compensate for something, and just how much is a slump,' Hoyer said. 'There's no question it's had some impact on him.'
That Tucker had his best month in June leads one to believe this isn't solely due to the original finger injury. Tucker had a 174 wRC+ with nine doubles and five home runs (.267 ISO) in June. That should give pause to anyone who believes the finger is the main culprit.
Manager Craig Counsell has been adamant that this is just a temporary slump for Tucker.
'There's a lot of good things happening there, it's just he's missing some pitches he feels like he should hit,' Counsell said. 'That's hitting sometimes. You miss a pitch you should hit, a pitcher makes a good pitch and you're walking back to the dugout. That's the fine line of hitting in the big leagues.'
A few things are going on with Tucker that suggest things aren't right, but also that he's probably going to snap out of it.
The above shows a recent drop in power (ISO), along with a rise in ground balls. Hitting coaches love to say that slug is in the air. Tucker just isn't driving the ball on a line at the moment. Not at the standard he's set for himself, at least.
'I normally hit the ball in the air a lot, and I hit it pretty hard when I do,' Tucker said. 'Obviously haven't been doing that a lot. I have a handful of extra-base hits the last month-and-a-half or whatever. Some of those at-bats, I've hit some hard singles just right at the center fielder, right at the right fielder. Didn't get in the gap or down the line.'
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The chart also shows that Tucker's hard contact has increased in recent weeks. That has come at the same time the ball has been on the ground more than at almost any other point this season. The combination of fouling the ball off and putting it on the ground can often indicate a timing issue.
That Tucker isn't chasing at all during this rough patch matters a lot. His walk rate in July was 20.6 percent, leading to a .380 on-base percentage. For a down month, that's incredible. It shows that Tucker can still be productive even if he's not hitting for power. And it shows that his swing decisions remain strong.
'If I was chasing balls in the dirt or above my head all the time, then it's a different story,' Tucker said. 'It's just a matter of making solid contact forward. That's kind of where I'm at. At times, you're going to foul off pitches or swing through pitches you think you should hit. That's kind of where it's been. I need to figure out how to put those in play and hit them harder.'
The pillars of hitting are not chasing, not swinging and missing, and hitting the ball hard in the air. Tucker is still doing almost all those things, but his hard contact just hasn't been in the air enough. If this is what a slump looks like for Tucker, then it just goes to show how talented he is.
But to be the scary offense the Cubs were at the outset, they'll need Tucker at his best. The smart bet is that things will turn.
'That's how baseball goes sometimes,' Tucker said. 'Just try to ride the wave as best you can and try to turn it around as fast as possible.'
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