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Globe and Mail
3 days ago
- Business
- Globe and Mail
Why This Statistical Edge Favors CRWD, JNJ and LULU For the Coming Week
A critical problem within the standard practice of market analysis is that the methodologies often beg the question: the assertions assume the conclusion within the premise. For example, it's not uncommon to hear experts talk about price-to-earnings ratios of 15 being 'good value' or a head-and-shoulders pattern being 'bad' for the target stock price. Is the chart pattern or financial ratio a legitimate example of that which is being asserted? And if so, what is the empirical evidence that the event in question is predictive? Often, the answer is some dressed-up version of 'just because,' which then becomes a self-referential loop. A better approach is to analyze market breadth, which is basically the sequence of accumulation and distribution. In other words, market breadth is demand and demand benefits from the beautiful quality of binarism — it's either happening or it's not. Binary metrics are also discrete, meaning that they don't succumb to the non-stationarity problem of fundamental and technical analysis. While these latter approaches may offer heuristic insights, their relevance is incredibly fragile across vast stretches of time and sentiment regimes. That's because the metrics of comparison (such as share price) tend to drift or evolve, often quite dramatically. In contrast, the language of demand — of buying and selling — remains the same, whether we're talking about the market in 2025 or 1925. This discretized model — where the volatility of price action is compressed or abstracted into a binary genetic code — offers tremendous probabilistic insights. Last week, I identified three stocks using the model that signaled a higher-than-average propensity for upside. Comparing Monday's opening price to Friday's close, all three securities moved higher. Two of them at some point in the week exceeded the short strike price of the bull call spreads I discussed as prospective ideas. To be clear, the market is chaotic, which means losses are guaranteed to happen. My point? We have limited resources. So, with empirical data, I'd like to direct your attention to probabilistically compelling ideas. CrowdStrike (CRWD) Fundamentally, CrowdStrike (CRWD) presents arguably a no-brainer idea as a long-term investment because cybersecurity cannot be ignored. In late May, Victoria's Secret (VSCO) had to take down its website temporarily due to a data breach. It represented the latest high-profile example of the risks businesses face in the modern digitalized ecosystem. Given that nefarious online activities are unlikely to fade anytime soon, CrowdStrike enjoyed a shot of relevance, sending CRWD stock higher. Further, the equity is up almost 37% on a year-to-date basis, easily outperforming the benchmark tech index. Still, there could be some more upside remaining. In the past two months, CRWD printed a '6-4-U' market breadth sequence: six up weeks, four down weeks, with a net positive trajectory across the 10-week period. Notably, in 61.9% of cases, the following week's price action results in a gain, with a median return of 4.04%. Should the implications of the 6-4-U pan out as projected, CRWD stock could reach $487.33, possibly within a week or two. Based on the above market intelligence, aggressive traders may consider the 475/485 bull call spread expiring June 27. Using data available to Barchart Premier members, this transaction involves buying the $475 call and simultaneously selling the $485 call, for a net debit paid of $480. Should CRWD stock rise through the short strike price at expiration, the maximum reward is $520, a payout of over 108%. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) At first glance, healthcare giant Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) doesn't particularly seem attractive. True, JNJ stock benefits from a Moderate Buy consensus rating from Wall Street analysts. On the other hand, the Barchart Technical Opinion indicator rates the equity as a 40% Sell. It's not the worst signal in the world but it's not exactly comforting either. Nevertheless, there's a chance that JNJ stock can break out of its sideways funk that it's been on since early April. As it stands, the security printed a 6-4-D sequence: six up weeks, four down weeks, with a net negative trajectory across the 10-week period. In 66.67% of cases, the following week's price action results in upside, with a median return of 1.33%. If the implications of the above pattern pan out as expected, JNJ stock could theoretically reach above the $157 level. Assuming the bulls maintain control of the market, a push above $158 isn't out of the question. With the above intel in mind, aggressive traders may consider the 155/157.50 bull call spread expiring on June 20, which is less than two weeks from now. Lululemon Athletica (LULU) For a high-risk, high-reward idea, speculators may consider Lululemon Athletica (LULU). As Barchart content partner Motley Fool mentioned, LULU stock crashed after the underlying company released its first-quarter earnings report. Actual results were so-so but the market seemed to reserve the bulk of skepticism toward President Donald Trump's tariffs policy, which appeared to contribute to a weak sales outlook. Whatever the case, LULU stock dropped nearly 20% on Friday. Not surprisingly, the financial publication ecosystem has largely labeled the security a name to avoid. However, from a statistical standpoint, Lululemon could be interesting. In the past two months, LULU stock printed a 6-4-D sequence: six up weeks, four down weeks, with a net negative trajectory across the period. In 60.71% of cases, the following week's price action results in upside, with a median return of 6.12%. That means if the implications of the above pattern pan out, LULU could hit $281.50 within a short time frame. For those who really want to swing for the fences (but do so rationally), the 275/280 bull call spread expiring June 27 is awfully tempting. This transaction calls for a net debit of $185 and if LULU stock rises through the short strike price at expiration, the maximum reward is $315, a payout of over 170%.
The Guardian
26-05-2025
- Entertainment
- The Guardian
The Empress Murders by Toby Schmitz review – Jazz Age mystery packed with corpses and charisma
On stepping aboard the Empress of Australia, the setting for Toby Schmitz's debut novel, I thought I might be in for a fizzy nautical romp. I rather hoped so. The news, presently, is mostly vile; a parade of cruelty, stupidity and profound, preventable suffering. A Jazz Age mystery authored by a celebrated Australian actor – you'll have seen him on mainstages across the country, and recently in the TV adaptation of Boy Swallows Universe – sounded like just the ticket. In the early chapters of The Empress Murders, we have just one corpse to contend with, and many dazzling characters to follow through the staterooms and corridors of the upper and lower decks. Inspector Archie Daniels, the ship's detective, seems like a glum chap, Chief Steward Rowling is sweatily unwell, and we learn quickly that Mr Frey, an Australian poet, fought at the Somme and Gallipoli. Sign up for the fun stuff with our rundown of must-reads, pop culture and tips for the weekend, every Saturday morning But the war is over, it's 1925, and the Empress has been fitted out with a new cabaret saloon. The passengers are primed to drink and dance and drug their way across the Atlantic. There's Tony Hertz-Hollingsworth, 'sapphire velvet sports coat with plum silk pocket square and matching tie (top button popped), white trousers knifepleated, two-tone wing-tips'. His wife of three weeks, Nicola, spots Frey and squeals 'Newcomer!' Everyone is a suspect, no one can escape, the parties simply must continue. Frey is a freeloader, having invited himself to dinner with the Cavendishes; they 'really are tall enough to write home about'. Such larks! There might be a murderer aboard, but surely one dead deckhand will not spoil the fun? As the Empress sails further away from Portsmouth, however, Schmitz confounds expectations. We are no longer in a jolly Agatha Christie novel, but perhaps in a film directed by Sam Peckinpah or Park Chan-wook. The corpses pile up, so many of them that they spill out of the kitchen where Inspector Daniels directs them to be stored. The parties take on a desperate air and the pace of the novel slows. Sign up to Saved for Later Catch up on the fun stuff with Guardian Australia's culture and lifestyle rundown of pop culture, trends and tips after newsletter promotion The violence of the crossing is mirrored by the back-stories of the characters, which, as they emerge, form a collage of the waning British Empire and its brutal legacies. Through the lives of the toffs, the musos, the waiters, the bodyguards and sundry passengers and staff, we traverse the Commonwealth and witness dispossession, genocide, enslavement and all manner of violence and hypocrisy, returning again and again to the charnel houses of the Great War. These flashbacks are heavy-going and mighty didactic, as if Schmitz suspects his reader risks – like the cast and crew of the Empress – being so taken with the froth and frocks as to be indifferent to the bloody truths they conceal. It's not giving anything away to say that the reader twigs to who is responsible well before the poor old ship's detective does. We might grasp for a neat motive to explain the crimes but soon enough realise that any such reckoning is inadequate. Schmitz cues us to see the psychotic violence of The Empress Murders not as the work of an individual but as the expression of nothing less than history itself (let the band play on). The narrative machinery of The Empress Murders is unusual, in that the novel is narrated in part by the boat. The boat-narrator speaks not just in the voice of the Empress of Australia, but an armada of boats. The Empress is a bark canoe, a trireme and an ocean liner, an unsinkable boat with a commanding narrative position. Schmitz uses this device sparingly, staying mostly in a cozy close third and ventriloquising his characters; as boat, he addresses his readers directly. I'm not sure this very conspicuous narrative device is strictly necessary, but it is a measure of Schmitz's aesthetic ambitions for his novel, which are aligned with the avant-garde techniques of the first decades of the 20th century. The poet Frey is obsessed with Dada, and so, I think, is Schmitz, whose approach to narrative design rests heavily on jump cuts and collage, on startling juxtapositions and stomach-turning shifts in register. It is through the boat that Schmitz delivers an ominous thesis about history: 'Within my names within names, my kernel has always included Death Barge. Whether you believe in me or not, I've always been ready to ferry you to annihilation.' This is no pleasure cruise. By this stage of the novel, the reader has abandoned all hope of returning to the soothing rhythms of the jaunty nautical murder mystery. In terms of genre, we have been blindfolded, spun around three times and given a shot of brandy. Is it farce? Is it genius? Is it a bit? The reader is left with little choice but to stumble on and let the boat do its thing. Schmitz wants to entertain his readers, and also to provoke them. His characters are delightfully loquacious – ribald wits, most of them – and even the sullen ones are daubed with charisma. What it's all for is another matter. Is The Empress Murders a pulpit for Schmitz to rail against the abuses of empire past and present – or is it an improv stage? Is it a grand dissertation on history – or an experimental frolic? Are we being instructed to reflect on the past, or to look around at our annihilating present with fresh eyes? The answer to these questions is: all of it, and more. This is a novel that wants to be everything; it's stuffed to the gills not just with corpses but with language, with games, with gorgeous costumes and period details. The effect is overwhelming. But as Schmitz and the Dadaists and a thousand cabaret artists know, aesthetic derangement is a fit response – perhaps the only appropriate response – to a senseless and cruel world ferrying itself towards destruction. The Empress Murders by Toby Schmitz is out now (Allen & Unwin)
CTV News
14-05-2025
- Sport
- CTV News
Bubble hockey enables B.C.'s own Stanley Cup match
A bubble hockey game is paying tribute B.C.'s two Stanley Cup-winning teams, the 1915 Vancouver Millionaires and the 1925 Victoria Cougars.
The Independent
13-05-2025
- Entertainment
- The Independent
On 100th anniversary of 'The Gold Rush,' Cannes tips hat to Charlie Chaplin
One hundred years after Charlie Chaplin made dinner rolls dance and ate his shoe like it was a fine meal, 'The Gold Rush' has been vividly brought back to life in a new restoration that premiered Tuesday at the Cannes Film Festival. On the opening day of its 78th edition, Cannes debuted a 4K restoration of 'The Gold Rush,' one of Chaplin's most beloved silent masterpieces. The screening, held just before the festival's official opening ceremony, was part of a new day-one tradition for restored films, festival director Thierry Fremaux said before the screening at Cannes' Debussy Theatre. Years in the making, this 'Gold Rush' pristinely restores Chaplin's Tramp to all his downtrodden glory. The 1925 Alaskan frontier comedy may be marking its centenary, but it looks bracingly fresh in the restoration carried out by La Cineteca di Bologna. The restoration was more complicated than most because it included an extensive search for any missing footage. In 1942, Chaplin edited the film and re-released it with sound effects, music and narration. That version landed two Oscar nominations, but the restoration sought to get as close to the 1925 original as possible. In 'The Gold Rush' Chaplin's lone prospector ambles through the snowy Alaskan wilds in pursuit less of gold than some food and perhaps companionship. His antic, cliff-dangling struggles make up much of the film's deft slapstick, but the Little Tramp's humble, sweet hopes for romance greatly exceed his strike-it-rich ambitions. The film's premiere drew two grandchildren of Chaplin: Kiera Chaplin and Spencer Chaplin. 'What to say about 'The Gold Rush?' said Spencer Chaplin. 'It was his biggest production to date. He built the set — it was almost like a tourist attraction in L.A. at the time. He built the mountains.' The screening in Cannes drew a packed house in one of Cannes' largest theaters, a crowd that the Chaplin descendants warmly surveyed. 'Our grandfather would be really proud to see this, a hundred years later, to see all you here and interested in seeing the film,' said Kiera Chaplin. 'The Gold Rush' will roll out in theaters worldwide on June 26 in a release organized by mk2 Films. ___ For more coverage of the 2025 Cannes Film Festival, visit
News.com.au
11-05-2025
- General
- News.com.au
Iconic ‘Spite House' hits market for $1.2m
An iconic 'Spite House' in the US has hit the market again for $US799,000 ($A1.2 million), exactly 100 years after it was built. Best known as the 'Montlake Spite House', the wedge-shaped home was constructed in the Seattle neighbourhood in 1925. The two-bedroom residence, which measures just 55 inches across at its slimmest point, has become a local legend. According to multiple reports, the property was allegedly built by its original owner in an act of vengeance against a neighbour amid a furious land dispute Legend has it, a woman created the home seeking revenge against her ex-husband, Realtor reports. After she and her spouse split, she was awarded a tiny 3,090 square foot parcel of their shared property in the divorce settlement — on which she decided to build a petite home in a bid to 'block his view in the front yard,' according to the home's owner, Emily Cangie. Ms Cangie, who bought the home in 2019, according to records, opened up its doors in 2023 for a video tour with YouTuber Kirsten Dirksen, while sharing details about the property's history. 'The story goes that she decided to build a house to block his view in the front yard,' Ms Cangie said, explaining that, at the time of her divorce, the woman was unable to 'get her own loan in the U.S.' So, having been left unable to buy her own property, she constructed the dwelling — which has since cemented its place in Seattle's history books. However, another version of the story suggests that the dwelling was actually built by a landowner who wanted to get revenge on a neighbour who made an 'insultingly low' offer on the land where the home is located. Regardless, the property has earned quite the reputation over the years, having first been sold back in 1983 for $US50,000. Today, the home is registered to an LLC under the name 'Montlake Spite House;' however, records indicate that it has not been sold since Ms Cangie and her husband purchased it. The dwelling has, however, undergone a serious makeover in recent years — one that saw its once-yellow exterior transformed to an elegant blue-grey hue. Its listing description makes no attempt to hide the unique layout of the dwelling, joking that the property is 'wedged' into the local neighbourhood — and noting its somewhat odd proportions. 'Wedged into Seattle's historic Montlake neighbourhood, the Spanish Revival style Montlake Spite House is 15 feet wide on one side and just 55 inches on the other,' it reads. The description then goes on to call attention to the many upgrades that have been made to the two-storey abode, including a 'new roof, new paint, a new water heater, and an updated kitchen.' 'Bright main floor offers a living room, bedroom, bath, and kitchen,' it goes on. 'The lower level has a family room, bedroom, laundry, bath, and separate entrance, ideal for guests, Airbnb, or an ADU.' During her YouTube tour of the home, Ms Cangie insisted that the home's peculiar shape did not cause too many difficulties, although she conceded that the areas in which the property narrows almost to a perfect point could be a bit harder to navigate. 'The bathroom is where the angles get weird … makes me think of bathrooms in New York,' she joked. 'I mean, compared to New York, [we're] just grateful that there is not a toilet in [the] bedroom.' Referring to the dwelling as her 'little wedge of cheese,' Ms Cangie admitted that she was initially concerned living in the home would feel like she was residing in a 'fishbowl,' but that the more intimate spaces are actually more cozy than claustrophobic. She went on to compare the home to New York's iconic Flatiron building, explaining that, despite having numerous owners over the years, the property's structure has never been changed or expanded. 'Everybody's kind of left it intact,' she noted. 'As far as we know, this is the original footprint and it's in great shape.'
