Latest news with #AGNC
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Is AGNC Investment Worth Buying Today? The Answer May Surprise You.
AGNC Investment is a mortgage REIT. The value of the company is basically the value of its mortgage securities portfolio. The value of AGNC Investment's portfolio has been shrinking for years. 10 stocks we like better than AGNC Investment Corp. › AGNC Investment (NASDAQ: AGNC) has a gigantic 15%+ dividend yield. That lofty yield sounds very enticing, but sometimes things that sound too good to be true are, in fact, too good to be true. Here's why investors need to take a very nuanced view of AGNC Investment and how the company may actually be helping you decide when to buy the stock. Property-owning real estate investment trusts (REITs) buy physical properties and lease them out to tenants. That's what you would do if you owned a rental property, so it's probably fairly easy to wrap your head around the business model. Mortgage REITs like AGNC Investment buy mortgages that have been pooled together into bond-like securities. That's a lot more complex and you probably couldn't mimic that in your own investment life. Everything from interest rates to mortgage repayment rates can impact the value of mortgage securities. So even tracking what is going on within AGNC Investment's portfolio, or within any mortgage REIT, would be hard for most investors. Adding to the complexity is that mortgage securities trade all day long, so the portfolio's characteristics can change fairly quickly. This is not an investment for conservative income investors. That fact is highlighted by the steady downtrend in the dividend over the last decade or so, as the chart below highlights. Not surprisingly, the price of the stock has trailed the falling dividend. That said, AGNC Investment's value is basically the value of its portfolio of mortgage securities. In that way it is kind of similar to a mutual fund. And, like a mutual fund, AGNC Investment reports the value of its portfolio on a per-share basis. It calls this number tangible net book value per share. It only reports that number quarterly, but it is an important figure to monitor. At the end of the first quarter of 2025 AGNC Investment's tangible net book value per share was $8.25. At the end of the first quarter of 2022 it was $13.12. Tangible net book value per share can rise and fall fairly dramatically at times, depending on the market environment. Over the past year, for example, this metric has risen and fallen by 5% between quarters multiple times. It is, at best, a rough gauge for investors to monitor between quarters. But the really interesting thing here is that AGNC Investment's stock price often trades above tangible net book value per share. Sometimes dramatically above the number -- the 52-week high is $10.85 even though the reported tangible net book value per share never rose above $8.84 in any of the last four quarters. This is great news for shareholders, since AGNC Investment frequently sells new shares to the public to raise additional capital. Every penny above tangible net book value that a new buyer pays is tantamount to giving current shareholders free money. Management even explains this fact when it discusses stock sales, saying things like the company "opportunistically" raised money "at a considerable premium to tangible net book value" and that this brings "meaningful book value accretion to our common stockholders." The takeaway here is pretty clear. Nobody should pay more than tangible net book value per share for AGNC Investment unless they believe that number is going to be headed sharply higher. But sometimes AGNC Investment's share price dips below that figure, with the 52-week low coming in at $7.85. The company would likely not be raising capital at that price, given that it would destroy value for current shareholders. However, if you buy the stock on the open market below book value you are increasing the chances that you are getting a good deal on the stock. The problem with this discussion is that it doesn't address the dividend or the dividend yield. That's because the company's focus isn't income, it is total return. The dividend is a part of total return, but total return assumes the dividend is reinvested. But a key part of total return is also the price you pay for the investment. If you bought at the 52-week high price of $10.85 per share, your total return would be terrible here even with the huge dividend yield. However, if you kept a close eye on tangible book value per share and only bought when the stock price was at or below the last reported figure, your total return would likely still be positive, helped along by that lofty yield. Before you buy stock in AGNC Investment Corp., consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the for investors to buy now… and AGNC Investment Corp. wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $669,517!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $868,615!* Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor's total average return is 792% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 173% for the S&P 500. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join . See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of June 2, 2025 Reuben Gregg Brewer has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Is AGNC Investment Worth Buying Today? The Answer May Surprise You. was originally published by The Motley Fool Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
AGNC Investment: Its High Yield Looks Tempting -- Why the Stock May Be Ready to Rebound
With a high yield and monthly dividend payout, AGNC often draws the attention of income-oriented investors. However, AGNC has struggled in recent years due to rising mortgage rates and an inverted yield curve. The setup for the stock now looks a lot more favorable. 10 stocks we like better than AGNC Investment Corp. › AGNC Investment (NASDAQ: AGNC) has one of the highest dividend yields in the market, sitting at about 16%. But with a stock price that's steadily declined the past few years, investors are right to ask: Is the payout sustainable, and more importantly, is the stock a buy today? For those unfamiliar, AGNC is a mortgage real estate investment trust (mREIT) that owns agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), primarily guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Because these securities are backed by government agencies, they carry virtually no credit risk. But AGNC's business is far from risk-free, and here's where the story gets complicated. The biggest issue facing AGNC the past few years has been higher mortgage interest rates. There have been two main issues that have pushed up rates. One is that the Federal Reserve aggressively raised benchmark interest rates a couple of years ago to combat inflation. This resulted in mortgage rates also climbing. However, that was not the only reason mortgage rates shot up. Spreads between MBS yields and Treasury yields also began to significantly widen. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the Fed was a huge buyer of MBSs, driving down yields and narrowing the yield spread between MBS and Treasuries. However, after the pandemic, it stopped purchasing MBSs and began letting them roll off its balance sheet as they matured. About the same time, banks also began to back off buying MBS as bond prices fell, and the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, which was heavily concentrated in long-duration MBSs, only pushed banks further away from the MBS market. During this period, the value of AGNC's MBS portfolio, as measured by its tangible book value (TBV), plunged. From the end of 2021 through the end of 2023, AGNC's tangible book dropped 45% from $15.75 to $8.70 per share. It has slipped a bit further since, and stood at $8.25 at the end of Q1 2025. Ultimately, where AGNC's TBV goes, its stock is sure to follow. Despite the rough stretch that AGNC has seen, the setup for the stock now looks a lot more favorable. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has signaled that more rate cuts could be on the table, and the Fed's own projections point to lower rates in the years ahead. That should be a much better environment for AGNC. Fed rate cuts could benefit AGNC in two main ways. First, it would likely reduce its short-term funding costs; AGNC tries to borrow money to invest in MBSs with longer maturities and higher yields. Second, lower rates could help increase its TBV by boosting MBS valuations. The past few years, the Treasury yield curve was inverted, which means that shorter-term Treasuries, like the two-year, had a higher yield than long-term Treasuries, like the 10-year. Not surprisingly, this is not a good environment for a company that generates its income from the spread between short- and long-term rates. Now, AGNC actively hedges out its funding costs to better align them with the duration of its MBS assets. However, it's not able to fully offset the pressure from an inverted curve over an extended period of time. With the yield curve flipping from inverted to positive (long-term yields being higher than short-term yields) late last year, though, AGNC stands to benefit from wider spreads. AGNC's portfolio is also well-positioned if MBS yields begin to fall. More than 80% of its holdings carry coupons of 6% or lower, which helps limit prepayment risk. Prepayment risk is highest when homeowners begin to refinance into lower-rate mortgages, forcing mortgage REITs to reinvest in lower-yielding MBS. While high dividend yields are attractive, they can also be a warning sign. However, AGNC has maintained the payout through a very difficult environment, albeit sometimes at the expense of a lower tangible book value. It's not fair to say the dividend is completely safe, but if the yield curve continues to steepen, the dividend should become more sustainable. If MBS-to-Treasury yield spreads narrow from historically wide levels as banks or other institutions reenter the MBS market, AGNC could see a meaningful recovery in both its book value and share price. That's the best-case scenario. However, even if that doesn't play out, AGNC still has room to deliver solid total returns. The company pays a monthly dividend of $0.12 per share, which equates to a yield of about 16% based on recent prices for the stock. That dividend income alone puts it in a strong position to outperform in a market that seems to have stalled. With even a modest portfolio value recovery, AGNC could deliver annual 20% to 25% total returns during the next few years. Overall, I'd consider AGNC a high-risk, high-reward income play. However, the stock has already taken the brunt of the blow from higher interest rates and wide MBS-to-Treasury yield spreads, and the current environment may finally be turning in its favor. The wild card is whether historically wide MBS-to-Treasury spreads begin to narrow, because if they do, the upside could be significant. For investors who understand and are comfortable with the risks, AGNC offers a very high yield with strong potential upside. It's not a set-it-and-forget-it stock, but at current prices, it could be a smart investment for income-focused investors during the next few years. Before you buy stock in AGNC Investment Corp., consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the for investors to buy now… and AGNC Investment Corp. wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $674,395!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $858,011!* Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor's total average return is 997% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 172% for the S&P 500. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join . See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of June 2, 2025 Geoffrey Seiler has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. AGNC Investment: Its High Yield Looks Tempting -- Why the Stock May Be Ready to Rebound was originally published by The Motley Fool
Globe and Mail
3 days ago
- Business
- Globe and Mail
AGNC Investment: Its High Yield Looks Tempting -- Why the Stock May Be Ready to Rebound
AGNC Investment (NASDAQ: AGNC) has one of the highest dividend yields in the market, sitting at about 16%. But with a stock price that's steadily declined the past few years, investors are right to ask: Is the payout sustainable, and more importantly, is the stock a buy today? For those unfamiliar, AGNC is a mortgage real estate investment trust (mREIT) that owns agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), primarily guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Because these securities are backed by government agencies, they carry virtually no credit risk. But AGNC's business is far from risk-free, and here's where the story gets complicated. Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now. Learn More » Why AGNC has struggled The biggest issue facing AGNC the past few years has been higher mortgage interest rates. There have been two main issues that have pushed up rates. One is that the Federal Reserve aggressively raised benchmark interest rates a couple of years ago to combat inflation. This resulted in mortgage rates also climbing. However, that was not the only reason mortgage rates shot up. Spreads between MBS yields and Treasury yields also began to significantly widen. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the Fed was a huge buyer of MBSs, driving down yields and narrowing the yield spread between MBS and Treasuries. However, after the pandemic, it stopped purchasing MBSs and began letting them roll off its balance sheet as they matured. About the same time, banks also began to back off buying MBS as bond prices fell, and the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, which was heavily concentrated in long-duration MBSs, only pushed banks further away from the MBS market. During this period, the value of AGNC's MBS portfolio, as measured by its tangible book value (TBV), plunged. From the end of 2021 through the end of 2023, AGNC's tangible book dropped 45% from $15.75 to $8.70 per share. It has slipped a bit further since, and stood at $8.25 at the end of Q1 2025. Ultimately, where AGNC's TBV goes, its stock is sure to follow. What could turn things around? Despite the rough stretch that AGNC has seen, the setup for the stock now looks a lot more favorable. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has signaled that more rate cuts could be on the table, and the Fed's own projections point to lower rates in the years ahead. That should be a much better environment for AGNC. Fed rate cuts could benefit AGNC in two main ways. First, it would likely reduce its short-term funding costs; AGNC tries to borrow money to invest in MBSs with longer maturities and higher yields. Second, lower rates could help increase its TBV by boosting MBS valuations. The past few years, the Treasury yield curve was inverted, which means that shorter-term Treasuries, like the two-year, had a higher yield than long-term Treasuries, like the 10-year. Not surprisingly, this is not a good environment for a company that generates its income from the spread between short- and long-term rates. Now, AGNC actively hedges out its funding costs to better align them with the duration of its MBS assets. However, it's not able to fully offset the pressure from an inverted curve over an extended period of time. With the yield curve flipping from inverted to positive (long-term yields being higher than short-term yields) late last year, though, AGNC stands to benefit from wider spreads. AGNC's portfolio is also well-positioned if MBS yields begin to fall. More than 80% of its holdings carry coupons of 6% or lower, which helps limit prepayment risk. Prepayment risk is highest when homeowners begin to refinance into lower-rate mortgages, forcing mortgage REITs to reinvest in lower-yielding MBS. Is the dividend safe? While high dividend yields are attractive, they can also be a warning sign. However, AGNC has maintained the payout through a very difficult environment, albeit sometimes at the expense of a lower tangible book value. It's not fair to say the dividend is completely safe, but if the yield curve continues to steepen, the dividend should become more sustainable. Is AGNC a buy right now? If MBS-to-Treasury yield spreads narrow from historically wide levels as banks or other institutions reenter the MBS market, AGNC could see a meaningful recovery in both its book value and share price. That's the best-case scenario. However, even if that doesn't play out, AGNC still has room to deliver solid total returns. The company pays a monthly dividend of $0.12 per share, which equates to a yield of about 16% based on recent prices for the stock. That dividend income alone puts it in a strong position to outperform in a market that seems to have stalled. With even a modest portfolio value recovery, AGNC could deliver annual 20% to 25% total returns during the next few years. Overall, I'd consider AGNC a high-risk, high-reward income play. However, the stock has already taken the brunt of the blow from higher interest rates and wide MBS-to-Treasury yield spreads, and the current environment may finally be turning in its favor. The wild card is whether historically wide MBS-to-Treasury spreads begin to narrow, because if they do, the upside could be significant. For investors who understand and are comfortable with the risks, AGNC offers a very high yield with strong potential upside. It's not a set-it-and-forget-it stock, but at current prices, it could be a smart investment for income-focused investors during the next few years. Should you invest $1,000 in AGNC Investment Corp. right now? Before you buy stock in AGNC Investment Corp., consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and AGNC Investment Corp. wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $674,395!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $858,011!* Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor 's total average return is997% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to172%for the S&P 500. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor. See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of June 2, 2025
Yahoo
4 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Is AGNC Investment's Huge Yield as Attractive as It Seems?
AGNC Investment has a lofty 16% dividend yield. The company went public at $20 per share but now trades for around $9. The dividend has declined from a quarterly peak of $1.50 to a current level of $0.36. 10 stocks we like better than AGNC Investment Corp. › AGNC Investment (NASDAQ: AGNC) stands out for one very big reason: Its huge 16% dividend yield. That's dramatically higher than the 1.3% yield of the S&P 500 index (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) and the 4.1% yield of the average real estate investment trust (REIT). Is that lofty yield as attractive as it looks? The answer is a little complicated. Putting aside AGNC Investment's business (it is a mortgage REIT, or mREIT) for a second, the stock shows up prominently on just about all lists of high-yield stocks. That's notable because the way an investor analyzes dividend stocks is vastly different from the way a growth stock would be analyzed, as just one example. So the first big question to answer with AGNC Investment is "How good a dividend stock is this REIT?" The answer for most investors will likely be "Not very good." As the chart above highlights, the dividend rose sharply at its initial public offering (IPO), which is normal for a dividend-paying company, and then started a long-term decline. From the peak to the current level, the dividend has fallen from $1.50 per share per quarter to just $0.36. The share price followed a similar path, rising to a peak of over $36 as the dividend increased only to start a long decline to about $9 as the dividend was steadily reduced. Most dividend investors are likely trying to find a stock that can provide them with reliable income to pay for living expenses in retirement. AGNC Investment has not provided that. In fact, if you used the dividends to pay for living expenses, you would have ended up with less income and less capital. That's a really bad outcome. What's interesting about AGNC is that it doesn't hide the fact that it isn't really a dividend stock. On its home page, it effectively touts total return as its big goal, but with a "substantial yield component." Total return assumes that dividends are reinvested. The mREIT's first quarter highlights this dynamic in action. The company noted that it had a "2.4% economic return on tangible common equity for the quarter." That was "comprised of $0.36 dividends per common share and $(0.16) decrease in tangible net book value per common share." Essentially, it paid out more in dividends than it lost in tangible net book value. Tangible net book value is different from share price; it is more like a net asset value for a mutual fund. But this dynamic is an important one for investors to understand. Looking over the long term, the stock price at the IPO was $20. In other words, as of today the stock is worth $11 less than at the time of the share offering. But the REIT has paid out $49.24 per share in dividends. The net result is $38 or so more in dividends than was lost in the share price decline. That's why AGNC's total return is positive since its IPO, despite the falling dividend and share price. This is a nuanced view of the stock. In fact, a dividend investor could argue that even spending the dividends has resulted in a net positive outcome based on the full picture. It's just that most dividend investors don't think this way. And since there are plenty of dividend stocks that have attractive yields, growing dividends, and stock prices that have largely risen over time, there's no reason for them to start looking at a more complex situation like AGNC. The company isn't a bad mortgage REIT. In fact, it does a pretty good job of providing its shareholders with total return via an investment in mortgage securities. And dividends play a very important role in that story, whether they are reinvested or not. Still, this is probably not the type of investment that dividend investors will want in their portfolio. The lofty yield simply isn't as attractive as it seems, even though the dividend story here may not be as bad as it seems, either. Before you buy stock in AGNC Investment Corp., consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the for investors to buy now… and AGNC Investment Corp. wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $668,538!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $869,841!* Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor's total average return is 789% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 172% for the S&P 500. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join . See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of June 2, 2025 Reuben Gregg Brewer has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Is AGNC Investment's Huge Yield as Attractive as It Seems? was originally published by The Motley Fool
Yahoo
5 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
AGNC Investment's 15.93% Dividend Yield: A Powerful Income Play?
One of the most closely watched aspects of AGNC Investment Corp.'s AGNC financial profile is its dividend policy. This publicly traded mortgage real estate investment trust (mREIT) offers favorable long-term stockholder returns and a gigantic dividend yield that appeals to income-focused investors. Income-seeking investors have a large appetite for REIT stocks, as U.S. law requires REITs to distribute 90% of their annual taxable income as dividends. AGNC has a record of paying monthly dividends, currently yielding a staggering 15.93%. This is impressive compared with the industry's average of 12.92% and attracts investors as it represents a steady income stream. It currently sits at a payout ratio of 81%. Dividend Yield Image Source: Zacks Investment Research Dividends aside, AGNC has a share repurchase plan in place. In October 2024, the company's board of directors terminated the existing stock repurchase plan and replaced it with a new plan authorizing it to repurchase up to $1 billion of common stock through Dec. 31, 2026. As of March 31, 2025, the full authorization was available for repurchase. The company enjoys a decent financial position. As of March 31, 2025, AGNC Investment's liquidity, including unencumbered cash and Agency MBS, was $6 billion. Given this, AGNC's capital distribution seems sustainable. Annaly Capital Management, Inc. NLY also has a record of paying monthly dividends, currently yielding a staggering 14.3%. It presently sits at a payout ratio of 101%. In March 2025, Annaly announced a cash dividend of 70 cents per share for the first quarter of 2025, marking a 7.7% hike from the prior payout. Till the end of the first quarter of 2025, the company had $7.5 billion of total assets available for financing, including cash and unencumbered Agency MBS of $4.7 billion, which can readily provide liquidity in times of adverse market conditions. This will support its capital distribution in the future. Arbor Realty Trust ABR has a record of paying out quarterly dividends. Its current dividend yield is 12.66%, with a payout ratio of 115%. However, earlier this month, the company reduced its dividend 30.3% to 30 cents per Realty's weak liquidity position is concerning. As of March 31, 2025, ABR had cash and cash equivalents of $508 million, while it had a long-term debt of $4.8 billion. Hence, given a weak liquidity profile, Arbor Realty's capital distribution seems unsustainable. AGNC shares have gained 4.5% year to date compared with the industry's growth of 1.2%. Price Performance Image Source: Zacks Investment Research From a valuation standpoint, AGNC Investment trades at a forward price-to-tangible book (P/TB) ratio of 1.06X, above the industry's average of 0.95X. Price-to-Tangible Book TTM Image Source: Zacks Investment Research The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AGNC's 2025 and 2026 earnings implies year-over-year declines of 11.2% and 3.9%, respectively. The estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been unchanged over the past 30 days. Estimates Revision Trend Image Source: Zacks Investment Research AGNC currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here. Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) : Free Stock Analysis Report Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) : Free Stock Analysis Report Annaly Capital Management Inc (NLY) : Free Stock Analysis Report This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research ( Zacks Investment Research Sign in to access your portfolio
