Banning Gas Motorbikes in Vietnam Is a Silly Move
This isn't so much about the timeframe, despite some commentators claiming that 12 months is far too little time to make such a transition, since the vast majority of Hanoi's 8 million residents currently drive gas motorbikes. A 2022 study by the International Council on Clean Transportation found that motorbikes and scooters account for 73 percent of Hanoi residents' transportation needs. However, I'm not so sure a short timeframe is wrong. After all, if you want to outlaw something, it makes sense for the ban to be relatively immediate, not in five or ten years. Protracted bans tend to disinhibit first movers. If Hanoi's authorities said it would come into effect in 2030, then the average motorist would be wise to wait. It's most probable that, in five years, electric motorbikes will be cheaper and more readily available, the infrastructure needed to support them will be far more extensive and convenient, and there might be a major revolution in battery technology that means an electric vehicle bought now could be obsolete compared to what's on offer in a few years.
The reason an outright ban is foolhardy is that it will maximize possible downsides. For starters, the communist authorities haven't got a good track record when it comes to enforcing transport bans. Any luck with stopping motorists from parking anywhere they want on the pavement? But suppose that the July 2026 deadline comes along and most of Hanoi's motorbike users haven't ditched their gas-powered machines. What then?
Option one: the authorities follow through with the ban, in which case the livelihoods of millions of people will be impacted, and the city authorities will face a host of new problems to contend with. (Some of those problems will certainly have downstream effects on Vietnam's broader environmental goals, thus undermining the entire point of the ban.) Option two: the authorities postpone the deadline, in which case most people will conclude that the intended goal of the ban wasn't very important (weakening the environmental message) and that the authorities will delay again if most people still haven't transitioned to electric vehicles by the time of the new deadline.
Far more effective is to try to influence habits and social copying. With limited funds, every city in Vietnam could soon be equipped with simple pavement stations where only electric bicycles and motorbikes can be parked. With a little more money (but not a fortune), solar panels could be installed at each of these stations, allowing people to charge their electric bikes for free. This would have three benefits. First, you'd create spaces where electric bikes can be parked, rather than drivers just leaving their motorbikes anywhere on the pavement, as currently happens. Importantly, it would make the transition to electric vehicles an integral part of improving the city's tidiness, making it as much about social order as environmentalism. ('Nice neighbors drive electric').
Second, by investing in the infrastructure needed to support electric vehicles, it would incentivize first movers. Most people simply won't make the change if it's a headache to charge your vehicle, such as by having to bring your bike indoors. People are used to gas-powered motorbikes (it's a habit). They're not going to adopt a new habit if the old one is far more convenient.
Third, and more importantly, it would make driving an electric motorbike effectively free after the point of purchase, a great selling point for the transition. I'm told that VinFast's electric bikes range from $600 to $2,600. The national company has recently started offering some good incentives to people to purchase electric bikes, such as subsidizing the registration fee of an electric bike (5 percent of its value) and free charging until 2027.
Additionally, you could prohibit gas-powered motorbikes from parking in most areas of the city and set up a few parking lots for them at inconvenient locations. If a driver of a gas-powered bike wanted to deliver goods, commute for work, or meet friends at a particular restaurant or bar, the fact that they'd have to park so far away from the busiest locations would make it a massive inconvenience for themselves and for others. In other words, you make the transition to electric vehicles a way of avoiding social embarrassment. Who wants to go on a date with someone who has to park 20 minutes away and walk?
This could be followed up with another touch of negative reinforcement. Why do people brush their teeth? Everyone says dental hygiene; it's really because you don't want to offend friends or the opposite sex with stinky breath. If Hanoi wanted to get creative, it'd ignore messaging about pollution and environmentalism and, instead, hire a bunch of models and run a publicity campaign claiming that people who drive gas-powered motorbikes are dirtier and smellier than those who drive electric bikes. Get a few influencers involved in this, too, and you're on your way to social stigmatization, one of the easiest ways to effect change.
Having said all of this, one must remember a major unintended consequence of the electrification of vehicles that few people consider: it will destroy the repair and servicing sector. Instead of dozens of complex parts found in the internal combustion engine, there are effectively just two or three in an electric vehicle. For drivers, this is fantastic; for mechanics, it's an existential crisis. My guess is that tens of thousands of people currently earn a living in Vietnam by making minor repairs to tens of millions of gas-engine motorbikes. By next July, most of these mechanics in Hanoi could be out of a job.
One solution, which would also massively increase uptake in electrification, would be if local government subsidized people to convert their existing gas-powered motorbikes into electric ones. A half-hour spent on YouTube suggests that this isn't such a complicated process, and I'm sure that Vietnam's ingenious mechanics could quickly turn their hands to this. Doing so would provide mechanics with employment, meaning that the Hanoi (and other city) authorities don't have to cope with thousands of unemployed and essentially skill-less residents in a year's time. It would also make the transition to electric fantastically cheaper for most people, since the cost of converting an existing machine is significantly lower than buying a new electric vehicle. And not forcing millions of people to buy new machines reduces nationwide consumption of metals, plastics, and other materials, thereby also supporting the country's environmental goals. On the other hand, it probably wouldn't be a move supported by VinFast and the Communist Party's growth-at-any-cost apparatchiks.
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His efforts have earned him five years in prison. A year ago today, on August 15, 2024, after a five-hour trial behind closed doors, Tuyen – known to many by his pen-name Anh Chi – was convicted of 'anti-state propaganda' and sentenced to half a decade behind bars. This year marks the 30th anniversary of diplomatic relations between the United States and Vietnam. Vietnam is crucial to the balance of power between democracies like the European Union and dictatorships like China. Democracies rely on Hanoi to counter Beijing's regional influence, even as China remains one of Vietnam's most important trade partners. While Vietnam has successfully balanced its relations with these countries, its harsh response to Tuyen's pro-democracy stance provides compelling insights into its geopolitical strategy – and a potent reason for democracies to advocate for Tuyen's release. Arrests of dissidents are nothing new in Vietnam. Vietnam is a one-party authoritarian regime that has been ruled by the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) since the end of the Vietnam War in 1975. Luong Cuong is its president (though Tuyen suffered repression mostly under To Lam, who served briefly as president prior to being appointed the CPV general secretary). The CPV rules with an iron fist. It has banned all opposition parties, arresting activists who criticize it and imprisoning members of minority groups who peacefully campaign for the right to practice their religion. Since 2011, Tuyen has protested against Vietnam's regime, mainly through YouTube videos and community organizing. In a country that suppresses all independent media, Tuyen amassed 100,000 followers on his YouTube account, Anh Chí Râu Đen, and introduced his viewers to core political issues in Vietnam. He also helped found the No-U movement, a soccer club that dissented against China's incursion into Vietnam-claimed regions of the South China Sea. He organized a campaign to support environmental protection after the Formosa water pollution crisis, helped build schools in rural areas, and assisted victims of natural disasters. He also spoke out against the regime's harsh treatment of pro-democracy activists. In an open letter on behalf of imprisoned Vietnamese dissidents, Tuyen wrote, 'The only thing we did was to act in accordance with our conscience, speak up our thoughts, our desire, our longing.' Vietnam has rewarded Tuyen's efforts with surveillance and police violence. In 2015, plainclothes police officers attacked him in the streets of Hanoi, injuring him so severely that he needed stitches on his face. In 2017, while he was driving his son home from school, more officers beat Tuyen unconscious. One February morning in 2024, when Tuyen was in poor health, three surveillance agents stationed themselves outside his home. They told his wife they just wanted to talk to him. When she opened the door, several plainclothes officers rushed inside, read a search-and-arrest warrant that they refused to show, and arrested Tuyen. To justify their acts, the police cited two videos he had posted on his YouTube channel. One video was about a $200 million donation made by the chairwoman of VietJet Air, Nguyen Thi Phuong Thao, to Oxford University in the United Kingdom. The second video suggested that creating multiple political parties could help solve the problem of corruption in Vietnam. After five months languishing in pre-trial detention without being allowed to contact his lawyers and family, Tuyen was brought to the Hanoi People's Court last August. Although his trial was supposed to be open to the public, only Tuyen's wife and lawyers were permitted to attend. The regime accused him of violating Article 117 of the Vietnamese Penal Code, a vague law that outlaws spreading and that Vietnam has routinely weaponized against activists. Somehow, Tuyen's videos calling for democratic reform constituted such propaganda. At the end of his five-hour trial, the judge sentenced Tuyen to five years in prison without probation. Undoubtedly, the most critical part of this story is Tuyen's ongoing suffering and that of his wife and two children. While Tuyen was held incommunicado, his family didn't know his condition. They were allowed to send him supplies two times a month, but they never learned if he received them. They also did not know if he was being treated well or if he was being tortured. Now, they live without him. But Tuyen's plight also provides insights into Vietnam's geopolitical strategy. Vietnam aims to balance its relations with countries like the U.S. and the EU with its ties to countries like China. For the U.S., Vietnam plays a vital role in countering China's regional influence, while the EU sees Vietnam as a key diplomatic partner. Vietnam has entered into a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with the U.S. It's poised to enter into one with the EU as well. Meanwhile, Vietnam sees China as a valuable trade partner. China is Vietnam's largest import market and second-largest export destination. In addition to forming a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with China in 2008, Vietnam has supported China's transnational repression schemes, facilitating China's arrest and repatriation of at least two dissidents. Both the U.S. and the EU have regarded human rights as foundational to their existing diplomatic partnerships with Vietnam. But as Tuyen's case demonstrates, Vietnam may say it will safeguard human rights. Still, it will unerringly persist in cracking down on dissent, imprisoning people like Tuyen, who criticize Chinese incursion and advocate for positive societal reform. Vietnam is a dictatorship at its core, more akin to China than to the U.S. and the EU. While diplomatic relations are founded on mutual respect among partner nations for each other's sovereignty and political systems, true mutual respect can only be achieved with openness and dialogue. It is vital to understand that Vietnam will only take action to promote human rights if its diplomatic partners hold it to account. This is exactly what the U.S. and the EU must do. The EU issued one statement calling for Tuyen's release when he was first sentenced to prison, which is a promising start. While the U.S. has made statements about Vietnam's arbitrary detention of prisoners in general, it hasn't specifically called for Tuyen's release. We can't know what is happening behind closed doors, but to truly hold Vietnam to account, democracies must consistently call for his release. Without an ongoing dialogue, these countries' relations with Vietnam will remain superficial and lack the foundation of trust necessary to ensure genuine strategic security in the region. Amid all the geopolitics, it's essential to keep in mind the human lives that continue to be harmed by this reticence. Tuyen, whose only crime was suggesting ways for Vietnam to reduce corruption, remains in prison. Meanwhile, his wife and two children are marking one year of his unjustifiable absence from their lives. One year is long enough. Just as Tuyen once spoke up for imprisoned activists in his open letter, it is time for democracies to speak up and call for his release. Doing so would promote meaningful dialogue with Vietnam, advance strategic security and, most importantly, enable an innocent man to return home to his family and loved ones.
Kyodo News
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Vietnam's transformation into a global manufacturing hub with shiny new highways, high-rise skylines and a booming middle class has lifted millions of its people from poverty, similar to China. But its low-cost, export-led boom is slowing and it faces a growing obstacle to its proposed reforms — expanding private industries, strengthening social protections and investing in technology and green energy — from climate change. 'It's all hands on deck. . . . We can't waste time anymore," said Mimi Vu of the consultancy Raise Partners. The export boom can't carry Vietnam forever Investment has soared, driven partly by U.S.-China trade tensions, and the U.S. is now Vietnam's biggest export market. Once-quiet suburbs have been replaced with industrial parks where trucks rumble through sprawling logistics hubs that serve global brands. Vietnam ran a $123.5 billion trade surplus with the U.S. trade in 2024, angering Trump, who threatened a 46% U.S. import tax on Vietnamese goods. The two sides appear to have settled on a 20% levy, and twice that for goods suspected of being transshipped, or routed through Vietnam to avoid U.S. trade restrictions. During negotiations with the Trump administration, Vietnam's focus was on its tariffs compared to those of its neighbors and competitors, said Daniel Kritenbrink, a former U.S. ambassador to Vietnam. 'As long as they're in the same zone, in the same ballpark, I think Vietnam can live with that outcome," he said. But he added questions remain over how much Chinese content in those exports might be too much and how such goods will be taxed. Vietnam was preparing to shift its economic policies even before Trump's tariffs threatened its model of churning out low-cost exports for the world, aware of what economists call the 'middle-income trap,' when economies tend to plateau without major reforms. To move beyond that, South Korea bet on electronics, Taiwan on semiconductors, and Singapore on finance, said Richard McClellan, founder of the consultancy RMAC Advisory. But Vietnam's economy today is more diverse and complex than those countries were at the time and it can't rely on just one winning sector to drive long-term growth and stay competitive as wages rise and cheap labor is no longer its main advantage. It needs to make 'multiple big bets,' McClellan said. Vietnam's game plan Following China's lead, Vietnam is counting on high-tech sectors like computer chips, artificial intelligence and renewable energy, providing strategic tax breaks and research support in cities like Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City, and Danang. It's also investing heavily in infrastructure, including civilian nuclear plants and a $67 billion North–South high-speed railway, that will cut travel time from Hanoi to Ho Chi Minh City to eight hours. Vietnam also aspires to become a global financial center. The government plans two special financial centers, in bustling Ho Chi Minh City and in the seaside resort city of Danang, with simplified rules to attract foreign investors, tax breaks, support for financial tech startups, and easier ways to settle business disputes. Underpinning all of this is institutional reform. Ministries are being merged, low-level bureaucracies have been eliminated and Vietnam's 63 provinces will be consolidated into 34 to build regional centers with deeper talent pools. Private business to take the lead Vietnam is counting on private businesses to lead its new economic push — a seismic shift from the past. In May, the Communist Party passed Resolution 68. It calls private businesses the 'most important force' in the economy, pledging to break away from domination by state-owned and foreign companies. So far, large multinationals have powered Vietnam's exports, using imported materials and parts and low cost local labor. Local companies are stuck at the low-end of supply chains, struggling to access loans and markets that favored the 700-odd state-owned giants, from colonial-era beer factories with arched windows to unfashionable state-run shops that few customers bother to enter. 'The private sector remains heavily constrained," said Nguyen Khac Giang of Singapore's ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute. Again emulating China, Vietnam wants 'national champions' to drive innovation and compete globally, not by picking winners, but by letting markets decide. The policy includes easier loans for companies investing in new technology, priority in government contracts for those meeting innovation goals, and help for firms looking to expand overseas. Even mega-projects like the North-South High-Speed Rail, once reserved for state-run giants, are now open to private bidding. By 2030, Vietnam hopes to elevate at least 20 private firms to a global scale. But Giang warned that there will be pushback from conservatives in the Communist Party and from those who benefit from state-owned firms. A Closing Window from climate change Even as political resistance threatens to stall reforms, climate threats require urgent action. After losing a major investor over flood risks, Bruno Jaspaert knew something had to change. His firm, DEEP C Industrial Zones, houses more than 150 factories across northern Vietnam. So it hired a consultancy to redesign flood resilience plans. Climate risk is becoming its own kind of market regulation, forcing businesses to plan better, build smarter, and adapt faster. 'If the whole world will decide it's a can go very fast,' said Jaspaert. When Typhoon Yagi hit last year, causing $1.6 billion in damage, knocking 0.15% off Vietnam's GDP and battering factories that produce nearly half the country's economic output, roads in DEEP C industrial parks stayed dry. Climate risks are no longer theoretical: If Vietnam doesn't take strong action to adapt to and reduce climate change, the country could lose 12–14.5% of its GDP each year by 2050, and up to one million people could fall into extreme poverty by 2030, according to the World Bank. Meanwhile, Vietnam is growing old before it gets rich. The country's 'golden population' window — when working-age people outnumber dependents — will close by 2039 and the labor force is projected to peak just three years later. That could shrink productivity and strain social services, especially since families — and women in particular — are the default caregivers, said Teerawichitchainan Bussarawan of the Centre for Family and Population Research at the National University of Singapore. Vietnam is racing to pre-empt the fallout by expanding access to preventive healthcare so older adults remain healthier and more independent. Gradually raising the retirement age and drawing more women into the formal workforce would help offset labor gaps and promote "healthy aging,' Bussarawan said.
