New report sheds more light on how tariffs could impact Utah — but uncertainty still abounds

Yahoo

09-05-2025

Traffic moves along I-15 near neighborhoods in North Salt Lake on Wednesday, January 3, 2024. (Photo by Spenser Heaps for Utah News Dispatch)
A new report released Thursday details the latest numbers illustrating the significant impact international trade had on Utah's economy in 2024 — and also lays out the possible ramifications of President Donald Trump's trade wars. In short, there's plenty to be uncertain about — and uncertainty itself can cause economic disruptions.
'What do tariffs mean to Utah?' the report by the University of Utah's Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute said. 'The current upheaval in U.S. trade policy creates greater economic uncertainty and elevates the risk of a recession.'
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The impacts could reach far and wide.
'Unsure about the cost and availability of inputs, businesses freeze or delay hiring, purchasing, and investment decisions,' the report said. 'With inflation still above the Federal Reserve's target rate of 2.0%, persistent tariffs could lead to stagflation, where the economy is shrinking or not growing but prices rise.'
They could also further aggravate Utah's already expensive and strained housing market at a time when the price of homes is near record highs, at roughly $550,000 for a median-priced single family home.
'Tariffs could also adversely affect Utah's housing market in the short term,' the report said. 'In addition to the indirect macro impacts on household balance sheets and interest rates, higher prices for imported lumber and other materials would lead to higher home prices in a state already struggling with housing affordability.'
As of the fourth quarter of 2024, Utah's housing market ranked as the ninth most expensive in the country when it came to the median sales price of a single-family home. Only areas including Oregon, New York, Colorado, Washington, Massachusetts, Washington D.C., California and Hawaii ranked higher.
According to a World Trade Center Utah survey of Utah businesses across all of the state's major sectors in late January and early February gauging their responses to proposed tariffs, 71% said they planned to raise prices for buyers of their goods, the report said. About 56% said they would reduce revenue, 29% said they would freeze planned investments, and many respondents chose more than one of those actions.
The report also included a quote from the investment research firm Alpine Macro: 'Uncertainty over the endpoint of U.S. trade policy could be as damaging as the tariffs themselves.'
While unpacking U.S. trade policy considerations under Trump, the report also notes that proposed tariffs on a wide variety of imported goods remain 'negotiable,' and included a list of proposals that had been contemplated as of April 10, including but not limited to:
10% universal tariff on all countries
Up to 125% tariff on Chinese goods
25% tariff on non-USMCA compliant goods from Canada and Mexico
25% tariff on goods imported from any country that imports Venezuelan oil
25% tariffs on aluminum and steel
25% tariffs on autos and auto parts
'The ultimate impact on the overall U.S. effective tariff rate remains to be seen but could range from 11.5% to 25.0%, up from about 3.0% in January 2025,' the report said.
'Everybody agrees it's going to cause pain': Utah governor on tariffs, possible recession
However, it added: 'The uncertainty of current U.S. trade policy makes it difficult to estimate the impact of the new rounds of tariffs.'
'Analysts can, however, surmise the new administration's economic policy and the motivation for tariff increases, as well as summarize the economic theory that supports free trade and discourages barriers to trade, including tariffs,' the report said.
To that end, the report said the Trump administration 'appears to be focused on four major economic goals,' including:
Trade deficit: Reducing the U.S. trade deficit and rebalancing global trade. The report noted that the U.S. trade imbalance in 2024 tallied $918 billion.
Budget deficit: Lowering U.S. federal fiscal deficits. 'In federal fiscal year 2024, the federal government collected $4.9 trillion in revenues and spent $6.8 trillion in expenditures for a $1.9 trillion deficit,' the report said. 'The accumulated U.S. debt stands at $36.5 trillion.'
Labor: Reversing the decadeslong decline in labor's share of income. 'Employee compensation as a share of national income fell from 67.1% in 1980 to 62.0% in 2024,' the report said.
Taxes: Making permanent the tax cuts from the Tax Cut and Jobs Act in 2017 from the first Trump administration and enacting other tax reductions. The Trump administration is also considering taxes including taxes on tips, overtime, auto loan payments and more.
'The implementation of these policies is under way and includes short-term disruptions with the hope of long-term benefits,' the report said.
Utah's international imports and exports continue to be a significant economic driver, according to the report.
Last year, Utah imported $21.9 billion worth of goods from 154 countries while it exported $18.2 billion in goods to 201 countries, representing a goods trade deficit of $3.7 billion.
Three countries accounted for the lion's share (55.7%) of Utah's imports. 'Mexico provided $4.8 billion of goods (nearly $2.0 billion of which was unwrought gold), Canada provided $4.7 billion (roughly $1.5 billion of which was gold), and China sent almost $2.7 billion,' the report said.
Utah's 2024 exports supported an estimated $8 billion in the state's gross domestic product, $3.9 billion of earnings, $15.9 billion of gross output, and 70,171 jobs. 'These impacts represent 2.6% of GDP, 2.3% of earnings, 3.0% of output, and 2.9% of total employment in Utah,' according to the report.
Of the countries sending the most goods to Utah, Mexico is the largest, followed closely by Canada and China, according to the report.
'The three accounted for 56% of the value of Utah's imports in 2024, with Mexico alone supplying 22%,' the report said.
Over the past decade, from 2014 to 2024, Utah's exports have increased by 12%, according to the report. That's compared with a national growth of 15.8%, adjusted for inflation.
Natalie Gochnour, director of the Kem C. Gardner Institute, said in a prepared statement issued Thursday alongside the report that its findings show 'Utah consistently punches above its weight in international trade, outperforming many peer states.'
'This research underscores how critical exports are in maintaining a diverse and robust economy in the state, creating opportunities and strengthening our economic foundation,' she said.
Read the entire report here:
IntTrade-May-2025
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