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Russian Breakthrough Highlights Ukraine's Biggest Weakness Ahead of Summit
Russian Breakthrough Highlights Ukraine's Biggest Weakness Ahead of Summit

Newsweek

time2 days ago

  • Politics
  • Newsweek

Russian Breakthrough Highlights Ukraine's Biggest Weakness Ahead of Summit

Based on factual reporting, incorporates the expertise of the journalist and may offer interpretations and conclusions. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. A sudden infiltration of Russian units through one of Ukraine's most crucial defensive lines has exposed the embattled nation's critical manpower disadvantage just as U.S. President Donald Trump prepares to discuss the future of the war with his Russian counterpart. While the extent of Russia's thrust toward the critical supply hub of Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine's Donetsk province is still unclear, analysts and former officials say the penetration speaks to a persistent problem for Kyiv that has the potential to also influence the White House's perception going into Friday's summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin. "It reinforces the acknowledgement that Ukraine has a military disadvantage here," Dan Caldwell, who recently served as senior adviser to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, told Newsweek. "The Russians currently have the upper hand on the battlefield and, while for good reasons there may be an unwillingness to acknowledge that out loud directly, it also reinforces the fact that there really aren't any good options to fundamentally change that," he added. "From what I saw previously, and from what I'm seeing now in open-source, is that what has been building up for the Ukrainians is fundamentally a manpower issue." Caldwell noted that Ukrainians also suffered from "other disadvantages around certain supplies or certain munitions" including "the technological side," where Russia's increased use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), or drones, have also contributed to recent gains. "But if you don't have enough infantry to hold a line, to occupy a city, to maintain a line of communication or a supply line," he said, "then you are going to be pushed out of these positions eventually by a force that actually has manpower, has infantry, has forces that can go and hold and seize terrain." A Ukrainian National Guard serviceman of 3rd Brigade "Spartan" runs through a tree line during a training not far from the frontline on the Pokrovsk direction, on August 8, 2025. A Ukrainian National Guard serviceman of 3rd Brigade "Spartan" runs through a tree line during a training not far from the frontline on the Pokrovsk direction, on August 8, 2025. Evgeniy Maloletka/AP Manpower Advantage Caldwell, speaking at a virtual event hosted by the Defense Priorities think tank, placed Russia's manpower advantage at a factor of three-to-one, the same figure cited by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky during a meeting with journalists on Tuesday. Zelensky also said that Russian forces were suffering casualties at roughly three times the rate of the Ukrainian side on a daily basis. Kyiv and Moscow regularly dispute one another's casualty figures provided throughout the conflict. At the same time, the Ukrainian leader acknowledged a recent push by "groups of Russians" advancing approximately six miles toward the town of Dobropillia, located around 12 miles north of Pokrovsk. The development was first reported earlier this week by a number open-source intelligence platforms, including the Ukraine-based DeepState mapping group. The move prompted the Ukrainian military to mobilize members of its National Guard's First Corps Azov to respond to the incursion. Reached for comment, the First Corps Azov referred Newsweek to a statement issued Tuesday in which the group confirmed its deployment to the Pokrovsk sector, where "the situation remains complex and dynamic." "The enemy is attempting to advance in this direction at the cost of significant losses in manpower and equipment," the First Corps Azov said. "Units within the corps have planned and carried out actions to block enemy forces in the area." Zelensky described the infiltrators as being lightly equipped, with some already "partially destroyed" and "partially captured." The Ukrainian Armed Forces chief of staff reported that the front was "stabilizing" as of Thursday, with clashes ongoing. Meanwhile, Moscow-aligned officials see the battle for Pokrovsk, still referred to in pro-Russia circles by its former name, Krasnoarmeysk, as particularly decisive ahead of the looming U.S.-Russia talks. "Krasnoarmeysk is now a focal point for everyone," Denis Pushilin, head of the largely unrecognized, Russia-backed Donetsk People's Republic, said Wednesday on the Soloviev Live channel, in comments carried by the official TASS Russian News Agency. "Especially ahead of the upcoming meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump in Alaska, this area is receiving particular attention," Pushilin said. "The enemy is transferring more forces, including units of the Azov battalion. However, they have reason to fear because our units' successes are clear." Evolving Tactics Rob Lee, senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute's Eurasia Program who closely tracks battlefield developments in Ukraine, told Newsweek that the "picture is not fully clear" regarding the extent to which Russia's push toward Pokrovsk could yield a greater impact but called it "troubling development" for Kyiv. Rather than viewing the operation as a deliberate attempt to skew the talks, Lee saw the advance as a pre-planned part of a broader trend of Russian infiltration attempts on this key axis, possibly enhanced by the use of local separatist Ukrainian units from Donetsk, as well as the Ukrainian military's persistent manpower shortages. "Ukrainian brigades are undermanned. They've been undermanned for some time, particularly the infantry component is undermanned," Lee said. "What that means is the infantry are spending longer times in position without rotations. There are fewer infantry holding onto individual positions, the positions might be kind of spread apart." "In most cases, [Ukrainian forces] can still stop these infiltrators with UAVs, whether it's in front of the frontline or behind the frontline," he added. "But if Russia sends one guy at a time, two guys at a time, some of them will be killed, but some of them will get back. And then, if they can mass six or seven guys behind the Ukrainian frontline, then that creates problems." Even smaller Russian raiding parties could prove a threat to defensive lines. Lee noted that many Ukrainian positions are also held by just three soldiers as both sides seek to adapt to the realities of drone warfare, which has proven devastating to large gatherings of personnel and vehicles. For a time, Ukraine's innovative use of UAVs helped to even the playing field against Russia, which began the war in February 2022 with more traditional large-scale assault tactics. Ukraine's drone arsenal includes larger, long-range attack systems such as Turkey's Bayraktar TB2 as well as smaller platforms, including various first-person view quadcopters and loitering munitions like the U.S.-made Switchblade. In more recent phases of the conflict, however, Moscow has accelerated its own modernization of battlefield techniques, including the use of loitering munitions like the Lancet and a domestically produced variant of Iran's Shahed, to bolster its numerical advantage and mitigate hemorrhaging losses of personnel and equipment. "Russia has continued to evolve. Russia has the manpower advantage that they're trying to maximize and capitalize on," Lee said. "So, their tactics involve a lot of infantry infiltration tactics, but they've also improved their UAV use. They've closed the gap with Ukraine on the kind of employment and organizational structure of how to use strike UAVs." "They've gotten better at using glide bombs for targets. They've gotten better at reconnaissance and locating targets and quickly striking them with artillery or UAVs," he added. "And so, it's kind of this combination of infiltration tactics and more sophisticated use of targeting." Russian soldiers prepare a Lancet drone for action in an undisclosed location in Ukraine, on July 23, 2025. Russian soldiers prepare a Lancet drone for action in an undisclosed location in Ukraine, on July 23, 2025. Russian Defense Ministry Press Service Press Service/AP 'A Question of Sustainability' Lee explained that the outcome of this combination — while yet to decisively shift the tide of the conflict one way or another — "leaves the perception that Russia is still advancing," and doing so at a rate that outpaces previous gains made over the past year in a conflict that has repeatedly fallen into bloody stalemates. And it's not just about territory, Lee pointed out, "it's a question of sustainability." "That's the bigger issue," he said. "And that's why fixing the manpower situation in Ukraine is so vital to keep this war sustainable for Ukraine." Mark Cancian, senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies' Defense and Security Department and former chief of the Force Structure and Investment Division at the White House's Office of Management and Budget, also saw the Russian gains as being about more than just land. "For the last 18 months they have been chewing away at the front line in half a dozen spots," Cancian told Newsweek. "In that time, they have captured territory about the size of Delaware though at immense cost in casualties." "The recent Russian advances are worrisome, not because of the territory gained, but because of the possibility that Ukrainian defenses might collapse," Cancian said. "A Russian breakthrough would restore maneuver to the battlefield, and Russia could bring its superior numbers to bear more effectively." They also serve the purpose of bolstering the Russian narrative of inevitable victory as Putin's first face-to-face meeting with Trump in six years looms. "Even before this latest advance, Putin thought that he was winning and that time was on his side," Cancian said. "These recent battlefield successes will reinforce those beliefs and make him less likely to consider compromise." John Helin, analyst and founder of the Black Bird Group intelligence analysis team that focused on the Russia-Ukraine war, echoed the broader threat the recent Russian infiltration poses to Ukraine's capacity to continue its defense in the long-term. "Even without a breakthrough the great risk is in the Ukrainian use of reserves and lack of manpower," Helin told Newsweek. "These sort of penetrations drain Ukrainian resources and stretch the frontline, further agitating Ukrainian manpower issues and making new penetrations possible." "Currently we are still quite some ways away from any active risk to Kramatorsk and Slovyansk," he added, "but the recent penetration proves that even using these infantry tactics Russia can move relatively rapidly, and that the Ukrainian frontline is strained to its limits." Relatives embrace in farewell as staff from the evacuation organization East SOS evacuate residents from Dobropillya, north of Pokrovsk, under the looming threat of Russian FPV attack drones on August 12, 2025 in Dobropillya, Ukraine.... Relatives embrace in farewell as staff from the evacuation organization East SOS evacuate residents from Dobropillya, north of Pokrovsk, under the looming threat of Russian FPV attack drones on August 12, 2025 in Dobropillya, Ukraine. MoreThe Kremlin's Cards Questions over Ukraine's long-term capability to sustain the war effort have proven central to the U.S. debate over the conflict, fueled in part by Russian narratives of inevitable victory. While European allies have largely committed to backing Ukraine indefinitely, Trump has publicly questioned Zelensky's position, famously telling the Ukrainian leader he did not "have the cards" during a heated exchange at the White House in February. Since then, Trump softened his tone on Ukraine and hardened his rhetoric toward Russia, for whom he threatened "very severe consequences" should the upcoming summit with Putin fail to yield a successful outcome on Wednesday. But with Trump acknowledging that territorial changes were on the line in the talks, the recent Russian advances could prove pivotal to Putin's leverage when he arrives in Alaska seeking permanent control over at least Donetsk and Luhansk, as U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff has suggested, and potentially—as the Russian leader has repeatedly demanded—Kherson and Zaporizhzhia as well. All four provinces were collectively annexed by Russia without international recognition following a wartime referendum held in September 2022. A fifth province, Crimea, was earlier taken by Russia following a similar unrecognized vote held in March 2014, after Russian forces seized the Black Sea peninsula in tandem with separatist uprisings in Donetsk and Luhansk, serving as prelude to the full-scale invasion launched eight years later. Russia remains in full control of Crimea, has thus far established near-total control over Luhansk and currently occupies around three-quarters of Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. Altogether, the Russian presence accounts for nearly a fifth of Ukraine's entire territory. "Putin already has the initiative on the frontline, but having clear recent successes to point at can only strengthen his hand," Helin said. "Earlier this year Trump famously said that Ukraine holds no cards, and these kind of developments can easily act as proof of that opinion." Now, Helin argue, "Putin can come to the table and try to persuade Trump that freezing the frontlines is unacceptable because Russia has no incentive for it: it will beat Ukraine eventually anyhow." "That's not necessarily true, the Russians can still exhaust themselves and with the dynamics of this year, even with the recent penetration taking all of Donetsk is going to take the Russians a long time," he added, "but it likely does give some weight to Putin's arguments at the table as he seeks to convince Trump of his maximalist goals in Ukraine."

Army enlisted leader sees ‘transformation' at work in brigade visit
Army enlisted leader sees ‘transformation' at work in brigade visit

Yahoo

time12-02-2025

  • Climate
  • Yahoo

Army enlisted leader sees ‘transformation' at work in brigade visit

War is fog. War is mud. War is finding high ground. And for the Army, war is terrain. One of three select brigades is learning that during training in real time, not far away from real fighting in Ukraine. Soldiers with the 3rd Brigade, 10th Mountain Division, have spent the past month in Europe spread out between Poland and Germany, where they've faced freezing conditions, fog too thick to drive through, rain, snow, mud and all the accompanying challenges such a climate brings. Based out of Fort Johnson, Louisiana, the 3rd Brigade is one of three Transformation in Contact brigades, an Army-wide effort to test on-the-ground equipment and structural changes, such as new reconnaissance and strike companies. The 2nd Brigade, 101st Airborne Division, out of Fort Campbell, Kentucky, and the 2nd Brigade, 25th Infantry Division, out of Hawaii, are also Transformation in Contact brigades. Army wants robots, sensors to make infantry platoons 10 times better During this rotation, the 3rd Brigade also got attacked by Sergeant Major of the Army Michael Weimer. But it was only pretend. Weimer visited soldiers, donning his field gear for a few days to march and train alongside the troops on both sides of the training scenario. 'We saw snow, sleet, fog that was so thick we had to walk in front of the vehicles at night,' Weimer told Army Times in a Jan. 31 interview. 'It's like it's own little weather ecosystem. And I think that's important context because that's very different than the 2nd of 25th ID's rotation and very different from the 2nd of the 101st down at [Joint Readiness Training Center], they see totally different terrain, totally different weather.' The former Delta Force operator spent some time with the opposition forces, probing the 3rd Brigade's defenses, where he saw soldier ingenuity on display. A key component of the Transformation in Contact initiative is giving brigades new and tailored equipment, such as infantry squad vehicles, more compact communications gear, and more advanced drones, among a slew of other tech tools. Weimer said he was impressed with the squad vehicle mobility that soldiers were able to use, even in the tough terrain. Alongside the squad vehicle, Weimer said soldiers were using the squad multipurpose equipment transport, or SMET, a kind of robotic mule, to cut obstacle emplacement time by nearly half the time it typically takes. The SMET can also operate in silent mode, charging devices without being detected in the field, he added. Those small but meaningful advances — cutting down time and reducing the number of soldiers to accomplish a task — have all been key in how small units and their noncommissioned officers are finding ways to solve tough problems in the field. However, there are still challenges. During the 3rd Brigade's rotation in Europe, freezing weather was eating up drone batteries. Soldiers were sleeping with batteries, using hand warmers and emergency blankets to keep batteries warm and sustain their charge, Weimer said. So, it's not all about new gear. Soldiers are still working with legacy systems, Weimer said. But they're finding new ways to use that old gear. The sergeant major described what he's seen among troops as having a '[Transformation in Contact] mindset.' Some of that translated into soldiers working through legacy network problems with new tools and combining approaches where it made sense. 'Soldiers are being soldiers,' Weimer said. 'They're figuring it out.'

US army takes Ukraine drone warfare notes in Bavaria
US army takes Ukraine drone warfare notes in Bavaria

Arab News

time10-02-2025

  • Politics
  • Arab News

US army takes Ukraine drone warfare notes in Bavaria

HOHENFELS Germany: Deep in a Bavarian forest, a black reconnaissance drone buzzes overhead, piloted by US soldiers hoping to put lessons learnt from the war in Ukraine into practice. Cheaper and more plentiful than in the past, drones are changing the face of modern warfare, particularly in Ukraine. Both Moscow and Kyiv use them for armed attacks as well as surveillance, making it hard for combatants to hide. 'It's a transparent battlefield. That's why in Ukraine you see troops deep down in bunkers or consistently moving,' said Brig. Gen. Steve Carpenter, training with the army at a base in Hohenfels, in the southern German state of Bavaria. 'You stop, you die.' Army Chief of Staff General Randy George said the US military is changing as a result of what it sees in Ukraine and the way drone warfare is developing. That means making a unit's footprint smaller and more mobile, making them harder to target. During the exercise, involving soldiers from the US army's 3rd Brigade, 10th Mountain Division, the battle headquarters changed position four times in nine days. No more than about 20 personnel are usually there at any one time — far fewer than in past campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan, when upwards of 100 may have been at a command post. Of the lessons drawn from the Ukraine war, 'I think the most important is the speed with which we need to change,' said George, urging the army to become more 'flexible, nimble, adaptive.' With new technology moving fast in Ukraine, the US military also wants to speed up its procurement processes. There were tentative signs of this at Hohenfels. New transport trucks were being tested just three months after the army asked General Motors to repurpose a civilian vehicle, a period that Alex Miller, George's science and technology adviser, said 'might be' record time for the army. But building drones at scale could prove more challenging for the United States. Russian and Ukranian forces often deploy cheap, off-the-shelf Chinese drones. But the United States, amid rising tensions with Beijing, does not want to have to rely on a potential adversary for its supplies. The US industrial base has meanwhile eroded in recent decades. The number of people employed in defense industries in the country dropped by 1.9 million, or 63.5 percent, in 2023 compared to the level in 1985, according to the Department of Defense. 'American industry doesn't have the ability to produce drones like the Chinese,' said Col. Dave Butler, George's communications adviser. And he believes there is only one person in the United States who could potentially produce drones at scale in the event of war. That businessman is Elon Musk, since Tesla makes far more of its own components than other vehicle makers. 'If we had to suddenly flick on a switch and make 10,000 drones a month, only Elon could do it,' he said. Musk, the multi-billionaire entrepreneur, has been a fixture on the American political scene since President Donald Trump made him one of his closest advisers. For technology adviser Miller, the need is acute and the United States could use help. 'We are trying to incentivise... an American industrial base for things like flight controllers, things like cameras and antennas,' he said. But he added that NATO allies must join in, saying that it 'can't just be us — it's got to be Europe too.'

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