4 days ago
A turning of the education tide? Latest school data shows improvements at all levels – except for NCEA 1
The exception was the proportion of school leavers (84.2%) with NCEA Level 1 or above, which dropped slightly from 2023 (84.6%). This was the lowest rate in a decade.
All other measures increased:
76.1% left with NCEA Level 2 or above, up from 75.5% in 2023 but below the peak of 82.2% in 2020.
left with NCEA Level 2 or above, up from 75.5% in 2023 but below the peak of 82.2% in 2020. 55.5% left with NCEA Level 3 or above, up from 52.8% in 2023. The peak was also in 2020 (60.7%).
left with NCEA Level 3 or above, up from 52.8% in 2023. The peak was also in 2020 (60.7%). 40.2% left with University Entrance, up from 38.6% in 2023.
left with University Entrance, up from 38.6% in 2023. 81% of school leavers stayed at school to the age of 17 or above, up from 79.3% in 2023.
of school leavers stayed at school to the age of 17 or above, up from 79.3% in 2023. 11.8% of school leavers achieved a Vocational Pathways Award, a slight improvement on 2023 (11.3%).
It's possible a greater tendency for schools to drop NCEA Level 1 had an impact on last year's results, potentially increasing the likelihood of more students failing to reach NCEA Level 1.
'We can't be certain whether the decision by some schools to no longer offer NCEA Level 1 is having a significant impact on the proportion of school leavers attaining that qualification,' said Curriculum Centre manager Rob Mill.
'However, many of the schools that have moved away from offering Level 1 tend to be schools with students facing fewer socio-economic barriers (schools with lower equity index numbers), which may influence patterns in the data.'
A turning of the tide?
After new NCEA standards came out in 2013, only 45% of students leaving a state school had NCEA Level 3. This rose to 50% in 2016, 51% in 2019 and 57% in the first year of the pandemic, when Covid disruption enabled students to receive bonus credits.
It was all downhill from then and across the board – until 2024.
An Education Review Office report in 2023 said New Zealand is not alone in experiencing a post-Covid collapse, while a 2024 academic paper called A Generation At Risk estimated the impact of Covid was up to six months of 'learning loss', and up to eight months for students with higher socio-economic barriers.
NCEA Level 1 attainment for school leavers in 2024 was the lowest since new standards were introduced in 2013. Photo / 123 rf
The 2024 results buck the trend of post-Covid collapse.
'The data does suggest a potential turning point,' said Stuart Deerness, senior lecturer in teacher education at the Auckland University of Technology.
'The improvements across higher qualifications [from NCEA Level 2 to UE] are genuinely encouraging and show that teachers' dedicated work to reverse post-pandemic learning disruption is paying off for the majority of senior students.
'Combined with more students staying to age 17-plus, this indicates we are becoming more effective at moving engaged learners through to meaningful qualifications.'
This contrasts with the drop in NCEA Level 1 achievement, with nearly one in six school leavers with no formal qualification.
'The recovery is real but unevenly distributed, with a widening equity gap where students from poorer areas and those struggling with issues like chronic absence are being left further behind,' he said.
'Our most vulnerable learners are disengaging from the system entirely. While the mainstream improves, a marginalised group requires urgent, targeted support to prevent them from leaving school empty-handed.'
Māori falling further behind
A far greater proportion of students with few socio-economic barriers (as measured by the equity index) left school in 2024 with NCEA Level 1 (96.3%) compared with those facing the most barriers (72.3%).
This was also the proportion (72.3%) of Māori school leavers in 2024 with NCEA Level 1 or above, lower than for Pacific school leavers (81.4%).
'The gap in NCEA Level 1 attainment rates between Māori school leavers and all school leavers increased in 2024 to 11.9 percentage points, up 0.5 percentage points from 2023,' the Ministry of Education report on the results said.
'This was the largest gap since 2014, and 3.8 percentage points more than in 2017 when the gap was smallest.'
The difference between rich and poor was far more pronounced at NCEA Level 3 or above: 84% of school leavers with few socioeconomic barriers gained this level, more than double the proportion of those who faced the highest barriers (36.2%).
Only 37.1% of Māori school leavers had NCEA Level 3 or above, while for Pacific school leavers it was just shy of half of them (49.5%).
Since 2020, the proportion of Māori school leavers with NCEA Level 3 or above has decreased across all school equity index bands.
Female students are still doing better than their male counterparts, but the achievement gender gap is shrinking over time. In 2024, 59.5% of female leavers attained NCEA Level 3 or above, compared with 51.6% of male leavers.
The office of Education Minister Erica Stanford did not respond to a request for comment.
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Education Minister Erica Stanford announced plans to scrap NCEA last week. Photo / Dean Purcell
'Overused' flexibility
Last week, Stanford announced plans to replace the NCEA system, saying it was enabling students too much flexibility at the expense of credibility.
Under the new scheme, Year 11 students will face what is being called a Foundational Skills Award with a focus on literacy and numeracy. English and mathematics will be required subjects for students at this year level.
Year 12 and 13 students will seek to attain the New Zealand Certificate of Education (NZCE) and the New Zealand Advanced Certificate of Education (NZACE) respectively.
This will replace the current system with a structured approach that requires students to take five subjects and pass at least four to receive the Year 12 and 13 certificates.
Feedback on the proposed new scheme is open until September 15, with Cabinet making final decisions in December.
Derek Cheng is a senior journalist who started at the Herald in 2004. He has worked several stints in the press gallery team and is a former deputy political editor.
