After L.A. firestorms and Texas floods, forecasters haunted by warnings not being heard
"I have cried on multiple occasions," Chris Suchan, chief meteorologist with WOAI-TV Channel 4, the NBC affiliate in San Antonio, wrote in a recent Facebook post. "At times, I've been overwhelmed with forecaster regret that I could have done more the night before in my weather report."
Forecasters often issue alerts for possible flooding, landslides and "red flag" fire warnings multiple times a year. Sometimes, those warnings are followed by major catastrophes, but other times they are not.
And that has led some to become complacent, rather than heeding the alerts.
Read more: Warnings ignored: The grim connection between the L.A. wildfires and Texas floods
Two massive disasters this year — the Texas floods and Los Angeles firestorms — are leading some to grapple with the question of how to get officials and the public to care and take action.
In the case of Texas, Suchan said he is experiencing what he calls "forecaster regret."
That's despite having presented viewers a weather forecast showing "a signal of localized flash flooding" on the afternoon of July 3 — hours before the disaster struck. During the 6 p.m. broadcast later that day, Suchan pointed to an area "where we could see storms develop and then train over the same area. ... And that is a classic flash-flooding signal here in 'Flash Flood Alley.'"
The disconnect between available warnings and the action officials and the public takes has been seen repeatedly over the years, from inadequate preparations in California ahead of fire weather or flood alerts, to the failure of some communities to evacuate ahead of the catastrophic tsunami that hit Japan in 2011.
Of course, there are times when alerts are taken seriously, and forecasters and officials are in the same room. For instance, the publicity around Hurricane Hilary in 2023 reached a fever pitch as it headed toward Southern California. L.A. Mayor Karen Bass stood at press briefings along with then-Fire Chief Kristin Crowley and the National Weather Service. No deaths were reported in California, despite significant flooding and harrowing rescues in the Coachella Valley.
There are other instances where preparation has helped Southern California emerge from periods of severe fire weather or landslide danger — such as through public safety power shutoffs, or crews emptying debris basins to catch mud pouring from landslides.
Read more: L.A.'s flood-control system survived epic storm. But it's losing battle with climate change
The National Weather Service office in Oxnard, which issues forecasts for Los Angeles, has also made attempts to more clearly get its messages across. In 2019, the weather service issued an "extreme red flag" fire weather warning that got plenty of attention. During last fire season, the agency issued an unprecedented five "particularly dangerous situation" warnings ahead of forecast extreme fire weather conditions — including one on Jan. 6, a day before L.A. County's devastating wildfires began.
Despite the weather service giving briefings as early as Dec. 30 about forecasted increasing fire weather danger, Bass was overseas in Ghana on Jan. 7, when the fire that destroyed much of Pacific Palisades began spreading rapidly. And the L.A. Fire Department, a Times investigation found, chose not to assign roughly 1,000 available firefighters for emergency deployment in advance of the Palisades fire, which ultimately killed 12 people and destroyed more than 6,000 homes, businesses and other structures.
The Times has previously reported that the day before Bass left for Ghana, her aides received an email, on Jan. 3, from the city's emergency management department warning of "high confidence in damaging winds and elevated fire conditions occurring next week." A spokesperson for the mayor said the email did not suggest imminent catastrophe.
Bass later fired Crowley as fire chief, and accused her of failing to provide adequate warning of the potential for a cataclysmic wind event.
One simple lesson that could be learned from past disasters is that both officials and the public need to better respond to forecasters' warnings.
Read more: Six months after the fire, has Mayor Karen Bass done enough for the Palisades?
An after-action report by the weather service from the Joplin, Mo., tornado disaster in 2011 found that most residents didn't immediately head to shelter after hearing the first warning. Among the reasons: apathy, a bias toward optimism and a feeling that sirens were activated too often in Joplin.
But the weather service at that time also said it could do a better job at supporting "effective decision-making," which would help empower people to quickly make appropriate decisions. The agency said it should ensure that tools are in place to easily conduct conference calls with key entities, such as sheriff's offices and other emergency officials.
Suchan remembers listening to weather service meteorologists recall the Joplin tornado, which resulted in 158 deaths — the first single tornado in the U.S. to cause more than 100 deaths since 1953.
"I listened to them describe feeling scarred by the disaster. They asked themselves if their warnings were early enough, strong enough," Suchan wrote in his Facebook post. "The room was very silent through that presentation. It left a mark on me but you can't fully understand that feeling until you experience it for yourself."
In Texas, flooding alerts circulated in the hours and days before the Fourth of July disaster. On July 2, Texas state officials, citing the weather service, warned that "heavy rainfall with the potential to cause flash flooding" was anticipated over the following days. They said swift-water rescue boat squads would be available to assist with flood rescues.
At 1:18 p.m. on July 3, the weather service issued a flood watch for Texas' Kerr County and other areas. On July 4 at 1:14 a.m., a flash-flood warning was issued, sounding the alarm for "life threatening flash flooding."
At Camp Mystic, where at least 27 campers and counselors died, leadership was aware of the earlier flood watch, and also got a cellphone alert of the weather service's flash flood warning at 1:14 a.m. But they did not begin to evacuate campers in cabins near the Guadalupe River until more than an hour later, the Washington Post reported. The Post reported that waters began rising at the all-girls camp around 2 a.m., and breached at least one cabin around 3 a.m. Parts of Camp Mystic are considered at high risk of flooding, according to the Federal Emergency Management Agency.
At a different camp along the same river, Presbyterian Mo-Ranch Assembly, a facilities manager saw the river rising around 1 a.m., and told his boss, who had been monitoring reports of the storms approaching, the Associated Press reported. Camp officials there acted quickly to relocate 70 children and adults from a building near the river, and no one died. There was no warning from local authorities, the AP said.
Read more: FEMA removed dozens of Camp Mystic buildings from 100-year flood map before expansion, records show
In an interview, Suchan said he wonders "are there things that you could have done faster, stronger, or do things differently?"
"We're looking at a massive casualty event and it weighs on my heart," he said.
His counterpart at a local CBS affiliate offered a similar warning ahead of the flooding. Bill Taylor, weather chief at KENS-TV Channel 5 in San Antonio, showed a forecast weather model showing a severe storm "just sitting still" for hours in the area around Kerr County.
"This would be a huge flood problem if this happens," Taylor told his viewers on July 3.
In an interview, Taylor said he doesn't feel guilt about how he conveyed his forecast, saying he gave all the information he had about the flood risk. Still, "moving forward, in all honesty, I've even thought to myself recently how much of my verbiage will now change because of this disaster."
He and other forecasters say they hope people take things like flood watches more seriously moving forward, especially if they live in or visit low-lying areas prone to flooding.
Read more: Unusual summer storms in SoCal bring dry lightning, flooding concerns for weekend
"When we say 'flood watch' in this region, I mean, you've really got to be paying attention," Taylor said.
One lingering question is how closely officials in Kerr County — like the sheriff's office and emergency managers — were monitoring the storm.
"If those emergency managers were sleeping that night, oh my gosh ... they won't have a job anymore," said Alex Tardy, a former weather service meteorologist who owns Weather Echo, a consulting company.
Alerts about possible future floods should've triggered some kind of action well ahead of the storm — especially given the campgrounds located in the area, Tardy said.
Suchan said a proper alerting system should be installed along the Guadalupe River. He noted that further downstream in neighboring Kendall County, the community of Comfort has sirens that were activated to warn of flooding on July 4, "and there were no casualties."
"I don't want to ever see a nightmare like [this]," Suchan said. "It's 2025. We shouldn't be doing this."
Sign up for Essential California for news, features and recommendations from the L.A. Times and beyond in your inbox six days a week.
This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.
Solve the daily Crossword
Hashtags

Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles


Newsweek
2 hours ago
- Newsweek
Triple-Digit Heat Index Triggers Advisories in Nine States
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. Sweltering and "dangerous" heat with indices surpassing 100 degrees Fahrenheit across parts of nine states has prompted the National Weather Service (NWS) to issue warnings for millions of Americans. Newsweek has reached out to NWS for comment via email on Thursday. Why It Matters Extreme heat is the deadliest weather hazard in the United States, posing serious health risks nationwide. The National Center for Health Statistics found that between 2004 and 2018, an average of 702 people died in the U.S. due to "excess heat." In addition, NWS warns that "heat related illnesses increase significantly during extreme heat and high humidity events." Since 1979, more than 14,000 Americans have died from heat-related causes, according to the Environmental Protection Agency. Older adults, young children and people with chronic illnesses face the greatest risk from extreme heat. Prolonged heat waves can also strain local power grids as demand for air conditioning spikes. Extreme weather across the U.S. come amid the Trump administration's proposed cuts of nearly 25 percent to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and staffing reductions at NWS. New Yorkers cross 41st Street and Fifth Avenue in Manhattan during a heatwave on June 25, 2025, in New York City. New Yorkers cross 41st Street and Fifth Avenue in Manhattan during a heatwave on June 25, 2025, in New York City. CraigWhat To Know The NWS has issued a slew of extreme heat warnings and heat advisories across much of the South and Midwest, as well as New Jersey and Pennsylvania. The weather agency warns that "dangerously hot conditions" are expected across portions of the states with some heat index values exceeding over 115 degrees Fahrenheit in Mississippi. Heat index values reflect how hot it feels when both temperature and humidity are factored in. Portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Tennessee, Kentucky, Arkansas, Illinois, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania are all under extreme heat warnings and heat advisories. Extreme heat has persistently baked the South and Midwest over the past few weeks, as well as flash flooding. Extreme heat warnings in the region advised people to "not leave young children and pets in unattended vehicles," noting that "car interiors will reach lethal temperatures in a matter of minutes." Warnings also note that "heat stroke is an emergency" and encourage those who are feeling "overcome by heat" to be moved to a shaded, cool location and call 911. The NWS encourages people to "drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors." In an update on Wednesday, the NWS noted that while the heat isn't necessarily surprising, "when triple digits during the day barely drop to 80 overnight, it becomes extremely dangerous. Extreme and record heat is likely throughout the South through next week with extreme impacts possible for those without adequate cooling or hydration." Heat advisories are in place across dozens of states on Thursday, with NWS in San Antonio, Texas, stating in a Thursday X post: "Today will be the hottest day for many locations in over a month." What People Are Saying Ben Noll, a meteorologist at The Washington Post wrote in a Thursday X post: "Extreme humidity and heat aren't going away — yet. Another surge of corn-effect humidity from Saturday to Wednesday could be even more intense than this past week." In another post he added: "It's not just central states that will feel extreme humidity and heat. The East will too — on Friday in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, before it settles into the Southeast, where there's an extreme risk (Level 4 out of 4) for heat-related impacts into next week." Representative Gabe Amo, a Rhode Island Democrat, said in an X post: "Trump is gutting @NOAA and @NWS while climate change is causing catastrophic extreme weather. @RepHuffman and I introduced my Stop NOAA Closures Act so the President can't close labs predicting storms & leave Americans vulnerable to disasters." What Happens Next The NWS Little Rock, Arkansas forecast warns that "Dangerous heat index values will persist through next week and perhaps longer as high pressure prevails over the mid south."


CNN
2 hours ago
- CNN
Tracking heat: Here's where it will feel like 110 degrees
Extreme temperatures Climate changeFacebookTweetLink Follow Dangerous heat is peaking today for millions in the central United States as a heat dome in summer's hottest month lives up to its reputation — but sauna-like conditions are only just beginning for areas farther east. The heat index — how hot it actually feels given the temperature and humidity — will top out in the 100s from the Gulf Coast to the Midwest Thursday afternoon while it soars above 110 degrees in some parts of the Mississippi Valley. Memphis, Tennessee, had its hottest day of the year so far on Wednesday with a high of 97 degrees and a heat index of at least 106 degrees. The city could match that intense heat Thursday while just south in Greenville, Mississippi, the heat index could hit 110 degrees. Farther north, Chicago's high temperature of 94 degrees could come within a degree of its hottest day so far this year. That same roasting summer heat started creeping into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Thursday. High temperatures in the 90s are likely Thursday afternoon as far north as Burlington, Vermont – located about 30 miles from the Canadian border. The worst heat for the East arrives Friday with high temperatures in the middle to upper 90s expected from Washington, DC, to Boston. These temperatures are up to 10 degrees higher than the typical hottest conditions for this time of year and could challenge the high temperature record for the day in Baltimore, Philadelphia and New York City. The heat index will reach or surpass 100 degrees for many major metros: Washington, DC, and Philadelphia will feel more like 105 degrees Friday afternoon and Baltimore will feel nearly 110 degrees at times. Heat remains the deadliest form of extreme weather in the US. Globally, heat waves are becoming more frequent, more severe and lasting longer as the world warms due to fossil fuel-driven climate change. More than 60 million people in the eastern half of the US are under at least a Level 3 of 4 'major' heat risk on Thursday, with that total jumping to more than 90 million on Friday, according to the National Weather Service. Heat this severe impacts anyone without access to effective cooling or proper hydration, not just vulnerable populations, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. And for those without air conditioning, staying indoors can become deadly during the hottest parts of the day, the agency warns. Humid conditions will also prevent temperatures from cooling significantly overnight. It could still be close to 80 degrees in Washington, DC, by sunrise Saturday — nearly 10 degrees higher than a typical low for late July. When overnight temperatures don't cool down enough to offer relief for overheated bodies, people are at greater risk for heat-related illnesses. Nighttime temperatures are taking the hardest hit from climate change, warming faster than daytime highs. Climate change is making this week's heat wave at least three times more likely for nearly 160 million people, almost half the US population, when compared with a world without fossil fuel emissions, according to an analysis from the climate research nonprofit Climate Central. The heat dome will shrink Saturday, replaced by more typical, though still very toasty, late July conditions parts of the Northeast and Midwest. Sweltering heat will persist through the weekend, mainly in southern parts of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic on Saturday and in portions of the Southeast Sunday. That general trend of a hotter-than-normal South is expected to continue through next week, according to the latest Climate Prediction Center forecasts. CNN Meteorologist Briana Waxman and CNN's Luke Snyder contributed to this report.


Newsweek
3 hours ago
- Newsweek
Americans in 5 States Urged to Keep Windows Shut
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. Air quality alerts were in effect across parts of five states on Thursday, with the National Weather Service (NWS), in coordination with regional agencies, advising residents to take steps to reduce the impacts of air pollution. Why It Matters The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) warns that exposure to ozone may irritate the respiratory tract, cause airway inflammation, and aggravate existing conditions such as asthma, emphysema, and chronic bronchitis. Regarding particle pollution, the EPA states that studies have linked exposure to a range of health effects, including respiratory symptoms such as coughing and wheezing, the development of asthma, and increased susceptibility to respiratory infections. Experts recommend keeping windows and doors closed during periods of low air quality. What To Know As of Thursday morning, air quality alerts were in effect for Minnesota, Ohio, Connecticut, Colorado, and Wisconsin. In Minnesota, an air quality alert was issued due to fine particle pollution. Smoke from wildfires in Canada's Saskatchewan and Manitoba regions was expected to reach southwestern, northeastern, and central parts of the state on Thursday after covering the northwest the day prior, officials said. "Some uncertainty remains regarding how far south the ground-level smoke will reach by Friday morning, when winds are expected to become southerly and push the smoke back to the north. Air quality should improve gradually from south to north beginning Friday afternoon, with improvement in fine particle levels below the alert threshold expected by the end of Friday," read the alert. Residents were advised to keep their windows closed overnight to prevent smoke from entering their homes. Meanwhile, in Wisconsin, an air quality alert was issued for the northwestern part of the state, also due to wildfire smoke originating from Canada. In Connecticut, an air quality action day was announced for Hartford and northern Fairfield, New Haven, and Middlesex Counties. "An Air Quality Action Day means that Ground Level Ozone concentrations within the region may approach or exceed unhealthy standards," the alert said. In Ohio, An Air Quality Advisory for ground-level ozone was issued by the Northeast Ohio Areawide Coordinating Agency for Ashtabula, Cuyahoga, Geauga, Lake, Lorain, Medina, Portage and Summit Counties. It was in force until midnight Thursday night. "Air quality levels will be unhealthy for sensitive groups during this period," read the alert. Locals were advised to drive less and use alternative modes of transportation, such as public transit and biking, if possible, to help reduce regional air pollution. Additionally, Colorado's Mesa County had been issued an air quality advisory due to smoke from "both in-state and out-of-state wildfires. According to a live map from the non-profit Watch Duty, the Turner Gulch fire in the county had burned over 17,000 acres and was at 41 percent containment at the time of writing. What People Are Saying AccuWeather meteorologist Brandon Buckingham previously told Newsweek: "Ozone is a secondary pollutant, meaning it's not emitted directly from sources, but is formed through chemical reactions. These reactions require sunlight and higher temperatures, making warmer months more prone to ozone formation. When air is stagnant, pollutants don't get dispersed, allowing ozone to build up to unhealthy levels." What Happens Next The NWS issues regular forecasts on its website and social media channels.