Latest news with #ALG
Yahoo
26-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of Alamo Group Inc. (NYSE:ALG)
The projected fair value for Alamo Group is US$238 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity With US$197 share price, Alamo Group appears to be trading close to its estimated fair value The US$218 analyst price target for ALG is 8.7% less than our estimate of fair value How far off is Alamo Group Inc. (NYSE:ALG) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example! We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model. We've discovered 1 warning sign about Alamo Group. View them for free. We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years. Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value: 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 Levered FCF ($, Millions) US$118.9m US$135.1m US$140.5m US$145.7m US$150.7m US$155.7m US$160.7m US$165.7m US$170.8m US$175.9m Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Est @ 4.00% Est @ 3.68% Est @ 3.46% Est @ 3.30% Est @ 3.20% Est @ 3.12% Est @ 3.07% Est @ 3.03% Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 7.6% US$110 US$117 US$113 US$109 US$104 US$100 US$96.2 US$92.2 US$88.3 US$84.5 ("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$1.0b After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.9%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.6%. Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$176m× (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (7.6%– 2.9%) = US$3.9b Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$3.9b÷ ( 1 + 7.6%)10= US$1.9b The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$2.9b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$197, the company appears about fair value at a 17% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out. We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Alamo Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.6%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.078. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business. View our latest analysis for Alamo Group Strength Debt is not viewed as a risk. Weakness Earnings declined over the past year. Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Machinery market. Opportunity Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 2 years. Current share price is below our estimate of fair value. Threat Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the American market. Whilst important, the DCF calculation shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For Alamo Group, there are three pertinent items you should further research: Risks: We feel that you should assess the 1 warning sign for Alamo Group we've flagged before making an investment in the company. Management:Have insiders been ramping up their shares to take advantage of the market's sentiment for ALG's future outlook? Check out our management and board analysis with insights on CEO compensation and governance factors. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing! PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
08-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Alamo Group: Q1 Earnings Snapshot
SEGUIN, Texas (AP) — SEGUIN, Texas (AP) — Alamo Group Inc. (ALG) on Thursday reported first-quarter profit of $31.8 million. The Seguin, Texas-based company said it had net income of $2.64 per share. Earnings, adjusted for non-recurring costs, were $2.65 per share. The maker of road maintenance, industrial and farm equipment posted revenue of $391 million in the period. Alamo Group shares have decreased 4% since the beginning of the year. In the final minutes of trading on Thursday, shares hit $178.53, a decrease of 8% in the last 12 months. _____ This story was generated by Automated Insights ( using data from Zacks Investment Research. Access a Zacks stock report on ALG at Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
07-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
LTC Properties Inc (LTC) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Strategic Growth and Financial Resilience
Q : What's assumed in guidance regarding ALG's option to buy assets and their financing process? A : Pamela Shelley-Kessler, Co-CEO, explained that ALG is still working on their financing amidst uncertain rate environments. The guidance assumes they don't refinance this year and continue to pay full rent. LTC Properties Inc ( NYSE:LTC ) is navigating an uncertain rate environment, which poses challenges for securing financing for certain transactions. The company faced increased general and administrative expenses, which partially offset the gains in core FFO and FAD. LTC Properties Inc ( NYSE:LTC ) is actively pursuing opportunities to add newer, stabilized assets to its portfolio, enhancing its quality and growth potential. The company has a strong liquidity position with approximately $681 million available, supporting its growth initiatives. LTC Properties Inc ( NYSE:LTC ) reported an increase in core FFO per share to $0.65 from $0.64 and core FAD per share to $0.70 from $0.67, driven by decreased interest expenses and increased income from joint ventures. LTC Properties Inc ( NYSE:LTC ) successfully implemented its RIDEA strategy, increasing its investment pipeline to $300 million, with approximately 50% representing RIDEA opportunities. For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript . Story Continues Q: Can you provide more details on the $6.5 million lease termination payment to New Perspective? A: Clint Malin, Co-CEO, stated that the payment rewards New Perspective for value creation and provides a runway for future growth opportunities with them, as they have been successful with the asset. Q: Should we expect more triple-net-to-SHOP conversions, and what percentage of the $300 million pipeline is SHOP? A: Clint Malin noted that 50% of the pipeline represents RIDEA opportunities, with potential for other triple-net conversions, but the focus is on external growth for SHOP. Q: How was the NOI range for SHOP assets determined, and what does it imply for growth? A: Gibson Satterwhite, EVP of Asset Management, explained that the range was based on pro forma 2024 data, assuming 85% occupancy for 2025, with growth driven by lease-up in the Anthem portfolio. Q: What are the going-in cap rates for SHOP assets, and how do you balance operator and geographic diversification? A: Clint Malin mentioned that SHOP assets have going-in yields around 7%, with forward-looking yields up to 7.5%-8%. The focus is on operator concentration and diversification, with most deals being one or two assets. Q: Are there any issues with Genesis, given their presence in your top 10 operators? A: Clint Malin confirmed that LTC received May rent from Genesis and has no requests for assistance, with strong coverage in core markets. Q: How have Anthem assets performed over the past few years, and what's the outlook? A: Clint Malin noted that while there have been dips in occupancy, they have recovered previously, and the key selling season presents an opportunity for improvement. Q: Is New Perspective expected to be a core operator for future SHOP growth? A: Clint Malin affirmed that New Perspective is seen as an excellent partner for growth, given their development ability and familiarity with RIDEA. Q: What additional steps are needed to institutionalize the SHOP platform? A: Pamela Shelley-Kessler stated that while the current setup supports the conversion platform, additional hires like analysts and FP&A will be needed as the platform grows. Q: Are there any other leases with market-based resets to be aware of? A: Pamela Shelley-Kessler mentioned 14 properties with market-based resets, with expectations for continued performance improvements and income increases. For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript. This article first appeared on GuruFocus.
Yahoo
11-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
3 Hated Stocks with Mounting Challenges
The past year hasn't been kind to the stocks featured in this article. Each has tumbled to their lowest points in 12 months, leaving investors to decide whether they're witnessing fire sales or falling knives. Price charts only tell part of the story. Our team at StockStory evaluates each company's underlying fundamentals to separate temporary setbacks from structural declines. That said, here are three stocks where the outlook is warranted and some alternatives with better fundamentals. One-Month Return: -13.3% Founded in 1971, Marcus & Millichap (NYSE:MMI) specializes in commercial real estate investment sales, financing, research, and advisory services. Why Is MMI Risky? Products and services have few die-hard fans as sales have declined by 2.9% annually over the last five years Cash-burning history makes us doubt the long-term viability of its business model Diminishing returns on capital suggest its earlier profit pools are drying up At $30.30 per share, Marcus & Millichap trades at 380.9x forward price-to-earnings. Dive into our free research report to see why there are better opportunities than MMI. One-Month Return: +2% Founded in 1971, GMS (NYSE:GMS) distributes specialty building materials including wallboard, ceilings, and insulation products, to the construction industry. Why Are We Hesitant About GMS? Absence of organic revenue growth over the past two years suggests it may have to lean into acquisitions to drive its expansion Estimated sales decline of 3.7% for the next 12 months implies a challenging demand environment Earnings per share have contracted by 13.3% annually over the last two years, a headwind for returns as stock prices often echo long-term EPS performance GMS's stock price of $72.06 implies a valuation ratio of 9.2x forward price-to-earnings. To fully understand why you should be careful with GMS, check out our full research report (it's free). One-Month Return: -9% Expanding its markets through acquisitions since its founding, Alamo (NSYE:ALG) designs, manufactures, and services vegetation management and infrastructure maintenance equipment for governmental, industrial, and agricultural use. Why Does ALG Give Us Pause? Annual revenue growth of 3.7% over the last two years was below our standards for the industrials sector Demand is forecasted to shrink as its estimated sales for the next 12 months are flat Capital intensity has ramped up over the last five years as its free cash flow margin decreased by 4.9 percentage points Alamo is trading at $169.04 per share, or 15.6x forward price-to-earnings. If you're considering ALG for your portfolio, see our FREE research report to learn more. Donald Trump's victory in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election sent major indices to all-time highs, but stocks have retraced as investors debate the health of the economy and the potential impact of tariffs. While this leaves much uncertainty around 2025, a few companies are poised for long-term gains regardless of the political or macroeconomic climate, like our Top 9 Market-Beating Stocks. This is a curated list of our High Quality stocks that have generated a market-beating return of 175% over the last five years. Stocks that made our list in 2019 include now familiar names such as Nvidia (+2,183% between December 2019 and December 2024) as well as under-the-radar businesses like United Rentals (+322% five-year return). Find your next big winner with StockStory today for free.
CAF
20-02-2025
- Sport
- CAF
TotalEnergies CAF Confederation Cup Quarter-Final Draw serves up intriguing duels
Published: Thursday, 20 February 2025 The stage is set for the knockout stages of the 2024/25 TotalEnergies CAF Confederation Cup, following the quarter-finals draw that was held by the Confédération Africaine de Football (CAF) on Thursday, 20 February. Conducted live from the world-class studios of CAF's media rights partners beIN SPORTS in Doha, Qatar, the draw maps out four appetising two-legged quarter-final fixtures to be contested on 2 April and 9 April, 2025. A North versus South duel kicks off the quarter-finals when two-time champions Zamalek SC of Egypt resume their title defence against tournament debutants Stellenbosch FC of South Africa. Ivorian powerhouse Asec Mimosas, who are yearning for continental glory again, will take on two-time champions RS Berkane of Morocco. Berkane have been the best performing side of the group stages, collecting the most points (16) without a loss in the group stage campaign. A mouth-watering Algerian derby awaits in what promises to be an explosive North African duel. CS Constantine, who are making their debut in the knockout stages, take on a highly spirited USM Alger side that is looking to reclaim the title they won in 2022/23. The last quarter-finals clash will see Egyptian side Al Masry take on an in-form Simba SC of Tanzania, who are aiming to go beyond the last-8 stage for the first time since the 2021/22 season. The semi-final draw of the competition was also winner of the tie between RS Berkane and Asec Mimosas will face the victor of the all-Algerian quarter-final between USMA and CS Constantine. The second semi-final will be between the winner of the tie between Simba SC and Al Masry, and the clash between Zamalek SC and Stellenbosch FC. TotalEnergies CAF Confederation Cup Quarter-Finals Draw Outcome: First Leg: Wednesday, 2 April QF 1: Stellenbosch FC (RSA) v Zamalek SC (EGY) QF 2: Asec Mimosas (CIV) v RS Berkane (MAR) QF 3: CS Constantine (ALG) v USMA (ALG) QF 4: Al Masry (EGY) v Simba SC (TAN) Return Leg: Wednesday, 09 April QF 1: Zamalek SC (EGY) v Stellenbosch FC (RSA) QF 2: RS Berkane (MAR) v Asec Mimosas (CIV) QF 3: USMA (ALG) v CS Constantine (ALG) QF 4: Simba SC (TAN) v Al Masry (EGY) TotalEnergies CAF Confederation Cup Semi-Final Draw Outcome: SF 1: RS Berkane (MAR)/Asec Mimosas (CIV) v USMA (ALG)/CS Constantine (ALG) SF 2: Simba SC (TAN)/Al Masry (EGY) v Zamalek SC (EGY)/Stellenbosch FC (RSA) Interesting facts and statistics on the eight remaining clubs can be viewed HERE . For more information on the TotalEnergies CAF Confederation Cup, visit -ENDS- Further Enquiries: CAF Communications communications@
