Whether with a green light or grudging acceptance, Trump enters war with Iran

Middle East Eye

a day ago

After Israel pummelled Iran in an unprecedented attack and the Islamic Republic launched a barrage of missiles targeting Tel Aviv, US President Donald Trump has portrayed himself as above the fray.
'I gave them 60 days and they didn't meet it,' Trump told The New York Post on Friday. 'Today's 61, you know. Today's day 61.'
Trump was referencing Israeli media reports from March 2025 that said he had sent Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei a letter laying out a two-month window to agree to a new nuclear deal, or face an attack.
The US and Iran held their first round of nuclear talks on 12 April.
For two months, Trump used the threat of Israeli strikes as a form of leverage against Iran, as his administration tried to impose an agreement on it that would strip it of all ability to enrich uranium.
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On Friday, Trump answered the question that had been gnawing at diplomats, analysts and even intelligence officials: whether the president of the United States would give the green light to an Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear programme.
'Israel struck for many reasons - fear Iran's program might soon enter a zone of immunity; [a] risk ready Israeli prime minister for whom striking Iran was a lifelong mission. But the key was Trump's willingness to green light the attacks - or at least not to say no,' Aaron David Miller, a former State Department Middle East negotiator, wrote on X.
CIA briefed on unilateral Israeli attack plans
It's clear Trump knew about Israel's plans for some time.
Middle East Eye revealed earlier this month that the CIA was briefed in April and May on Israeli plans to unilaterally attack Iran's nuclear sites. Israel's Target Systems Analysis and battle plan for cyberattacks combined with precision strikes without any direct US involvement 'impressed' the administration.
But Trump's behaviour in recent months gave observers, and potentially the Iranians, the impression that he would continue to resist Netanyahu's very public lobbying to go along with strikes.
Israel's attacks on Iran amount to crime of aggression, legal scholars say Read More »
Trump surprised Netanyahu in April when he announced at a White House meeting that he would begin direct talks with Iran on curbing its nuclear programme. In early May, he brushed aside his hawkish national security advisor, Mike Waltz, and then snubbed Netanyahu on a visit to the Middle East.
For good measure, Trump even cut a unilateral ceasefire with the Houthis in Yemen that left out Israel.
On the eve of the Israeli attack, Trump said he did not believe it was 'imminent' but was 'something that could very well happen'.
His own Middle East envoy and top negotiator, Steve Witkoff, was set to meet his Iranian counterparts on Sunday in Oman for a sixth round of nuclear talks.
The Iranians say they will not attend the talks, but Trump continues to call for a negotiated deal, under the scimitar of Israeli fire.
Israel's 'trump card'
He warned on Friday of 'even more brutal' attacks to follow and threatened Tehran to 'make a deal…before there is nothing left'.
Experts say that despite Trump's call for more negotiations, Netanyahu has effectively torpedoed the diplomatic route.
'Trump's talk of a return to a nuclear deal is likely to be untenable now'
- David Schenker, Washington Institute for Near East Policy
'Trump's talk of a return to a nuclear deal is likely to be untenable now,' David Schenker, a former senior official in Trump's first administration and expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told MEE.
While Trump has left little doubt that he knew about the strikes, he has been more circumspect on whether they were his preferred outcome.
The US is Israel's closest ally and top military backer, but US officials familiar with Israel's plans say the US had little leverage to prevent an Israeli attack, short of the type of full-scale public censure that no US president has ever issued against Israel, like halting all arms sales.
'If Israel faces what it deems an existential crisis, it could, in theory, threaten to use tactical nuclear weapons against Iran,' a former senior Trump administration official told MEE.
Israel is widely believed to have nuclear weapons, but has never publicly acknowledged it. 'Israel can't be compared to Ukraine,' the official added, referring to the other US ally Trump has tried to rein in at war with Russia.
Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons after the fall of the Soviet Union.
Besides weaponry, one of the US's greatest forms of leverage with its partners is its mastery of intelligence collection, particularly through satellites and intercepting and analysing communications.
But Israel has spent decades penetrating the Islamic Republic of Iran and is not dependent on US intelligence there, experts say.
'Look what we saw in Lebanon. Israel has had two primary target sets over the last two decades. One was Hezbollah and the other was Iran,' Schenker told MEE, emphasising how Israel eliminated Hezbollah's senior leadership in 2024 and left the group in disarray.
Does Trump trust Israel?
Although Trump has tried to frame the Israeli attack as complementing his hard-nosed diplomacy, one Gulf official told MEE they believed the White House was deeply wary of its ally.
'The administration does not view Israel as trustworthy,' the official said.
Prem Kumar, who was a senior director for the Middle East and North Africa under the Obama administration, told MEE that Netanyahu had 'sidelined' Trump.
What is stopping Israel from bombing Iran's nuclear sites? Read More »
'My sense is that Trump is not pleased with how this ended up. He is trying to use the idea of resuscitating the talks to save face. The idea that the Iranians would resume negotiations is ludicrous. Trump looks weak,' added Kumar, now a Middle East expert at DGA-Albright Stonebridge Group advisory.
Regardless of whether Trump gave Israel a green light or tacit approval to attack Iran, experts say that he is now tethered to Israel's military campaign.
Asked by Reuters on Friday whether he would support the US's closest Middle East ally, he replied: 'We've been very close to Israel," he said. "We're their number one ally by far."
"We'll see what happens," he added.
The US came to Israel's defence in April and October 2024 when Iran and Israel exchanged direct fire. Tehran choreographed its attack heavily in April and somewhat in October, experts said.
The best Trump can hope for is that Israel replicates its success with its takedown of Hezbollah in Lebanon in 2024.
The worst outcome is that he brings the US into the very type of Middle East "forever war" he was elected not to.