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The Hill
31-07-2025
- Politics
- The Hill
Ukraine: Scenes from the ground
Robert Sherman is a White House correspondent for NewsNation. He is reporting from Ukraine. Subscribe to his newsletter: Frontlines with Robert Sherman here. (NewsNation) — A quick flip through my passport and short glance up at me. The border guard's eyes met mine for hardly more than a moment. Then. Thump. The sound of a stamp imprinting into the thin page serves as the wordless welcome back into Ukraine. The crossing from Poland was complete, and we were off. Greetings from war-torn Ukraine, where I will be for the next few weeks. It's my first time back here since the start of the war in 2022. VIDEO: Back in Ukraine Some things are eerily similar, others strikingly different. For example, as we passed through Lutsk just over the border, sirens started to blare. I had just come from Israel during the so-called 12-Day War where Israelis were taking the risks quite seriously. Those 12 days, we ran into the bunkers countless times, joined by civilians holding their loved ones tightly as tears streamed down their cheeks, fearing the lethality of Iran's capabilities. Here in Lutsk? No such fear. The sirens didn't stop the young couple we saw from taking photos outside the castle in town. Nobody ran for shelter. While alerts went off, they encompassed a wide region and the average Ukrainian there (in this case rightly) believed the threat wasn't coming their way. That's different than the early days of the war. I remember being here when places like Lutsk, Lviv and Ivano-Frankivsk would be routinely targeted, especially sensitive sites like the airports. So, that's an evident change. People in Western Ukraine, at face value, feel largely safe as life attempts to carry on in the new normal. But tonight, our team is heading to Kyiv, which we'll be using as our main base of operations. The capital has been quiet the last few evenings, but nevertheless every night people barricade themselves underground in the subway stations. That's a different new normal than in Lutsk. Something that hasn't changed? The checkpoints we encounter every few miles along the highway. The pressure was on in the early days to root out and identify Russian spies and saboteurs. That objective remains the same, roughly three and a half years intothe war. VIDEO: What's New, What's the Same? All of next week, we will have some exclusive reporting on NewsNation that we'll be sharing with you across our platforms. We'll be showing you a different side of the war than you've seen in the past — and why American officials are looking on anxiously as war changes rapidly before our eyes. But of course, there's the elephant in the room: There's a new president in the White House. There are new foreign policy aims. And there is a renewed push to bring this war to an end. Just this week, President Trump announced he is imposing a 'new deadline' on Russia to make progress towards peace. 'I'm going to make a new deadline of about 10 or 12 days from today,' the president said to reporters in Scotland on Monday. 'There's no reason in waiting. It's 50 days, I want to be generous, but we just don't see any progress being made.' That would make the deadline sometime around August 7-9, based upon the president's words. Will Russia comply? Do Ukrainians believe peace is possible? How are things different with the 47th president sitting in the Oval Office? All questions we hope to answer. But I'd like to open this up to you all as well. What questions do you have about Ukraine? From the geopolitics to the day to day, I'd like to know where your curiosity is guiding you. When I was 25 years old, I found myself on a plane to Europe the day Russia invaded. That experience changed me forever. I documented many of those stories in my upcoming book, 'Lessons from the Front,' which you can pre-order through Amazon, Barnes and Noble or Bloomsbury. I'm interested to find out what else is new and what has changed since my last time here in Ukraine. If you have a question or observation, please write to me at rsherman@ or through any of my social media channels such as Facebook, X, Instagram or TikTok. More to come soon.
The Hill
30-07-2025
- Business
- The Hill
Despite war and sanctions, Iran's oil exports surge
'Maximum pressure' ought to mean 'maximum pressure.' Yet despite sanctions and war, the Islamic Republic of Iran's oil exports continued to surge in the first six months of 2025. No doubt, U.S. economic penalties and Israeli strikes severely dented Tehran's missile, military, and nuclear capabilities. But if Washington is serious about dismantling Iran's nuclear weapons program and rolling back the spectrum of threats the regime poses according to President Trump's national security memorandum, more will be needed, and quickly. According to data available for purchase from Tankertrackers, Iran exported nearly 1.7 million barrels per day in June 2025 of crude oil, condensates, and fuel oil, resulting in a total of more than 50 million barrels worth an estimated $3.6 billion. These revenues will be used to fund oppression at home and aggression abroad, as well as to rebuild Iran's shattered air defenses, missile capacity, and terror networks. In February, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent pledged to reduce Tehran's oil exports to nearly zero. That has not happened yet. Tehran's recorded oil exports under Trump 2.0 consistently exceed the levels recorded at the end of the Biden administration in January 2025. From February to June 2025, Iran averaged 1.67 million barrels per day in crude oil exports, 37 percent higher than the January 2025 figure. When including condensates and fuel oil, Tehran's total export average for the February to June period increases to 1.84 mbpd, reflecting a 30 percent rise compared to January 2025. This stands in stark contrast to the maximum pressure period during Trump's first term, when average oil exports hovered around 800,000 barrels per day, with some months dropping as low as 300,000. Maximum pressure was so effective in Trump's first term that Iran's president and oil minister claimed that the sanctions were more damaging to oil exports than the Iran-Iraq War had been in the 1980s. No officials are making these claims today. Last month, Iran exported a total of 50 million barrels of oil, around 1.7 mbpd, with 88 percent being crude oil, 10 percent fuel oil, and 2 percent condensates. Over 92 percent of these exports were destined for China while 6 percent went to the United Arab Emirates. Nearly 80 percent of these shipments came from the oil export terminal at Kharg Island, which continued operating during the 12-Day War. In fact, despite a few symbolic strikes against energy depots and refineries, Israel largely avoided striking Iran's major oil and gas production and export facilities. Moreover, preliminary data from the first half of July indicates that Iranian oil exports are recovering from a slight decline in June, reaching nearly 2 mbpd with 1.8 mbpd being crude oil. The primary destinations for these exports are China and the United Arab Emirates, both of which were jurisdictions featuring major sanctions violations in Trump's first term. The reasons for Iran's continued export capacity are many. Beyond Iran's evolving sanctions-busting capabilities, Washington's insistence on a deal throughout 2025 incentivized illicit shippers and buyers to stay in the sanctions-busting game, assuming a deal may be close. Additionally, Washington has taken a graduated approach toward maximum pressure, focused on expanding the scope of Iran's illicit oil export operations to include its ' shadow fleet,' smaller Chinese private refiners, front companies and ' shadow banking ' networks financing these sales. A brief alleged 'pause' in Iran sanctions enforcement, as first reported by the Wall Street Journal in June, may have also played a role. Thus far, Treasury has not targeted major banks and ports, particularly in China, that are implicated in this illicit trade. A congressionally mandated report from the Biden administration identified 27 countries involved in Iran's illegal oil trade. Data from June 2025 indicates that major ports in Fujairah, Jebel Ali, Zhoushan, Taicang, Qingdao, and Changzhou are part of this network. The U.S. Treasury could expand its list of targets to include major ports, banks, and any firms involved in this illicit trade, particularly those with an international presence. Washington can also designate board members, C-suite level executives, shareholders, and ultimate beneficial owners. But lawfare is only one component of economic statecraft. To effectively take-down Tehran's oil export network as part of a comprehensive strategy against the Islamic Republic, the U.S. will need to leverage all elements of national power. For example, the U.S. Navy could significantly increase its efforts to seize tankers transporting Iranian oil. Additionally, covert operations could target those who defy sanctions, focusing on the most egregious offenders. This will send an unambiguous message: the cost of doing business with Iran has escalated dramatically, and the consequences will be severe. For Trump to achieve his policy goals and Bessent to fulfill his promise, the cost of doing business with Iran must be raised. Otherwise, they risk replicating the failed Biden-era approach to sanctioning Iran.
LeMonde
25-07-2025
- Politics
- LeMonde
Iran nuclear talks: Europeans bet on 'snapback' threat to bring Tehran back in line
Iran displays the utmost indifference in front of them. However, by wielding the threat of massive sanctions, French diplomats believe they and their German and British partners in the E3 group hold a trump card, a lever capable of steering Tehran back toward oversight of its nuclear program. Since the "12-Day War," during which Israel, with US support, attempted to destroy Iranian nuclear facilities between June 13 and 25, the Islamic Republic has expelled International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors and threatened to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. To bring Tehran back in line, the Europeans are betting on diplomacy. A meeting was set for Friday, July 25, in Istanbul, Turkey, between Western E3 envoys and representatives of the Iranian regime. This is an "important" but not "decisive" first step, according to Kazem Gharibabadi, Tehran's nuclear negotiator, who spoke on Wednesday to a handful of media outlets, including American news website Axios. According to James Acton, a nuclear policy expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, simply agreeing to meet again would be a step forward.
Hindustan Times
24-07-2025
- Politics
- Hindustan Times
Beware Iran's New Ruling Elite
All wars have consequences, particularly for the vanquished. For the Islamic Republic of Iran, the 12-Day War—its recent conflict with Israel and the U.S.—hasn't been a soul-scorching, society-rending fight in the way of the Iran-Iraq War. From 1980-88, hundreds of thousands perished and battlefield trauma nearly cracked the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the theocracy's indispensable pillar. But that conflict did offer an opportunity for Iran: The struggle led the regime to build institutions that guaranteed the revolution's survival. The 12-Day War, by contrast, has weakened the heads of those institutions substantially and looks likely to launch a new generation of leaders. That's bad news for Israel and America. Today, the regime is defined ideologically by its fight against Israel and the U.S. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and his minions have tried to claim victory over the Jewish state in the 12-Day War. But whatever they say in public, the overwhelming sentiment among them is surely not pride but shame. The loss has greatly diminished the supreme leader's stature. And the consequences of defeat will catapult little-known, hard-core believers—the Revolutionary Guard officers who proved themselves against the Syrian rebellion a decade ago—into the weakened ruling elite. The headline for Israel and America: These men won't compromise on the regime's nuclear-weapon ambitions. And that's about all we know of them. During the Islamic Revolution in 1978-79, neither Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini nor many of his senior adjutants were enigmas to those who had studied Iran. They told us their goals and motivations. As those revolutionaries aged, they compiled their speeches, wrote books or allowed others to chronicle their intellectual evolution. The new crew on the cusp of power today is comparatively illiterate. These men have a thin paper trail because they see little reason to explain themselves to their countrymen or to the outside world. They are drawn from militant groups such as the Paydari Front and the second tier of the Revolutionary Guards. They look to guidance from the likes of the religiously obsessional Saeed Jalili, a former nuclear negotiator who abjures compromise. They are found in the security organs, occupy seats in parliament and run their own education centers. They have created their own underground shadow government and ideological ecosystem. The supreme leader's weakened position has left these men an opening. If Mr. Khamenei had crossed the nuclear threshold and tested a weapon—as voices within the Revolutionary Guards advised him to do months ago—Iran would probably have foreclosed the possibility of foreign attacks. Now the 86-year-old cleric has to worry about dangerous discontent among battle-hardened soldiers. No matter how much the regime tries to play on Iranian nationalism, it's unlikely to recapture the citizenry, who no longer see theocrats and their enforcers as estimable expressions of their national identity or faith. To crush the countrywide Women, Life, Freedom movement in 2023—the most recent of many undermining protests—the regime beat, tortured, poisoned and killed young women and girls. Such brutality permanently severs the bonds between society and state. Even Israeli and American bombing runs won't restore them. Indeed, the rising generation of the Revolutionary Guards have defined themselves by their willingness to brutalize their countrymen repeatedly. And these guardsmen have had two other core commitments: the A-bomb program and the proxy war strategy devised by their fallen hero, Qassem Soleimani, the Revolutionary Guard dark lord whom an American missile felled in Baghdad in 2020. Israel's onslaught against these proxies since Oct. 7, 2023, has badly battered, perhaps permanently crippled, Soleimani's proxy-based 'axis of resistance' against the Jewish state and the U.S. But the nuclear-weapon ambitions remain viable. Moving forward, the Islamic Republic is unlikely to construct large enrichment plants such as Natanz or rely on mountains to protect its atomic assets. U.S. and Israeli satellite and aerial reconnaissance is too good, and construction times for new underground facilities are too long. Numerous, easily concealed surface facilities are now a better bet—so long as the regime can neutralize foreign spies in Iran. The mullahs have already launched a nationwide dragnet to cleanse their government of spies. These vicious counterintelligence measures will paralyze nuclear construction for a time, but eventually could enable a clandestine nuclear program that neither Jerusalem nor Washington can stop. The Iranians and Israelis are in a deadly intelligence duel. During the Cold War, Western and Soviet intelligence services continuously went at each other, but destiny seldom hung in the balance. The doctrine of mutually assured destruction provided some comfort and maneuvering room. Israelis are less certain that the threat of mutual annihilation works with the Islamic Republic's zealots. Are there enough Iranians in the right places who will risk their lives and the lives of their loved ones to stop the mullahs and the Revolutionary Guards from obtaining the ultimate weapon? Even if Israel has developed a technical capacity to penetrate Iranian official communications, it's still the most pressing question before the Mossad. A second question also looms: Can Jerusalem learn enough about the new, fiercely anti-Zionist members of the Iranian elite to frustrate or compromise them? Learning where they live, though obviously important, will be the easy part. Mr. Gerecht, a former Iranian-targets officer in the Central Intelligence Agency, is a resident scholar at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Mr. Takeyh is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.
L'Orient-Le Jour
23-07-2025
- Politics
- L'Orient-Le Jour
Iran suspects Israeli interference in recent fires and explosions
BEIRUT — Over the past two weeks, a spike in seemingly random fires and explosions throughout Iran has raised speculation over possible Israeli involvement, according to an article by the New York Times. These incidents, occurring on an almost-daily basis, have damaged a wide range of infrastructure, including major oil refineries, apartment complexes and even a highway outside of a major airport. Three Iranian officials, one of which works for the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, shared with the New York Times their belief that these instances were an act of sabotage directly from Israel. These beliefs were corroborated by a European official, stating that recent events align with Israel's past use of both psychological warfare and strategic targeting. These suspicions were founded in the history of secret Israeli operations taking place in Iran, including explosions and assassinations of nuclear and military facilities and personnel, as well as a statement by Mossad, Israel's national intelligence agency. In June, the Mossad director announced, 'We will be there, just as we have been up to now,' implying operations would continue in Iran even after the conclusion of the 12-Day War. The rubble from a recent explosion on an apartment building in Qom left so much rubble that not a single part of the surrounding block remained untouched. As Iranian officials told the New York Times, a unit seemed to have been rented by agents who turned on the gas of the kitchen appliances and subsequently left the building, intentionally causing the explosion. Another target was a compound that housed employees of the judiciary. Officials stated that this attempt was most likely to threaten the judges and prosecutors living there, signaling that they could be targeted — reminiscent of how Israel has previously targeted Iranian scientists. However, Iranian authorities have publicly declared that most blazes stemmed from accidents, notably gas leaks, avoiding pointing the finger at Israel. Director of Tehran's fire and public safety departments, Ghodratollah Mohammadi, said 'Worn-out equipment, the use of substandard gas appliances and disregard for safety principles,' are the cause. This is one of many attempts by Iranian officials to prevent public panic, especially as they avoid escalating tensions due to the weakening of their military capabilities by the recent war. Despite these efforts, the frequent explosions have led to much anxiety. Omid Memarian, an expert at a Washington-based foreign policy research institute, said, 'The Iranian government's long record of cover-ups and lack of transparency…have only deepened public fear and suspicion.' These reports come at a time when skepticism is already high, following the mysterious death of General Gholamhossein Gheybparvar, a commander of the Revolutionary Guards. While the official announcement stated that he died due to a flare-up of decades-old injuries, many Iranian citizens' wariness increased. A statement by Mahdi Mohammadi, a conservative Iranian politician, mirrored these fears. 'We are not even in a cease-fire now; we are in a fragile suspension, and any minute it can end, and we are back at war,' he said. On Wednesday, Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian warned that his country is 'fully prepared for any new Israeli military offensive,' in an interview with Al Jazeera. 'Our armed forces are ready to retaliate and strike deep inside Israel,' he said, adding that Tehran does not trust the current cease-fire and is preparing for 'all possible scenarios.' Pezeshkian accused Israel of trying — and failing — to destabilize and dismantle Iran, saying both sides have inflicted heavy blows, though Israel 'conceals its losses.'
