Latest news with #2025Outlook
Business Wire
16-07-2025
- Business
- Business Wire
KKR Releases 2025 Mid-Year Global Macro Outlook
NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--KKR, a leading global investment firm, today released its 2025 Mid-Year Global Macro Outlook by Henry McVey, CIO of KKR's Balance Sheet and Head of Global Macro and Asset Allocation (GMAA). In 'Make Your Own Luck,' McVey and his team explain why, despite the turbulent start to 2025 and additional expected market drawdowns, they remain positive in their outlook. They note their strong belief that attractive financial conditions, a global easing cycle, ongoing productivity gains, and lack of net issuance—coupled with compelling, powerful investment themes—will drive this cycle both further and longer than many think. And, while they acknowledge that the low rate, low volatility beta trade that defined 2015-2021 is now over, they advocate that investors stay the course by leveraging the team's long-standing Regime Change framework and investing behind priority macro trends. Against this backdrop, the team suggests investors 'make their own luck' by tilting towards assets that rely on collateral-based cash flows, can adjust to rising input costs, and/or enhance operational improvement—like control positions with operational upside in Private Equity, senior slices of Credit amid wide dispersions, or Real Assets with long-dated, inflation-linked contracts that can reprice alongside rising nominal GDP. The report also examines what has remained constant and what has shifted in the team's thinking since their 2025 Outlook published last December. Consistent with prior thinking, the team believes we continue to see a stellar technical backdrop, capital markets responding favorably to a global easing cycle, and sustained positive earnings momentum despite tariff-induced uncertainty. McVey and his team also share updated asset allocation picks and pans, refreshed expected return forecasts, and new model portfolios they believe are well-positioned to outperform in the continued Regime Change environment. They make several out-of-consensus calls, which include their beliefs that: The technical picture remains much better than investors think—net issuance of IPOs, levered loans, and high yield remain at levels not seen since 2009. We are in a productivity cycle similar to the 1990s, which will drive markets longer and higher than consensus. Lower taxes, higher margins, and higher quality earnings all suggest U.S. markets are reasonably valued vs. overvalued. Europe will perform better for longer, amid a stronger euro, more defense and infrastructure spending, continued interest in renewables, deeper capital markets, and less onerous cross-border restrictions. The oil market will move into larger surpluses over the next six to 12 months, driving WTI oil prices back down to $60 per barrel on average in the second half of 2025 and 2026. The unemployment rate will stay lower for longer relative to prior cycles, even against a modest payroll backdrop with gains increasingly concentrated in just a few sectors. Private Equity will remain a top-performing asset class as it continues to benefit from dispersion and control, allowing investors to lean into operational improvement and accretive M&A activity. There is increased opportunity for private investment in Infrastructure due to government retrenchment amid fiscal constraints, energy transition needs, and geopolitical competition. In addition, the report details the GMAA team's updated views on global economic forecasts, inflation, interest rates, currencies, and capital markets. The report also addresses key investor queries on topics such as how Europe can improve its competitive positioning, the team's outlook for expected returns, and their latest thinking on relative value in Credit and the potential direction of individual retirement accounts (401(k), annuities, etc.). Links to access this report in full as well as an archive of Henry McVey's previous publications follow: To read the full report, click here. For an archive of previous publications please visit About Henry McVey Henry H. McVey joined KKR in 2011 and is Head of the Global Macro, Balance Sheet and Risk team. Mr. McVey also serves as Chief Investment Officer for the Firm's Balance Sheet, oversees Firmwide Market Risk at KKR, and co-heads KKR's Strategic Partnership Initiative. As part of these roles, he sits on the Firm's Global Operating Committee and the Risk & Operations Committee. Prior to joining KKR, Mr. McVey was a Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager and Head of Global Macro and Asset Allocation at Morgan Stanley Investment Management (MSIM). Learn more about Mr. McVey here. About KKR KKR is a leading global investment firm that offers alternative asset management as well as capital markets and insurance solutions. KKR aims to generate attractive investment returns by following a patient and disciplined investment approach, employing world-class people, and supporting growth in its portfolio companies and communities. KKR sponsors investment funds that invest in private equity, credit and real assets and has strategic partners that manage hedge funds. KKR's insurance subsidiaries offer retirement, life and reinsurance products under the management of Global Atlantic Financial Group. References to KKR's investments may include the activities of its sponsored funds and insurance subsidiaries. For additional information about KKR & Co. Inc. (NYSE: KKR), please visit KKR's website at For additional information about Global Atlantic Financial Group, please visit Global Atlantic Financial Group's website at The views expressed in the report and summarized herein are the personal views of Henry McVey of KKR and do not necessarily reflect the views of KKR or the strategies and products that KKR manages or offers. Nothing contained herein constitutes investment, legal, tax or other advice nor is it to be relied on in making an investment decision or any other decision. This release is prepared solely for information purposes and should not be viewed as a current, past or future recommendation or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. This release contains forward-looking statements, which are based on beliefs, assumptions and expectations that may change as a result of many possible events or factors. If a change occurs, actual results may vary materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements. All forward-looking statements speak only as of the date such statements are made, and neither KKR nor Mr. McVey assumes any duty to update such statements except as required by law.
Yahoo
16-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
KKR Releases 2025 Mid-Year Global Macro Outlook
Henry McVey: Stay the Course and 'Make Your Own Luck' NEW YORK, July 16, 2025--(BUSINESS WIRE)--KKR, a leading global investment firm, today released its 2025 Mid-Year Global Macro Outlook by Henry McVey, CIO of KKR's Balance Sheet and Head of Global Macro and Asset Allocation (GMAA). In "Make Your Own Luck," McVey and his team explain why, despite the turbulent start to 2025 and additional expected market drawdowns, they remain positive in their outlook. They note their strong belief that attractive financial conditions, a global easing cycle, ongoing productivity gains, and lack of net issuance—coupled with compelling, powerful investment themes—will drive this cycle both further and longer than many think. And, while they acknowledge that the low rate, low volatility beta trade that defined 2015-2021 is now over, they advocate that investors stay the course by leveraging the team's long-standing Regime Change framework and investing behind priority macro trends. Against this backdrop, the team suggests investors 'make their own luck' by tilting towards assets that rely on collateral-based cash flows, can adjust to rising input costs, and/or enhance operational improvement—like control positions with operational upside in Private Equity, senior slices of Credit amid wide dispersions, or Real Assets with long-dated, inflation-linked contracts that can reprice alongside rising nominal GDP. The report also examines what has remained constant and what has shifted in the team's thinking since their 2025 Outlook published last December. Consistent with prior thinking, the team believes we continue to see a stellar technical backdrop, capital markets responding favorably to a global easing cycle, and sustained positive earnings momentum despite tariff-induced uncertainty. McVey and his team also share updated asset allocation picks and pans, refreshed expected return forecasts, and new model portfolios they believe are well-positioned to outperform in the continued Regime Change environment. They make several out-of-consensus calls, which include their beliefs that: The technical picture remains much better than investors think—net issuance of IPOs, levered loans, and high yield remain at levels not seen since 2009. We are in a productivity cycle similar to the 1990s, which will drive markets longer and higher than consensus. Lower taxes, higher margins, and higher quality earnings all suggest U.S. markets are reasonably valued vs. overvalued. Europe will perform better for longer, amid a stronger euro, more defense and infrastructure spending, continued interest in renewables, deeper capital markets, and less onerous cross-border restrictions. The oil market will move into larger surpluses over the next six to 12 months, driving WTI oil prices back down to $60 per barrel on average in the second half of 2025 and 2026. The unemployment rate will stay lower for longer relative to prior cycles, even against a modest payroll backdrop with gains increasingly concentrated in just a few sectors. Private Equity will remain a top-performing asset class as it continues to benefit from dispersion and control, allowing investors to lean into operational improvement and accretive M&A activity. There is increased opportunity for private investment in Infrastructure due to government retrenchment amid fiscal constraints, energy transition needs, and geopolitical competition. In addition, the report details the GMAA team's updated views on global economic forecasts, inflation, interest rates, currencies, and capital markets. The report also addresses key investor queries on topics such as how Europe can improve its competitive positioning, the team's outlook for expected returns, and their latest thinking on relative value in Credit and the potential direction of individual retirement accounts (401(k), annuities, etc.). Links to access this report in full as well as an archive of Henry McVey's previous publications follow: To read the full report, click here. For an archive of previous publications please visit About Henry McVey Henry H. McVey joined KKR in 2011 and is Head of the Global Macro, Balance Sheet and Risk team. Mr. McVey also serves as Chief Investment Officer for the Firm's Balance Sheet, oversees Firmwide Market Risk at KKR, and co-heads KKR's Strategic Partnership Initiative. As part of these roles, he sits on the Firm's Global Operating Committee and the Risk & Operations Committee. Prior to joining KKR, Mr. McVey was a Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager and Head of Global Macro and Asset Allocation at Morgan Stanley Investment Management (MSIM). Learn more about Mr. McVey here. About KKR KKR is a leading global investment firm that offers alternative asset management as well as capital markets and insurance solutions. KKR aims to generate attractive investment returns by following a patient and disciplined investment approach, employing world-class people, and supporting growth in its portfolio companies and communities. KKR sponsors investment funds that invest in private equity, credit and real assets and has strategic partners that manage hedge funds. KKR's insurance subsidiaries offer retirement, life and reinsurance products under the management of Global Atlantic Financial Group. References to KKR's investments may include the activities of its sponsored funds and insurance subsidiaries. For additional information about KKR & Co. Inc. (NYSE: KKR), please visit KKR's website at For additional information about Global Atlantic Financial Group, please visit Global Atlantic Financial Group's website at The views expressed in the report and summarized herein are the personal views of Henry McVey of KKR and do not necessarily reflect the views of KKR or the strategies and products that KKR manages or offers. Nothing contained herein constitutes investment, legal, tax or other advice nor is it to be relied on in making an investment decision or any other decision. This release is prepared solely for information purposes and should not be viewed as a current, past or future recommendation or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. This release contains forward-looking statements, which are based on beliefs, assumptions and expectations that may change as a result of many possible events or factors. If a change occurs, actual results may vary materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements. All forward-looking statements speak only as of the date such statements are made, and neither KKR nor Mr. McVey assumes any duty to update such statements except as required by law. View source version on Contacts Lauren McCranie212-750-8300media@ Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Business Wire
11-06-2025
- Business
- Business Wire
Wells Fargo Investment Institute: It's Time to Build Resilience and Capitalize on Opportunities
SAN FRANCISCO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Wells Fargo Investment Institute (WFII) today released its ' Midyear Outlook report: Opportunities amid uneven terrain.' The first half of 2025 delivered some of the most stunning and rapid policy changes of the past 80 years. This midyear report assesses the changes since the release of WFII's 2025 Outlook in December and highlights the potential risks and opportunities that may lie ahead. The report includes specific ideas to build portfolio diversification and resilience during the remainder of 2025 and 2026. 'The news of the day is moving with sudden speed, and investors must react quickly to anticipate and manage downstream market implications,' said Darrell Cronk, chief investment officer for Wells Fargo Wealth & Investment Management. 'This can feel jarring, but we believe that uncertainty and volatility often create the best opportunities for investors, and that this time will be no different.' Portfolio returns often take two steps forward and one step back. Markets enjoyed extraordinarily strong returns in 2023 and 2024 with subdued volatility before the changes of first half of 2025 arrived. But households and businesses have a long history of adjusting to tax increases, such as tariffs, and markets are adjusting as well. Outlook on global economy and asset groups: Global economy: Steady underlying support and looming tax policy extensions should cushion a mid-2025, tariff-induced economic slowdown and help the U.S. and international economies avoid a recession into 2026. Global equities: The economic soft landing we expect should help drive global equity prices higher through 2026. Global fixed income: Lingering policy uncertainties likely will keep U.S. Treasury yields volatile into year-end 2025, but we expect slightly higher yields in 2026. Global real assets: The modest improvement in global economic growth that we expect into 2026 should stimulate additional commodity demand and moderately higher commodity prices through 2026. Global alternative investments: We see value in alternative strategies' diversification benefits, as well as their potential ability to capitalize on opportunities during market dislocations. Top portfolio ideas for the balance of 2025: Position portfolios for policy and geopolitical uncertainties Focus on quality and diversifying assets Cushion portfolios with income-generating assets Selectively add exposure to artificial intelligence (AI) Complement U.S. exposure with international assets Highlights of WFII's forecast: The anticipated U.S. GDP (gross domestic product) growth target for 2025 year-end is 1.0%, and 1.8% for 2026. The target for U.S. consumer price inflation in 2025 is 3.5% and 2026 is 2.6%. The S&P 500 Index price target range is 5,900 – 6,100 for year-end 2025 and 6,400 – 6,600 for 2026. Federal funds rate target for 2025 is 4.00% – 4.25% and 3.75% – 4.00% in 2026. Join the WFII 2025 Midyear Outlook call today, June 11, at 4:15 p.m. Eastern Time. Dial-in: 877-601-6604; Passcode: 71-306-44 A summary of the WFII 2025 Midyear Outlook is available (PDF). Please see the full report for detailed information. Risk Disclosure Forecasts and targets are based on certain assumptions and on our current views of market and economic conditions, which are subject to change. All investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. There can be no assurance that any investment strategy will be successful and meet its investment objectives. Investments fluctuate with changes in market and economic conditions and in different environments due to numerous factors, some of which may be unpredictable. Asset allocation and diversification do not guarantee investment returns or eliminate risk of loss. Stock markets, especially foreign markets, are volatile. A stock's value may fluctuate in response to general economic and market conditions, the prospects of individual companies, and industry sectors. International investing has additional risks including those associated with currency fluctuation, political and economic instability, and different accounting standards. This may result in greater share price volatility. These risks are heightened in emerging and frontier markets. Investments in fixed-income securities are subject to market, interest rate, credit, liquidity, inflation, prepayment, extension, and other risks. Bond prices fluctuate inversely to changes in interest rates. Therefore, a general rise in interest rates can result in a decline in the bond's price. The information contained herein constitutes general information and is not directed to, designed for, or individually tailored to, any particular investor or potential investor. This report is not intended to be a client-specific suitability analysis or recommendation, an offer to participate in any investment, or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell securities. Do not use this report as the primary basis for investment decisions. Consider all relevant information, including your existing portfolio, investment objectives, risk tolerance, liquidity needs, and investment time horizon. About Wells Fargo Investment Institute Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Inc. is a registered investment adviser and wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo Bank, N.A., a bank affiliate of Wells Fargo & Company. About Wells Fargo Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE: WFC) is a leading financial services company that has approximately $1.9 trillion in assets. We provide a diversified set of banking, investment and mortgage products and services, as well as consumer and commercial finance, through our four reportable operating segments: Consumer Banking and Lending, Commercial Banking, Corporate and Investment Banking, and Wealth & Investment Management. Wells Fargo ranked No. 34 on Fortune's 2024 rankings of America's largest corporations. News, insights, and perspectives from Wells Fargo are also available at Wells Fargo Stories. PM-06042026-7408492.1.1 News Release Category: WF-ERS
