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Newsweek

Disturbance in the Atlantic Has 80 Percent Chance to Develop: What To Know

Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued a special tropical weather outlook Sunday warning of a disturbance in the eastern Atlantic that has about an 80 percent chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next seven days. Designated as AL97 or Invest 97L, the system is moving west-northwestward near the Cabo Verde Islands, the NHC said in a Sunday morning forecast. Newsweek has reached out to the NHC for more information via email Sunday during non-working hours. Why it Matters This forecast comes at the peak of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, when weather along the east coast of the United States intensifies from mid-August through mid-October. Federal and academic forecasts projected an above-normal 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, Newsweek previously reported. NHC assigned a high 7-day development probability to AL97 while it tracked across the eastern tropical Atlantic. Disturbances that emerge off the coast of West Africa in August often serve as the origin for long-track Atlantic tropical cyclones that later threaten the Caribbean, the U.S. East Coast or the Gulf of Mexico. What To Know Updated satellite-derived winds show a well-defined low-pressure area about midway between the west coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands with maximum winds near 35 mph. "Only a small increase in the organization could lead to the formation of a tropical depression before the low moves near or across the Cabo Verde Islands tonight and on Monday," the NHC special outlook said. National Hurricane Center shows outlook for disturbances August 10, 2025. National Hurricane Center shows outlook for disturbances August 10, 2025. NHC The NHC assigned the disturbance a 40 percent chance of formation over 48 hours and an 80 percent chance over seven days. The system is moving west-northwestward at roughly 15 to 20 mph. "Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds were possible today and Monday across the Cabo Verde Islands" and that "interests there should monitor the progress of this system," the NHC special outlook said. A second area, Invest 96L, is being tracked by forecasters farther west in the central tropical Atlantic, with disorganized showers and thunderstorms The NHC assigned 96L a lower probability of development — 10 percent in 48 hours and 20 percent in seven days — citing surrounding dry air that should slow development. What People Are Saying Chris Justus, WYFF 4 Chief Meteorologist said in a Facebook post Sunday: "The Euro AI model shows our potential hurricane tracking dangerously close to the Southeast. The key question this week: how fast does it intensify? Early rapid strengthening could pull it out to sea — but slower growth might keep it west and over the warm Gulf Stream." The National Hurricane Center said in an advisory Sunday: "Even if a tropical depression does not form over the next day or so, environmental conditions appear conducive for later development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle to latter portion of this week while moving west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic." What Happens Next Forecasters will continue to monitor AL97 as it moves west across the Atlantic. The system is likely to develop into a tropical depression by the middle of the week, NHC said. Coastal communities will monitor for any further development amid the height of the Atlantic Hurricane Season.