2025 NBA Finals odds, predictions: Best bets for Pacers vs. Thunder, Game 1
The 2025 NBA Finals begin Thursday night, and oddsmakers don't see it as much of a series.
The Oklahoma City Thunder opened as high as -800 favorites (now down to -700 at BetMGM), with the Indiana Pacers as +525 underdogs. Since 1969, there have been 16 NBA Finals where the series underdog had +250 or worse odds and only the 2004 Detroit Pistons (+500 vs. Los Angeles Lakers) won the series outright, according to Sports Odds History.
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The Thunder went 68-14 in the regular season en route to the No. 1 overall seed in the Western Conference and also were a cash cow for bettors, compiling a 55-23-4 mark against the spread — the best ATS mark for any team in the past 35 seasons. Oklahoma has struggled ATS in the postseason, though, going just 7-9 ATS.
The Pacers have been one of the NBA's best teams since the calendar flipped to Jan. 1 and beat the Milwaukee Bucks as a favorite before defeating the Cleveland Cavaliers and New York Knicks as series underdogs to make it to their first Finals since 2000.
Yahoo Sports asked handicappers Michael Fiddle, Jason Logan and Jon Metler for their thoughts on the series and Game 1 best bets:
No. 4 Indiana Pacers (+500) vs. No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder (-700)
Fiddle: "It's hard to find much value betting Oklahoma City in the series or game to game. The market is shading towards Indiana. I'm lucky to have some Thunder futures because it does feel a bit priced out now. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to win MVP is a look instead of OKC series betting because his usage rate is so high. Some other players can pop in spots, but his stat set is nearly guaranteed. And he's the engine all year. It would take a bad SGA performance and a dominant performance from another Thunder player to win — which on the OKC side has a slim chance of happening.
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"Throughout the series, Tyrese Haliburton is going to have to be a scorer for the Pacers to have much of a chance. His over points, under assists are looks for me. The Pacers will have to rely on 3-pointers. Oklahoma City makes you take 3s, and Indiana will space and shoot. Props-wise, Myles Turner should have decent volume.
"I like the Game 1 over. My model has it at 231.9 points, though I understand the slight reductions for the NBA Finals. Small market moves [on the] over since open at 229.5, [with] 230.5/231 still showing up, but still a small actionable over for me. These are two of the top three teams in pace, which really drives totals betting. Chet Holmgren was out in both regular season matchups, and he allows OKC to play small and space with five out."
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Best bet: Game 1 over 230.5
Logan: "Dort draws the key assignment of slowing down Haliburton in the NBA Finals. The burly shooting guard will try to get the ball out of Haliburton's hands and with the Pacers point guard a primary passer, it should put Dort in good position to crash the boards.
"Dort's advanced stats show 7.6 rebounding chances in the playoffs, with that metric jumping to 8.2 in the conference finals. He averaged 3.6 boards against Minnesota while checking scorer Anthony Edwards and snatched four or more rebounds in three of the four final games of the WCF.
"Player models for Game 1 of the NBA Finals have Dort pegged between 4.1 and 5.2 rebounds versus Indiana. During the two regular season run-ins with the Pacers, Dort recorded five and seven boards in OKC victories."
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Best bet: Lu Dort Over 3.5 rebounds (+110)
Metler: "At first glance, 33.5 points looks like a high number for SGA — especially with the Thunder sitting as 9.5-point favorites in Game 1. But for SGA, this total still feels a touch too low.
"SGA is projected to score over 35 points in Game 1, which implies fair odds closer to -140. That projection looks justified when you consider how the Pacers have fared against elite scoring guards in these playoffs. Despite having capable individual defenders like Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith, Indiana has generally stayed true to its scheme, avoiding heavy help defense — even when facing players like Jalen Brunson.
"That likely means SGA will see mostly single coverage, which plays to his strength as one of the NBA's most efficient isolation scorers. If he gets rolling, Indiana isn't the type of team to completely sell out to stop him.
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"There is some risk tied to the 9.5-point spread and potential blowout minutes, but that concern is softened by the context: It's the NBA Finals, starters are far less likely to get early rest, and the Pacers have proven they can mount comebacks. With multiple days off between games, rotations should be tight and minutes should be heavy for the stars."
Best bet: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 33.5 points (-110)
Metler: "It's impossible to ignore that in two regular-season matchups against the Thunder, Nembhard led the Pacers in potential assists with 15.5 per game, while Haliburton averaged just 11.5. The Thunder are equipped to throw elite defenders at Haliburton and mix up multiple coverages. As a result, the Pacers will need another playmaker to generate offense, and it's telling that they leaned on Nembhard in that role during the regular season.
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"We have a solid edge on this price, even with Nembhard projected to play only 32 minutes. Given that he'll be tasked with creating offense and likely drawing the primary defensive assignment on SGA, his minutes could very well increase — only strengthening our edge on this prop."
Best bet: Andrew Nembhard over 4.5 Assists (+122)
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Yahoo
27 minutes ago
- Yahoo
NBA Finals predictions! Who will be champion: Pacers or Thunder? And who will win Finals MVP?
The 2025 NBA Finals are here! Will the Thunder complete one of the greatest NBA seasons of all time? Or will the Pacers pull off a major upset? Our writers break down the series and make their championship predictions. 1. What's the biggest question in the Finals? Vincent Goodwill: Tyrese Haliburton's name is on a poster in OKC's locker room, as a wanted man (sarcasm), and he'll receive special attention from the league's best defensive team. How will he handle it? It's arguable he's more important to the outcome of this series than even the MVP, because so much revolves around him. There's no Jalen Brunson to hunt, no Mikal Bridges to torture. If he's not the engine, the Pacers have a hard time scoring. If he's supercharged, they have a shot— maybe a thin shot, but a shot. Advertisement Tom Haberstroh: How can the Pacers get Tyrese Haliburton cooking? He's largely been a nonfactor against OKC's defense the past two seasons, averaging just 12 points per game in four matchups. He's proved the doubters wrong all postseason long, so I wouldn't count out Haliburton in this series. But getting an aggressive Hali will go a long way toward upsetting the Thunder. Dan Devine: Can the Pacers get enough stops against the Thunder offense to stay connected? For all the focus on the other side of the ball — on the strength vs. strength matchup of Indiana's fast-paced offense against Oklahoma City's high-pressure defense — OKC swept the regular-season series largely by scoring 123.5 points per 100 possessions against the Pacers defense. Newly crowned MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is going to get his. Can Indiana find a way to limit Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren and the rest of Oklahoma City's supporting cast enough to keep the games tight and give its elite crunch-time attack an opportunity to tilt the run of play? (Henry Russell/Yahoo Sports Illustration) Dan Titus: Ratings, ratings, ratings. But no, seriously, which bench unit will truly swing the Finals? Both the Pacers and Thunder utilized deep rotations to achieve success in the postseason. Rick Carlisle and Mark Daigneault masterfully adjust their lineups to match their opponents. The minutes that X-factors like Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace, Bennedict Mathurin, T.J. McConnell, or Obi Toppin provide could tip the scale of a game or even a championship. Advertisement Ben Rohrbach: Can Indiana's defense withstand Oklahoma City's offensive firepower? We talk a lot about Indiana's high-powered offense (for good reason) and even more about OKC's top-rated defense (for good reason), but the Thunder play with pace and score in bunches, too. Can Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith stay in front of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander without fouling? Is Myles Turner a formidable enough last line of defense? Can everyone else stay home on Oklahoma City's shooters? It is a lot to account for, and that is just in the halfcourt. God forbid the Thunder catch your defense in transition. 2. Who has the most at stake in the Finals? Rohrbach: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. If he were to win the title and capture Finals MVP honors, he would become only the third guard in NBA history to seize both the regular-season and Finals MVP awards in the same season, joining Michael Jordan and Magic Johnson. He would join Jordan as the only guards ever to hold a scoring title and Finals MVP honors at once. In his wake on the all-time list of point guards would be Chris Paul, Steve Nash and John Stockton. Ahead of him would only be Johnson, Stephen Curry, Isiah Thomas and Bob Cousy — the multi-time champions. This is the company he could keep with a win. [2025 NBA Finals: Pacers-Thunder and the legacies on the line] Advertisement Titus: Tyrese Haliburton. Mr. Statistician Face Man mentioned Hali's underwhelming performances against the Thunder the past two seasons. If that trend bleeds into the NBA Finals, are we sure Haliburton's beaten the overrated allegations? I disagree with the narrative, but a poor showing would give the haters more ammo to reignite that asinine conversation. For all the signature moments he's provided this postseason, I'm anticipating he'll rise to the occasion and continue silencing the critics against one of the best defenses we've seen in a very long time. Haberstroh: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, but if I'm being honest, it's hard to drum up do-or-die stakes when these teams are so young and have such bright futures ahead of them. With that said, the Pacers are playing with house money right now, so the pressure is all on the Thunder to deliver after winning 68 games with the MVP. If SGA wins a title, the volume on the foul merchant chants won't hit the same decibels next season. Goodwill: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the MVP, the league's scoring leader and, let me repeat, MVP by a wide margin. The last reigning MVP to get to the Finals and lose was Stephen Curry in 2016. And remember those jokes, the 3-1 cookies and the like? People still bring that up. Nobody bags on Allen Iverson for 2001, he was lauded for that one-game performance. But Karl Malone in 1997? A big topper in Michael Jordan's legacy. It's too early for the legacy stuff, seriously. But reputation? It will be solidified as the league's top big game player, the foul merchant stuff will quiet, and entering the club of champions is far more important than most can imagine. Advertisement Devine: It's tough to go too heavy into legacy talk with so many of the principles here still so young, with so much runway ahead of them … so let's go with Rick Carlisle. Only 14 coaches in NBA history have won multiple championships, and only three (Phil Jackson, Pat Riley, Alex Hannum) have led more than one franchise to the promised land. No observer with a pulse and two eyes can doubt the impact that Carlisle has had on winning throughout his tenures in Detroit, Dallas and Indiana; a second ring, though, would put him in historically exclusive company. 3. Name an X-factor in this series. Devine: Chet Holmgren. I wrote all about why in our series preview, but the CliffsNotes: He didn't play in either regular-season matchup against Indiana, and who he guards, who guards him and the downstream effects of those two decisions will represent pretty major tactical questions on both sides of the floor. If he can limit Pascal Siakam and keep turning the paint into a no-fly zone, I'm not sure how Indiana scores enough to win this series; if he struggles as much as literally every other defender has with Siakam and gets drawn out of the paint, then the Pacers might have a pathway. Rohrbach: Andrew Nembhard. It sounds like he will draw the initial defensive assignment on Gilgeous-Alexander. During the regular season, he spent 70 possessions defending SGA in their two matchups, according to the NBA's tracking data. Gilgeous-Alexander scored 27 points on 11-of-18 shooting (61%), as the Thunder scored 124.3 points per 100 possessions in that span. Not good. And after what he expends on defense, can Nembhard give the Pacers anything on offense? On a handful of occasions, he has scored 17+ points in these playoffs. In another handful, he has scored single digits. Which Nembhard shows up? Advertisement [NBA Finals preview: Pacers-Thunder key matchups, schedule, X-factors and prediction] Haberstroh: Lu Dort. The All-Defensive First Team member has averaged 18.8 points per game against the Pacers over the last two seasons, which is actually more than the All-Star he was tasked to guard, Haliburton. A lot will hinge on his ability to knock down open shots and lock down Haliburton. If he averages 18.8 points per game in the Finals and neutralizes Haliburton, I low-key could see an Iguodala-esque Finals MVP future. Goodwill: Myles Turner. The bigs in Minnesota struggled with the length, aggressiveness and speed of Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein. Turner was in foul trouble in three of the six conference finals games, and even though he doesn't always score big, he has to be an athletic presence on offense and deterrent on defense. He has to make SGA at least think, for a beat, as opposed to giving him free access everywhere. If he's the inside-outside monster who dominates his matchup, that's a significant flex for the Pacers. Titus: Aaron Nesmith. I think he'll draw arguably the most important assignment of the series, matching up against SGA. As Devine said, SGA will get his, but any disruption to his flow will be crucial for the Pacers. Offensively, Nesmith's elite 3-point shooting in the postseason, specifically from the corner, could offset the Thunder's suffocating defense. As great as OKC's defense is, the Thunder's constant ball pressure can sometimes leave them vulnerable on weak-side rotations. That's an opportunity for the hot-shooting Pacers and Nesmith to take advantage. 4. After Game 1, everyone's going to be talking about _________. Titus: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. It's all eyes on the MVP, as SGA will set the tone for the series from the outset. In their two regular-season matchups, SGA averaged 39 points, 7 rebounds, 8 assists and 2 stocks on 56% shooting from the field. He hasn't missed a beat through three rounds and he ain't stopping on the NBA's biggest stage. Advertisement Goodwill: Lu Dort. He plays football and at times, can be reckless going for loose balls. Defending Haliburton will be his main task and unlike Anthony Edwards, Haliburton isn't the physical specimen, so getting pushed around won't be looked at so kindly. But yes, sticking his chest into everybody will be a story after Game 1. Devine: Alex Caruso. People really like talking about Alex Caruso. Rohrbach: The Thunder's defense. They are historically great, and it is a sight to see. They swarm, forcing a ton of turnovers and turning them into easy, entertaining transition opportunities. It is the most jarring part of watching them, other than the brilliance of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Between Lu Dort, Cason Wallace and Alex Caruso — and even Gilgeous-Alexander — Oklahoma City has waves of point-of-attack defenders to throw at Tyrese Haliburton. In the first of their games during the regular season, the Thunder held him to his lowest usage rate of the season. In the other, the Thunder limited him to three assists. Replicate anything close to either of those accomplishments, and the Pacers have no chance. Advertisement Haberstroh: Chet Holmgren. He didn't play in the regular-season matchups against Indiana, and he's been much better at home than on the road this postseason. There's a good chance he'll be the story coming off his Western Conference finals run. I could see him sliding over at center especially if Indiana goes zone. He's critical to everything they do. 5. What's your Finals prediction, and who's the Finals MVP? Haberstroh: Thunder in 5. My head is telling me it's gonna be a sweep, but my heart won't let me go there. The villainous Pacers will get hot and torch OKC from deep to steal one game, but I'm going with my preseason pick, the Thunder, in a quick one. SGA wins the first clean sweep of MVP and Finals MVP since LeBron James in 2012-13. Titus: Thunder in 6. The Pacers will show resilience and steal a couple of games with their depth and coaching adjustments, but OKC's brilliance will ultimately prevail. It's only fitting that SGA concludes this historic year by becoming the fourth player in NBA history to win the scoring title, MVP, and Finals MVP in the same season. (Henry Russell/Yahoo Sports Illustration) Rohrbach: Thunder in ... 4. With all due respect to the Pacers, the watered-down Eastern Conference has met its match in a 68-win juggernaut. Give Gilgeous-Alexander his Finals MVP, and call it a summer. Advertisement Devine: Read the preview! It's all in there! OK, fine: Thunder in 6, and SGA caps off a season for the ages by adding Finals MVP hardware to his regular-season and Western Conference Finals MVP trophies. Goodwill: Thunder in 5. It's not disrespect to the Pacers. It's just the Thunder are that damn good and those 68 wins weren't by accident. They graduated by beating the Nuggets in the seven-game slugfest. 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NBC Sports
41 minutes ago
- NBC Sports
2025 NBA Finals: Pacers-Thunder predictions, key matchups to watch in roundtable preview
With Game 1 of the 2025 NBA Finals between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Indiana Pacers scheduled to tip off Thursday at 8:30 p.m. ET., we've gathered Kurt Helin, Raphielle Johnson, and Noah Rubin to break down the important questions and the matchups to watch during the series, as well as their predictions on how the 2025 NBA Finals will play out. Kurt Helin, Noah Rubin: Can they? Potentially. Will they? I'm not banking on it. To be clear, this isn't a knock on Indiana's offense, which has been incredible since Tyrese Haliburton was handed the keys to the offense. They play team basketball, and everyone is a threat. However, this is one of the best defenses in league history. They have multiple guards, multiple forwards and multiple bigs that can guard multiple positions. This is a defense that works and fits together, and there aren't any weak links to pick on. If anyone can figure it out, it will probably be Rick Carlisle and Haliburton, but I don't think it's going to be enough to win this series. Raphielle Johnson: The Pacers can potentially break through against the Thunder defense, but this will be a challenge unlike any they've faced this postseason. In addition to their depth, the Thunder, for the most part, have looked extremely connected on that end of the floor. Luguentz Dort's physicality will be a challenge for Tyrese Haliburton, and then Oklahoma City can call on Cason Wallace whenever he needs a break. What I'm also looking forward to is how the Thunder use Alex Caruso. In the conference finals, they were able to go small for long stretches due to his ability to handle a variety of assignments. Kurt Helin: No. Or, at least not enough to win the series. The Pacers have a fantastic offense and Tyrese Haliburton deserves all the flowers coming his way in recent days, plus Indy has generally handled pressure defenses well (Game 5 vs. New York excluded). It's just different with the quality of defenders the Thunder bring. Here's the bigger issue: OKC may be the best switching defense in the league. The Pacers like to force a switch with a high pick early in the offense to get Haliburton matched up on the guy he wants to attack (sorry Brunson), and to get defenses in rotation when he does get downhill. The Thunder, however, can and will switch just about anything 1-5 and don't have a weak defender on the floor, plus their rotations are sharper than anyone else's. Rubin: Jalen Williams vs. Aaron Nesmith. During the regular season, Andrew Nembhard took the SGA matchup on defense, and Nesmith guarded Williams, who had an excellent series against Minnesota. Williams wasn't as effective against Denver, and the Nuggets were nearly able to win the series. The one game OKC dropped against the Timberwolves was Williams' worst performance of the series. Slowing down SGA is a tall task, but if Nesmith is able to take Williams out of the equation, the Pacers will have a better chance at winning this series. Johnson: Myles Turner vs. Chet Holmgren. The Pacers won't win this series without Turner consistently being one of the best players on the floor. He was not in the two regular-season meetings between these teams, and Holmgren did not play in either matchup due to his fractured hip. Turner brings a little more power to the table than the slender Holmgren, but he doesn't always bring that physicality. He didn't have the best conference finals, but the Pacers were good enough in other areas to compensate. They can't afford for Turner to be anything but elite if they're to win the title. Helin: Luguentz Dort vs. Tyrese Haliburton. What we saw in Game 5 vs. New York is something we saw too much of from Haliburton early in the season, when Indiana got off to a slow start: Put a physical, athletic, ball-denying defender on Haliburton and he was too willing to go into a shell and let his teammates essentially play 4-on-4. That didn't work, Haliburton stepped up his aggressiveness in those settings and the Pacers did a better job of off-ball picks and more to get Haliburton the rock. The Pacers' balanced offense doesn't work if Haliburton isn't conducting the orchestra. Nobody frustrates a point guard, and nobody in the league gets over picks as well as Dort, and if he is making Haliburton's life miserable, then Indiana's going to have a miserable, short, series. Rubin: Pascal Siakam. Three-time All-Star. Two All-NBA appearances. The 2018-19 Most Improved Player. Now, Siakam could add a second ring to his collection, and after winning the Eastern Conference Finals MVP award, there is certainly a chance he wins Finals MVP, if they win the series. Basketball Reference currently has Siakam at a 2.1 percent chance of making the Hall of Fame, but will he have more of a case with another ring? I don't think he would if he retired this summer, but his resume would certainly be strengthened. Johnson: Sam Presti. He's already regarded by many as the best lead executive in the NBA today, given what he's done to build the Thunder into a juggernaut that is set up to last. There's just one thing missing from his time in Oklahoma City, and that's a championship. While the 'legacy' conversation focuses on the players, and rightfully so, the respective rotations are pretty young. That doesn't guarantee them more shots at a championship, but I don't think any player will have to deal with the 'legacy' chatter that a LeBron James, for example, did after he moved to Miami. So, I'll go with Presti as my answer. Helin: Rick Carlisle. This run to the Finals may have done it anyway. Within league circles he was always considered one of the best Xs and Os guys out there — going all the way back to his time on Chuck Daly's Nets' staff — but there was a sense among more casual fans that he was a coach who lucked into an NBA Finals win because of Dirk Nowitzki (the way that Frank Vogel's title is viewed by many now, and some might even through Doc Rivers in that mix). It was never true, and Carlisle leading this team to the Finals in a very different style than his previous one shows his versatility and evolution as a coach. Rubin: Thunder in five, with SGA taking the honors. If I was getting overly specific with my prediction, it would be that the Thunder win one game in a blowout, but the rest of the games in this series will be tight. I just don't think the miraculous run from Indiana will result in a championship. SGA will be the best player on the floor, and the Thunder are deeper, which is saying a lot since the Pacers are also a deep team. Indiana may have a slight coaching advantage, but this is a matchup of two elite coaches. I think this will be a close, exciting series, but I just don't think the Pacers will end up winning more than one game. Johnson: I like the Thunder in six games, and Gilgeous-Alexander wins MVP. These have been the two best teams in the NBA since January 1, with Oklahoma City being the best throughout the season. They can match Indiana's strengths, and I have my questions about how effective they'll be defending Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams. Indiana will put up a great fight and win a few games, but Oklahoma City has been the best team in the NBA all season long, and I expect them to get the title to back up that claim. Helin: Thunder in five, and if there is one lock coming into these NBA Finals it would be SGA to win MVP. Indiana has a team built for the modern game and tax apron world, a fun style of play with Haliburton out in front but quality players perfect for their roles such as Siakam, Turner and Nembhard. The Pacers' problem is that they want to play a fast, chaotic game, and Oklahoma City does that better. Haliburton is brilliant but Gilgeous-Alexander is better. Turner is having a great playoff run (well-timed for a guy getting a new contract) but Chet Holmgren is better. Indiana's defense is improved, the Thunder's is suffocating. You get the idea. OKC is just a better version of what Indiana has become.
USA Today
an hour ago
- USA Today
Lamar Jackson contract: Ravens, QB in 'introductory stage' of extension talks
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