Latest news with #&P
Forbes
7 hours ago
- Business
- Forbes
Will Paychex Stock Rise On Its Upcoming Earnings?
CHONGQING, CHINA - MARCH 23: In this photo illustration, the Paychex logo is displayed on a ... More smartphone screen, with the company's latest stock market performance and candlestick charts visible in the background, highlighting Paychex's real-time financial trends, stock price fluctuations, market volatility, and investment developments within the payroll services, human resources, and financial technology sectors, on March 23, 2025 in Chongqing, China. (Photo by) Paychex (NASDAQ:PAYX) is preparing to announce its earnings at the close of June. The consensus forecast anticipates earnings of approximately $1.20 per share, an increase from $1.12 in the same quarter last year, while revenues are projected to rise by about 6.5% year-over-year to $1.38 billion. This growth is expected to be fueled by sustained strength in the company's core Management Solutions and Professional Employer Organization (PEO) services, with operating margins likely trending upward, driven by the application of technology and data analytics, along with improved cross-selling of products. The company boasts a current market capitalization of $57 billion. Its revenue over the past twelve months was $5.4 billion, operating profitably with $2.3 billion in operating profits and net income of $1.7 billion. Nevertheless, for those seeking upside with less volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio offers an alternative, having outperformed the S&P 500 and delivered returns surpassing 91% since its inception. See earnings reaction history of all stocks Here are some insights regarding one-day (1D) post-earnings returns: Additional information regarding observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns following earnings is compiled along with the statistics in the table below. PAYX 1D, 5D, and 21D Post Earnings Return A relatively lower-risk strategy (though not effective if the correlation is weak) involves understanding the relationship between short-term and medium-term returns after earnings, identifying the pair with the highest correlation, and making the appropriate trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D exhibit the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves as 'long' for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Below is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. It is noteworthy that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns. PAYX Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns Discover more about Trefis RV strategy, which has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (a combination of all three: the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), yielding strong returns for investors. Additionally, if you're seeking upside with a smoother journey than an individual stock like Paychex, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P and achieved over 91% returns since its inception.
Mint
a day ago
- Business
- Mint
Banks, energy weigh on Australia shares; Brickworks jumps on buyout deal
Brickworks ends 27.6% higher after merger deal with major shareholder June 2 (Reuters) - Australian shares fell on Monday, dragged by banks and energy stocks, as fresh flare-up in U.S.-China trade relations kept risk sentiment in check, while shares of Brickworks surged 27.6% on a buyout deal. The S&P/ASX 200 index ended 0.2% lower at 8,414.10 points. The benchmark logged monthly gains in April and May and has risen 14.6% since the slump on April 7 triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs. The financial sub-index was among the biggest drags on the day, with three of the 'Big Four' lenders falling while Commonwealth Bank of Australia gained 0.3%. Bank losses were likely driven by a new wave of profit-taking, especially after the sector staged a full recovery from April's selloff to a four-month high, said Hebe Chen, a market analyst at Vantage Markets. Trump on Friday accused China of violating a bilateral deal to roll back , rekindling concerns over trade tensions between the world's two biggest economies. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Sunday Trump and his counterpart in China, Xi Jinping, will speak soon to discuss trade issues, including a dispute over critical minerals. Focus will now be on the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia's May policy meeting on Tuesday and the country's gross domestic product data on Wednesday. Economists expect an annual growth rate of 1.5%, up from 1.3% previously. The energy sector was the biggest percentage decliner on the benchmark, falling 1.4%. Industry major Woodside Energy and smaller peer Santos shed 1.1% and 1.5%, respectively. Miners fell 1%, tracking weaker iron ore prices from last week. Among individual stocks, Brickworks inked a deal that would allow its major shareholder Washington H Soul Pattinson to buy out the building materials maker, creating a new company worth A$14 billion ($9.04 billion), sending its shares soaring 27.6%. New Zealand markets were closed due to a public holiday. ($1 = 1.5492 Australian dollars) (Reporting by Shivangi Lahiri in Bengaluru; Editing by Eileen Soreng)
Daily Maverick
2 days ago
- Business
- Daily Maverick
Asia shares, dollar slip as tariff tensions darken mood
Nikkei slips, S&P futures weighed by risk-off mood Dollar down before jobs data, steel levies deadline ECB seen cutting rates, BoC on hold Oil bounces on relief OPEC did not raise output even further By Wayne Cole SYDNEY, June 2 (Reuters) – Asian share markets and the dollar made a soft start on Monday as US-China trade tensions continued to simmer, while investors turned defensive ahead of key US jobs data and a widely expected cut in European interest rates. There was little obvious reaction to President Donald Trump's threat late Friday to double tariffs on imported steel and aluminium to 50%, beginning on June 4, a sudden twist that drew the ire of European Union negotiators. Speaking on Sunday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Trump would soon speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping to iron out a dispute over critical minerals. Beijing then forcefully rejected Trump's trade criticism, suggesting a call might be some time coming. White House officials also continued to play down a court ruling that Trump had overstepped his authority by imposing across-the-board duties on imports from U.S. trading partners. 'The court ruling will complicate the path ahead on trade policy, but there remains an ample set of provisions available to the administration to deliver its desired results,' said Bruce Kasman, chief economist at JPMorgan. 'There is a commitment to maintaining a minimum US tariff rate of at least 10% and imposing further sector tariff increases,' he added. 'An increase in ASEAN to discourage transhipment looks likely, and the bias for higher tariffs on US-EU trade persists.' Markets will be particularly interested to see if Trump goes ahead with the 50% tariff on Wednesday, or backs off as he has done so often before. In the meantime, caution reigned and MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan went flat. Japan's Nikkei fell 1.4%, while Hong Kong dropped 2.5%. South Korean stocks edged up 0.2% on hopes a snap presidential election on Tuesday would deliver a clear winner. EUROSTOXX 50 futures dipped 0.2%, while FTSE futures and DAX futures were little changed. S&P 500 futures eased 0.4% and Nasdaq futures lost 0.5%. The S&P had climbed 6.2% in May, while the Nasdaq rallied 9.6% on hopes final import levies will be far lower than the initial sky-high levels. Front-running the tariffs has already caused wild swings in the economy, with a contraction in the first quarter likely turning into a jump this quarter as imports fall back. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate is running at an annualised 3.8% for April-June, though analysts assume this will slow sharply in the second half of the year. Data this week on US manufacturing and jobs will offer a timely reading on the pulse of activity, with payrolls seen rising 130,000 in May while unemployment stays at 4.2%. EYEING UNEMPLOYMENT A rise in unemployment is one of the few developments that could get the Federal Reserve to start thinking of easing policy again, with investors having largely given up on a cut this month or next. A move in September is seen at around a 75% chance, though Fed officials have stopped well short of endorsing such pricing. There are at least 11 Fed speakers on the diary for this week, led by Fed Chair Jerome Powell later on Monday. Fed Governor Christopher Waller did say on Monday that cuts remain possible later this year as he saw downside risks to economic activity and employment and upside risks to inflation from the tariffs. A softer jobs report would be a relief for the Treasury market, where 30-year yields continue to flirt with the 5% barrier as investors demand a higher premium to offset the ever-expanding supply of debt. The Senate this week will start considering a tax-and-spending bill that will add an estimated $3.8 trillion to the federal government's $36.2 trillion in debt. Across the Atlantic, the European Central Bank is considered almost certain to cut its rates by a quarter point to 2.0% on Thursday, while markets will be sensitive to guidance on the chance of another move as early as July. The Bank of Canada meets Wednesday and markets imply a 76% chance it will hold rates at 2.75%, while sounding dovish on the future given the tariff-fuelled risk of recession there. Widening rate spreads have so far offered only limited support to the US dollar. 'The greenback remains near the lower end of its post-2022 range and considerably weaker than interest rate differentials would imply,' noted Jonas Goltermann, deputy chief markets economist at Capital Economics. 'Sentiment around the greenback remains negative and it continues to look vulnerable to further bad news on the fiscal and trade policy fronts.' On Monday, the dollar slipped 0.3% on the yen to 143.55, while the euro edged up 0.2% to $1.1370. The greenback even fell 0.2% on the Canadian dollar to 1.3727, getting no tailwind from Trump's threat of 50% tariffs on Canadian steel exports. In commodity markets, gold firmed 0.6% to $3,310 an ounce, having lost 1.9% last week. Oil prices bounced after OPEC+ decided to increase output in July by the same amount as it did in each of the prior two months, a relief to some who had feared an even bigger increase. Brent rose $1.60 to $64.38 a barrel, while US crude gained $1.74 to $62.53 per barrel.
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Millennial investors bought cheap stocks in Trump tariffs market turmoil
More than a third of millennial investors bought stocks and shares in the market turmoil that followed US President Donald Trump's 'liberation day' tariffs, a survey reveals. The age group took advantage of the volatility that swept across the world's financial markets to buy cheap stocks, according to the research from Charles Stanley Direct. Some 38% of millennial DIY investors said they bought stocks and shares in the aftermath of Mr Trump announcing a sweeping set of new tariffs on exports to the nation. This compares with 16% of the baby boomer generation – those aged between 60 and 78. DIY investors refers to those who actively pick their own investments, also including assets such as cryptocurrency and gold. Across all age groups, 31% bought stocks in the market dip, the survey of 1,000 investors showed. Stock markets around the world suffered sharp drops in the days following the so-called 'liberation day' announcements on April 2. The UK's FTSE 100 saw its worst single day of trading since the start of the Covid pandemic, while European, US and Asian indexes also took a battering. The US's S&P 500, which tracks the country's biggest listed firms, lost about five trillion dollars (£3.7 trillion) in value over a two-day record run of losses. However, most indexes, including the FTSE and the S&P, have since recovered the losses as the US has struck new trade deals with countries including the UK and China. Mr Trump is also facing roadblocks to his trade policies from the US courts. On Thursday, a federal appeals court said it was allowing Mr Trump to continue collecting import taxes for now, a day after a lower court blocked the duties. Rob Morgan, chief investment analyst at Charles Stanley Direct, said: 'The fallout following the imposition of universal tariffs in early April was widespread, and especially alarming for investors as markets plummeted and carefully curated portfolios were blown off course. 'However, a large cohort of DIY investors were not simply looking to sell up or ride out the wave, but saw the market turmoil as an opportunity to seek discounts and reposition their investments.' Meanwhile, other, more risk-averse investors flocked to so-called 'safe haven' assets during the stock market turbulence. About a fifth bought alternative assets, such as gold, the survey showed. The precious metal hit its highest price in April, hitting about 3,500 US dollars (£2,600) per ounce, but has eased back slightly since. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Business Journals
2 days ago
- Business
- Business Journals
Is a long-term hedge fund strategy possible in this market?
There has never been so much brinkmanship from a U.S. administration in modern times. The first month of executive orders has produced a cyclone of speculation and a great deal of action and reaction. The U.S. recently enacted tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China. Within one day, the first two were paused. Such moves have injected a great deal of volatility into markets. Conflicting business policies continue to add to the uncertainty and volatility. How can hedge fund managers hold to a medium- to long-term strategy in a world where so much is uncertain? In this article, we look at how fund managers have been preparing and will continue to respond by lowering their beta exposure. The current state of hedge fund activity Hedge funds began the year divesting from equities. This culminated in a selloff the Friday before the new tariffs where hedge funds 'sold nine of 11 sectors in the S&P,' reported Bloomberg. The most-sold groups included: Consumer discretionary Industrials Financials Energy Communication services Information technology Meanwhile, retail investors bet the opposite. As fund managers sold stocks, retail investors poured $2.1 billion into equities. The market dropped upon news of the tariffs, though less than expected. Futures fell — the Nasdaq composite, 2.35%, and the S&P, 1.7%. It is clear everyone is reading the room differently and holds a wide variety of views on the long-term health of the U.S. economy. On the one hand, JP Morgan Chase announced that it expected tariffs to lower U.S. growth by 0.5%-1% and raise inflation by that same amount. On the other, a Feb. 3 Gallup poll found consumers buoyant. Sixty-one percent expect stocks to rise in value, the most since Gallup began including that question in 2001. Yet, is it worth asking how useful projections, even when given sweeping tariffs, can be paused the next day? What is the long-term effect of those partnerships? Reuters asked fund managers why they were not more aggressive in the administration's first few weeks. Several said they were hesitant to 'get sucked in,' which appears to be trumping the fear of missing out. Many are hedging and investing in bonds and treasuries. "Either inflation comes down and you get hit on margins, or it doesn't, and the Fed hits you because it doesn't cut (rates)," Matt Smith, investment director at Ruffer LLP told Reuters. "We are at our lowest equity weight." Hedge funds have been readying for this market Hedge funds prepared for this presidency with their highest borrowing levels since 2010. They expect the dollar to continue to rise and protectionist policies to have some upsides for the U.S. economy. They also expect to benefit from the Trump administration's promise to maintain lower taxes — notably, corporate taxes and the capital gains tax, via extension of the expiring 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) – though the administration's proposal on taxing of carried interest is not a favorable one for fund managers. Hedge funds are adjusting their strategies in four ways: Reducing their beta exposure As they say, predictions are difficult, especially about the future. Right now, it feels even more fraught. As tariffs and the president's 60+ executive orders (and counting) show, we can likely expect many quick policy decisions and reversals without warning. In response, Reuters reports that hedge fund managers are reducing the portion of their portfolio dedicated to beta investments to between 15%-5%, down from an average of 20%. Managers want less exposure to technology stocks Tariffs aside, stock market routs like the one that followed news of China's AI DeepSeek have managers on edge. As DeepSeek panic spread, the chipmaker Nvidia shed $600 billion in market cap. Since the industry has shifted to AI models, fortunes seem to rise and fall faster. Managers want less exposure to emerging markets The administration's protectionist policies seem certain to favor the dollar at the expense of our trading partners. They also favor reshoring operations. This makes it difficult to gauge the long-term value of foreign investments, even if they may be more attractive. Managers are bullish on alternative investments Fifty-six percent of hedge funds now have multiple managers and more capacity to shift into alternative investment strategies. For example, real estate and healthcare – from our conversations, hedge fund managers feel all the protectionist policies and declining trade make real estate and healthcare better investments. Consider the implications of new investment strategies As hedge funds shift their investing strategies, there may be a learning curve for firms entering new territory. Managers newly entering commercial real estate will find that the standard capital stack has changed over the past few years, and mezzanine debt is preferred over equity. There also may be new tax consequences to consider. For example, municipal bonds are taxed federally unless they are tax-free, in which case they are probably still subject to state and local taxation. Citrin Cooperman's hedge fund professionals are here to support you each step of the way. If you would like to discuss your allocation strategy and the accounting and tax implications of those holdings, please contact Alexander Reyes, partner and financial services industry practice leader, at areyes@ or James Catalano, partner, at jcatalano@ Citrin Cooperman is one of the nation's largest professional services firms. Since 1979, we've steadily built our business by helping middle market companies and high net worth individuals find practical, actionable solutions to help them meet their short-term needs and long-term objectives. Our clients span a diverse array of industry and business sectors and find sustainable growth through utilizing our menu of comprehensive personal and professional services. Citrin Cooperman & Company, LLP, a licensed independent CPA firm that provides attest services and Citrin Cooperman Advisors LLC, which provides business advisory and non-attest services, operate as an alternative practice structure in accordance with the AICPA's Code of Professional Conduct and applicable law, regulations, and professional standards. For more information, please visit "Citrin Cooperman" is the brand under which Citrin Cooperman & Company, LLP, a licensed independent CPA firm, and Citrin Cooperman Advisors LLC serve clients' business needs. The two firms operate as separate legal entities in an alternative practice structure. The entities of Citrin Cooperman & Company, LLP and Citrin Cooperman Advisors LLC are independent member firms of the Moore North America, Inc. (MNA) Association, which is itself a regional member of Moore Global Network Limited (MGNL). All the firms associated with MNA are independently owned and managed entities. Their membership in, or association with, MNA should not be construed as constituting or implying any partnership between them.
