2 days ago
Hyphenating US-Pak: Doing business with gunmen
Howdy, phenomenal pardners! Michael Kurilla (left) & Asif Munir, Florida, 2023 The Trump regime's reported invitation to Pakistan Army chief Asim Munir to attend the 250th US Army Day celebrations in Washington tomorrow has stirred various vectors of speculation. Chief among them: Potential reset in US-Pakistan relations.
Pakistan's prospective utility within an emergent Trump doctrine that views bilateral ties primarily through an economic lens.
Revival of a counterterrorism partnership between Islamabad/Rawalpindi and Washington.
Implications of such a warming of US-Pakistan ties on US-India relations. In New Delhi, this apparent shift in Washington's posture has come as a surprise. What is even more startling is the timing - coming on the heels of India's retaliation against Pakistan for its involvement in the Pahalgam terrorist attacks on civilians.
A significant part of Trump's appeal among Indians, both in India and the diaspora, stemmed from his tough stance on terrorism. During Trump 1.0, he publicly called out Pakistan's duplicity in his very first tweet of 2018, accusing it of 'lies and deceit' while receiving billions in US aid. He subsequently cut $300 mn in aid to Pakistan, a move that built on the Obama administration's earlier decision to withhold one-third of all military assistance to the country. During Trump 2.0, consistent with his recalibrated approach toward various global actors, the US president has markedly diverged from his earlier stance, Pakistan being no exception. In February, the Trump regime departed from its broader aid-cutting policy to authorise $397 mn in security assistance to Pakistan. This was specifically aimed at supporting a US-backed programme for maintenance and technical support of Pakistan's F-16 fighter the assistance explicitly stated that it was not to be used for operations against India, reopening of funding channels to Pakistan signalled a broader trend of policy reversal. In March, Trump publicly thanked Pakistan for its assistance in the arrest of Mohammad Sharifullah, a suspect linked to multiple terrorist attacks, including the 2021 Abbey Gate bombing in recently, Trump's consistent attempts to place Pakistan on equal footing with India, particularly following the India-Pak military escalation in May, appear driven by strategic reinforcing this shift, US Centcom chief Michael Kurilla referred to Pakistan as a 'phenomenal partner' in counterterrorism efforts. Similarly, Paul Kapur, Trump's incoming assistant secretary of state for South and Central Asian affairs, affirmed that the US would 'pursue security cooperation where it is beneficial to US interests while seeking opportunities for bilateral collaboration in trade and investment'. Together, these moves reflect a deliberate and coordinated strategy for renewed strategic engagement with apparent rapprochement between the US and Pakistan may be driven largely by Trump's personal inclinations, and a possible desire to secure future economic deals. For Pakistan, warming ties with Washington represent a strategic gain, however temporary. Any signs of improving relations between Islamabad/Rawalpindi and Washington stand in sharp political contrast to the stance of former PM Imran Khan and his supporters in Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI).Khan had accused the US of orchestrating the fall of his government, and maintained that he would never have agreed to American demands for military bases in his country. If PTI continues to remain a significant political force, any future US requests for enhanced military presence - even under the guise of counterterrorism - are likely to face resistance. Conversely, if Trump intensifies efforts to strike an economic deal with Pakistan, the resulting political reverberations within the country could become even more tough posture during his first term - marked by launching a trade war with China, pursuing a 'maximum pressure' strategy against Iran culminating in the killing of Iranian general Qasem Soleimani, and publicly calling out countries like Pakistan for sponsoring terrorism - is now giving way to a policy of modus vivendi, driven by an outsized prioritisation of US interests, particularly economic US-China economic deal reportedly 'finalised' on June 11 underscores this clear shift in US diplomacy - one that increasingly sidelines concerns of Washington's allies, partners and friends. While this approach may serve immediate US interests, especially in economic terms, it risks prompting a strategic recalibration by other nations in how they engage with the the shadow of recent military escalation between India and Pakistan, Pakistan's detente with the US may present an opportunity for Trump. But the strain this reset places on India-US relations could prove detrimental to both countries in the long run. The divergence between New Delhi and Washington is now most pronounced on the issue of Pakistan and, more broadly, on India has strongly reaffirmed its zero-tolerance stance against terrorism following the Pahalgam attack, the Trump regime appears increasingly willing to engage Pakistan as a counterterrorism partner. In doing so, Trump seems to be prioritising unilateral US interests over shared strategic concerns that have long underpinned the India-US partnership. Unlike his first term, when Trump's South Asia policy broadly aligned with the US-India strategic convergence, his bilateral bets in his second gig risk further destabilising an already fragile region. (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this column are that of the writer. The facts and opinions expressed here do not reflect the views of Elevate your knowledge and leadership skills at a cost cheaper than your daily tea. How a nudge from Cyrus Mistry helped TCS unlock a USD1 billion opportunity
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