4 days ago
Series Preview/Know Your Foe: Boston Red Sox @ Houston Astros
After a 9-game road trip, the Astros come home, bringing some new friends (Urias, Sanchez), some old friends (Correa), and some old friends-now-adversaries (Bregman). Oh, and the AL West is now a full-on dogfight. Bring on the drama.65-54 (2nd in the AL East) 4.0 GB, 1.0 GB for the 1st AL Wild Card/2.5 Game lead for 2nd WC.
Road Record: 26-32 (Astros Home Record: 35-24)
Record vs. AL West: 10-12 (Astros vs AL East: 8-8)
Last 10: 7-3 [WWWWWWLWLL] (HOU: 5-5 [WLLLWWLWLW])
2025 Record vs. Houston: 3-0 (@BOS Aug 1-3)
All-Time Record vs. Houston: 52-33
Playoff Record: 7-8 [2017 ALDS (L) 1-3; 2018 ALCS (W) 4-1; 2021 ALCS (L) 2-4]
Houston caught Boston at a bad time. Even as the Red Sox did seemingly little at the trade deadline, they took the AL West leaders and slapped them around something fierce, sweeping a 3-game set by a combined 15-5. Boston worked their way up to an 7-game winning streak, winning their subsequent series against the Royals 2-1. After a Thursday off-day, the Sox went out west, going to the Padres, taking Game 1 10-2 before losing the second one 4-5. The 3-game set in Houston is the end of their 6-game road
HR: RF Wilyer Abreu (21)
RBI: SS Trevor Story (73)
BA: LF Jarren Duran (.264) [Based on eligibility for batting titles, otherwise 1B Romy Gonzalez leads that category (.302)]
OPS: RF Wilyer Abreu (.805) [Based on eligibility for batting titles, otherwise Alex Bregman (.911) leads that category]
Pitching:
ERA: Garrett Crochet (2.24) [Based on eligibility for ERA title. Otherwise, considering the rest of the staff, Aroldis Chapman, over 50 appearances, has a 1.18 ERA]
Wins: Garrett Crochet (13)
Saves: Aroldis Chapman (21)
WHIP: Garrett Crochet (1.07) [ERA title eligibility, otherwise it would be Aroldis Chapman (0.74)]Monday, Aug 11@ 7:10 p.m. CDT: Garrett Crochet (13-4, 2.24 ERA) vs. Cristian Javier (First action of 2025)
Tuesday, Aug 12 @ 7:10 p.m. CDT: Dustin May (6-8, 4.93 ERA) vs. Spencer Arrighetti (1-2, 7.43 ERA)
Wednesday Aug 13 @ 6:10 p.m. CDT: Walker Buehler (7-6, 5.40 ERA) vs. Hunter Brown (9-5, 2.51 ERA)C: Carlos Narvaez (.248/.319/.409)
1B: Abraham Toro (.250/.304/.381)
2B: Ceddanne Rafaela (.259/.300/.439)
3B: Alex Bregman (.298/.380/.531)
SS: Trevor Story (.256/.301/.422)
LF: Roman Anthony (.280/.394/.417)
CF: Jarren Duran (.264/.331/.458)
RF: Wilyer Abreu (.251/.323/.483)
DH: Masataka Yoshida (.246/.286/.400)
Yeah, the Red Sox offense hasn't diminished all that much in over a week. (4th in Runs, 7th in BA, 7th in OBP, T-10th in HRs). Generally the Red Sox play better offense at home (not too dissimilar to other teams, where statistically, teams play better offense at home parks vs. road venues). On the road, Boston bats roughly 20 points worse (.242 vs .265) and most other numbers reflect that (OBP: .312 vs .337; SLG: .411 vs .448; OPS: .723 vs .785). However, Boston actually hits more HRs on the road (75) vs. at Fenway (68). Their best road hitters are among their best overall hitters (real statistical shock there), with Duran leading the way with .264 BA.
Again, not a huge change overall in just over a week. Their overall ERA improved from 10th to 7th in MLB, but the BAA is still 19th and the WHIP actually fell to 20th. Much like the offense, the pitching is not near as effective on the road, with the ERA almost a full half-run higher (3.99 on the road vs. 3.46 at Fenway). Most other numbers are better for Red Sox's pitchers at home vs. the road, although they do walk more batters at home (209) than on the road (185), even though they've only played four fewer games on the road vs. home. The Astros will face off against Crochet, the staff ace, and if the Red Sox have the lead, they will face Chapman yet again. In two games against Houston, Chapman pitched 1.2 innings, striking out 2, walking none and allowing no runs.
CF Ceddanne Rafela. Maybe not who you might expect, but in the most recent 3-game set in Boston, Rafela had a series against Houston. Setting aside the 1st game, where he went 0-for-4, Rafela went 5 of 7 with 1 RBI and 2 Doubles. He raised his batting average from .259 to .267 while playing against Houston. In his last trek to Houston, Rafela went 3-of-12 with 2 RBIs and 3 Doubles. There are no shortage of weapons in the Boston lineup, but Rafela is one to keep an eye on this week.
Not a lot of significant changes from the last list, although 2 x pitchers (Zack Kelly and Nick Burdi) are off the list and now at the Boston AAA affiliate:
P Tanner Houck (flexor); 15-Day IL; Projected Return: September 2025
P Justin Stalen (Shoulder); 60-Day IL; Projected Return: September 2025
P Luis Guerrero (elbow); 15-Day IL; Projected Return: August 2025
P Lian Hendricks (hip); 60-Day IL; Projected Return: September 2025
3B Marcelo Mayer (wrist); 10-Day IL; Projected Return: TBD
P Hunter Dobbs (ACL); 15-Day IL; Projected Return: 2026
P Kutter Crawford (wrist); 60-Day IL; Projected Return: 2026
1B Triston Casas (knee); 60-Day IL; Projected Return: 2026
Since Houston and Boston last met, Boston is generally doing well…at least when they are in Boston. After the sweep of the Astros, Boston took the series against the Royals. However, they went on the road to San Diego and lost 2 of 3. No shame in losing to the Padres, but as Boston looks to catch Toronto, that loss in the series didn't help. Right now, Boston would start the post-season on the road. That is not ideal for a team that is far better at home than on the road. Still, Boston is in a slightly better place now than when they first met Houston a week ago. Will their trade acquisitions on the pitching staff hold up and can the hitters still hit as the pressure increases? That will be the biggest question for the Red Sox as they enter the stretch run.
When this series opens Monday night, the game might almost be secondary to all the other storylines. You have Bregman making his return to Houston since he signed with Boston. Yet, you also have Carlos Correa returning to Houston in the Star-H uniform. Throw in the return of Cristian Javier from the IL, and there are plot-lines as far as the eye can see. It is almost lost that Houston only leads the AL West by a half-game, given that Seattle is on a 7-game winning streak. They are off Monday, but then they open a series at struggling Baltimore. It is entirely feasible that after this 3-game set in Houston, the Astros no longer hold the AL West lead. Yet, for the Astros organization, the standings are not as important as getting the injured pitchers, like Javier, Garcia, France and Arrighetti, back into the fold for late September/early October. Along with the pitchers, it is also all about getting the field players further integrated into the team, with the potential return of Alvarez into the lineup. Boston is a weaker team on the road, but Houston hasn't been as dominant at home, only winning one of their last four home series. Then again, if they can take the momentum from their last two series wins (@ Miami and @ NYY), then it could get real interesting. Shaping up for a massive stretch run for both teams. Oh, and maybe, if some of the bad blood from that one Hector Neris series remains, another bench-clearing quasi-donnybrook awaits?
