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Hans India
09-05-2025
- Business
- Hans India
Pakistan stock index nosedives by over 6%
Karachi: The Pakistan Stock Exchange plunged by over 6 per cent on Thursday with trading halted for an hour after rumours of escalation in military action by India near Karachi. Although the rumours were unfounded, the benchmark KSE100 index tumbled 6,948.73 points, or 6.32 per cent, to 1,03,060.30, before the trading was halted. Trading resumed with Fatima Bucha of AKD Securities confirming the situation on the floor had calmed down a bit. 'But the situation could get worse as investors are panicking due to the geopolitical situation,' she said. 'No one is sure what is going to happen and how and if Pakistan will respond to India's aggression.' The downward trajectory of the index was largely driven by negative contributions from key stocks such as cement, energy, bank, and technology, which collectively dragged the index down. Meanwhile the government has taken measures to keep its foreign exchange reserves stabilised. It has imposed a 60-day ban on importing and exporting precious metals, jewellery, and gemstones from Thursday. The temporary ban was imposed by a Commerce Ministry Order suspending SRO760 of 2013, which governs the trade of precious metals.
Hans India
08-05-2025
- Business
- Hans India
Bloodbath on Pak bourse
Karachi: The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) lost 6,500 points on Wednesday amid an escalation of military confrontation between India and Pakistan in the wake of the Pahalgam terror attack. The market saw investors in panic mode in intra-day trade as the benchmark KSE-100 index decreased by 6,560.82 points, or 5.78 per cent, to stand at 107,007.68 from the last close of 113,568.50 when the market opened this morning. Due to the massive dip, the market was immediately suspended briefly. This is the second-largest intraday tumble (points-wise), second to the 8,700 points loss that happened in the US last month after President Donald Trump's trade tariff announcements. Fatima Bucha of AKD Securities said the market showed signs of recovery after 11 am, reaching 112,457.37 points, before declining to 111,171.92 points at 12 pm. 'This was expected in the market for days because of the fears about military strikes by India,' she said. 'The market opened under pressure this morning and some selling has been observed, though volumes remain low as investors assess the evolving situation,' she said.
Business Recorder
05-05-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
April's fuel surge
Petroleum sales experienced a notable surge in April 2025, marking a 13-month high for the oil marketing sector. Total volumetric sales reached 1.46 million tons during the month, representing a 32 percent year-on-year increase and a 20 percent rise compared to March 2025. This sharp recovery can be attributed to a combination of factors including a low base from the previous year, seasonal uptick in consumption post-Ramazan, reduced smuggling of petroleum products across the Iran border, and a boost in transportation and harvesting-related demand. Moreover, a significant decline in fuel prices—13 percent lower for motor spirit (MS) and 10 percent for high-speed diesel (HSD) compared to the same period last year—also played a central role in stimulating demand. Breaking down the product-wise performance, MS sales rose by 25 percent year-on-year and 14 percent month-on-month to reach 660,000 tons, underpinned by growing intercity mobility and improving economic activity. HSD volumes climbed to 622,000 tons, a 33 percent jump year-on-year and 28 percent sequentially, reflecting heightened agricultural usage during the harvesting season as well as a reduction in illegal imports. Furnace oil (FO) sales, though constituting a smaller share of the total, witnessed an exceptional increase of 182 percent year-on-year and 55 percent month-on-month to reach 84,000 tons, likely due to greater reliance on FO-based power generation as summer demand kicked in. High-octane blending component (HOBC) volumes also showed significant year-on-year growth, although they remained small in absolute terms. On a cumulative basis, petroleum product sales for the first ten months of FY25 (10MFY25) stood at 13.22 million tons, a 6 percent increase from the same period last year. This growth was largely driven by MS and HSD, which posted gains of 6 percent and 11 percent respectively. In contrast, FO sales fell by 31 percent year-on-year during the same period, consistent with the sector's longer-term shift away from FO for power generation due to cost and environmental considerations. Excluding FO, total petroleum sales stood at 12.6 million tons, up 9 percent year-on-year, highlighting the growing prominence of retail fuels in the country's energy consumption mix. From a fiscal perspective, the government collected an estimated PKR 926–980 billion under the Petroleum Development Levy (PDL) during 10MFY25, against a full-year target of PKR 1.28 trillion as per the research note by AKD Securities. In highlights that in mid-April, authorities raised the PDL on MS and HSD to PKR 77–78 per liter to meet fiscal consolidation goals, partially to finance electricity subsidies in the final quarter of the fiscal year. This policy measure, while boosting revenue, also underscores the balancing act the government must perform between inflation management, revenue generation, and energy accessibility. Overall, the data from April 2025 reinforces the view that petroleum demand in Pakistan remains sensitive to seasonal cycles, pricing dynamics, and enforcement of regulatory controls. The strong monthly rebound also provides a robust base for continued growth in the upcoming months, with industry analysts projecting a 5 percent year-on-year increase in overall OMC sales for FY26, supported by expectations of lower fuel prices and a recovery in industrial and transport activity.
Arab News
28-04-2025
- Business
- Arab News
Surge in gold prices amid Trump tariff turmoil dulls Pakistani wedding season demand
KARACHI: As US President Donald Trump ratcheted up his tariff war on the world, gold kept climbing in lockstep to reach a succession of record highs, including in Pakistan. In recent weeks, gold has globally offered investors a safe haven from the chaos that has enveloped many financial markets since Trump's tariff announcements on April 2. But at the same time, it has dampened consumption during the wedding season in Pakistan, as buyers and jewelers feel the brunt of high prices, with one tola, or nearly 12 grams, costing about Rs348,700 ($1,200). The average monthly income in Pakistan, meanwhile, is roughly Rs70,000 ($248). 'We can see that gold is hovering around an all-time high,' Kamal Ahmed, a commodities analyst at AKD Securities, told Arab News, adding that gold prices in Pakistan had surged 38 percent since the beginning of the year. The increase, he said, was triggered by geopolitical tensions, the Russia-Ukraine war and macroeconomic uncertainty worsened by the latest US trade actions. 'When there is uncertainty in the economy, when there is uncertainty in the geopolitical situation, people like to invest in gold,' Ahmed explained, adding that central banks around the world had also bought 'a lot of gold' recently to hedge against a possible tariff-driven recession. In international markets, gold touched a record $3,500 per ounce, about 28.35 grams, on April 22, pushing local prices in Pakistan to fresh highs. Analysts suggest more pain ahead. 'I think gold might test $3,800 per ounce this year, and if it breaches that level, you could see $4,500 per ounce by the end of 2025,' said Ahmed. Global brokerage firm JP Morgan has also predicted gold could rise beyond $4,000 per ounce next year, warning of growing recession risks tied to inflated US tariffs. The impact on Pakistan, on a tricky path to economic recovery under a $7 billion IMF bailout program, could be severe. 'Investors would prefer to buy gold than invest in equities because they seek a very safe option,' said Ahmed. For now, the math is simple: If Trump continues his trade war against China, and increases tariffs from the 10 percent base on other countries after his 90-day pause, then it's likely that gold will continue to rally. But if a compromise with Beijing is worked out that allows both parties to save face, and other countries reach deals with Trump that largely preserve global trade, then the case for gold looks less secure. On Monday, gold retreated as easing US-China trade tensions boosted investors' risk appetite and dented demand for safe-haven assets such as bullion, while a stronger dollar also piled on the pressure. In the domestic market, the price of 24-karat gold per tola fell by Rs3,300 on Monday, bringing it down to Rs348,700 ($1,200). The price of 10 grams of 24-karat gold also saw a decrease of Rs2,833, settling at Rs298,950 ($1,063). But prices are still too high for most consumers and are dampening the spring/early summer wedding season in Pakistan, where gold is an intrinsic part of celebrations. At a jeweler's shop in Karachi's oldest Sarafa Bazaar, Fatima, a housewife who only gave her first name, stared last week at rows of glittering gold sets she could no longer afford. 'I was buying gold for my daughter's wedding that we have delayed for now because the prices of gold are very high,' Fatima said. 'You either don't give gold to your children at all or delay the marriage.' She said she hoped prices might ease after Eid Al-Adha in June. 'The prevailing rates have made gold unreachable for the poor,' M. Iqbal, director of the All Pakistan Sarafa Gems & Jewelers Association, said, estimating that about 65 percent of traders in the gold market were actively buying, further driving up demand and prices. 'It's risen beyond their purchasing power now. Gold has become an investor's business only.' He warned that if the tariff war dragged on, gold prices in Pakistan could swell beyond Rs500,000 ($1,780) per tola. 'People are managing their weddings by purchasing lesser quantities of gold,' Iqbal warned. 'People who used to buy two or more tolas are now purchasing only half of it, and that too because it's a tradition.' Muhammad Yaqoob Ishaq, a jeweler whose family has traded gold for more than a century, said many customers were now opting for artificial jewelry. 'Nowadays artificial jewelry is trending in weddings,' he said. 'People have been buying artificial jewelry or using silver ornaments that are gold coated.'
Express Tribune
05-02-2025
- Business
- Express Tribune
Trump's US tariff shifts expected to benefit Pakistan's economy: Report
Listen to article The recent imposition of tariffs by the United States on China, Mexico, and Canada is expected to have a favorable impact on Pakistan's economy, primarily due to the country's import-driven economic structure, according to a new report by AKD Securities. The brokerage firm highlights that the imposition of tariffs could lead to lower global commodity prices, especially oil, as the US dollar strengthens and interest rates remain high. Pakistan, which relies heavily on imports, stands to benefit from reduced costs in key commodities, potentially supporting its export-driven industries, including textiles and technology. 'We believe the imposition of tariffs by the USA on Mexico, Canada, and China is positive for Pakistan, given its import-led position. We expect these measures to lower the outlook for commodity prices due to a stronger dollar and higher interest rates for a longer period in the USA, amid a weaker global economic growth outlook,' AKD Securities stated in its latest Pakistan Strategy note. On February 1, US President Donald Trump signed executive orders imposing 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, with partial exemptions for Canadian energy and oil exports, and a 10% tariff on China. The tariffs will remain in place until the countries take steps to address the flow of migrants and drugs, particularly fentanyl, into the US. However, a breakthrough came earlier this week as Mexico and Canada secured last-minute agreements to avoid these tariffs. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum promised to deploy 10,000 National Guard officers to curb drug trafficking and migration following talks with Trump. Meanwhile, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, after two calls with the US president, negotiated a 30-day tariff pause by agreeing to strengthen border enforcement against drug smuggling and undocumented migration. The shifting trade dynamics are likely to reduce global commodity prices, benefiting Pakistan by lowering its import costs and bolstering sectors that rely on exports. 'The USA remains the largest trade destination for Pakistani exports, accounting for 19% of the country's exports in 1HFY25. We do not foresee any direct imposition of tariffs on Pakistan's goods, given their small proportion in the context of US imports (0.1%) and their basic nature,' the report noted. While concerns regarding the freeze of US aid have been raised, AKD Securities indicates that the financial impact on Pakistan will be minimal. The government had only budgeted $21 million in grants from USAID for FY25, out of an overall external financing requirement of $26 billion, with no bilateral loans projected. The brokerage firm also warned that any future tariffs on remittances from the US could have a modestly negative impact on Pakistan's external account. Despite this, AKD Securities expects Pakistan's currency to remain stable, buoyed by higher foreign inflows, improved remittance flows, and a reduced import bill. With external financing needs projected at $25.4 billion, Pakistan aims to secure $7.5 billion in grants and concessional loans from multilateral lenders. In terms of market outlook, the report suggests that Pakistan's stock market has already started to reflect improved macroeconomic indicators, despite initial concerns over the US aid freeze and trade measures. The firm anticipates falling interest rates and a stable exchange rate will further strengthen the equities market. Analysts predict a 250 basis points cut in the State Bank of Pakistan's interest rates throughout 2025. As a result, AKD Securities has adopted an overweight stance on sectors such as banking, energy, fertilizer, cement, oil marketing, autos, textile, and technology stocks. The firm expects these sectors to benefit from monetary easing, stable exchange rates, and declining global commodity prices. However, it maintains a market-weight stance on the power sector and an underweight position in chemicals.
