Latest news with #AMCR
Yahoo
14 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Is Amcor plc (NYSE:AMCR) Trading At A 44% Discount?
Explore Amcor's Fair Values from the Community and select yours Key Insights Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Amcor fair value estimate is US$15.55 Amcor's US$8.73 share price signals that it might be 44% undervalued Analyst price target for AMCR is US$11.04 which is 29% below our fair value estimate Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Amcor plc (NYSE:AMCR) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example! We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model. This technology could replace computers: discover the 20 stocks are working to make quantum computing a reality. What's The Estimated Valuation? We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years. A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate: 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 Levered FCF ($, Millions) US$1.69b US$2.05b US$1.90b US$1.82b US$1.79b US$1.78b US$1.79b US$1.82b US$1.85b US$1.89b Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x6 Analyst x7 Analyst x1 Est @ -3.96% Est @ -1.85% Est @ -0.37% Est @ 0.66% Est @ 1.39% Est @ 1.90% Est @ 2.25% Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 7.3% US$1.6k US$1.8k US$1.5k US$1.4k US$1.3k US$1.2k US$1.1k US$1.0k US$984 US$938 ("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$13b After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 3.1%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.3%. Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2035 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$1.9b× (1 + 3.1%) ÷ (7.3%– 3.1%) = US$47b Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$47b÷ ( 1 + 7.3%)10= US$23b The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$36b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$8.7, the company appears quite good value at a 44% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind. Important Assumptions The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Amcor as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.3%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.995. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business. Check out our latest analysis for Amcor SWOT Analysis for Amcor Strength Debt is well covered by earnings. Dividend is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the market. Weakness Earnings declined over the past year. Shareholders have been diluted in the past year. Opportunity Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the American market. Trading below our estimate of fair value by more than 20%. Threat Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow. Dividends are not covered by earnings and cashflows. Revenue is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year. Looking Ahead: Whilst important, the DCF calculation is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. Why is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? For Amcor, there are three further factors you should consider: Risks: To that end, you should learn about the 5 warning signs we've spotted with Amcor (including 3 which are significant) . Future Earnings: How does AMCR's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered! PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NYSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Forbes
4 days ago
- Business
- Forbes
Buy or Sell Amcor Stock Ahead of Earnings?
Amcor (NYSE:AMCR), the global packaging firm, is scheduled to announce its earnings on Thursday, August 14, 2025. The company has a current market capitalization of $22 billion. Over the last twelve months, it generated $13 billion in revenue and was operationally profitable, with $1.4 billion in operating profits and net income of $807 million. While much will rely on how the results compare to consensus expectations, gaining insight from historical trends may give event-driven traders an advantage. There are two strategies to achieve this: familiarize yourself with the historical probabilities and prepare in advance of the earnings announcement, or analyze the link between immediate and medium-term returns following earnings and adjust your position accordingly after the earnings have been disclosed. If you are looking for potential gains with less volatility than that of individual stocks, Trefis High Quality portfolio offers an alternative—having outperformed the S&P 500 and produced returns exceeding 91% since its inception. See earnings reaction history of all stocks Amcor's Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return Here are some insights on one-day (1D) returns post-earnings: Further information regarding observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns subsequent to earnings is summarized along with the relevant statistics in the table below. Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns A relatively lower-risk approach (though not effective if the correlation is weak) is to assess the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns following earnings, identify a pair with the strongest correlation, and initiate the appropriate trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D exhibit the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves 'long' for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Below is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a more recent 3-year history. Keep in mind that the correlation 1D_5D pertains to the relationship between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns. Find out more about Trefis RV strategy that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (composed of the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000) to deliver significant returns for investors. Additionally, if you're looking for potential gains with a smoother experience than an individual stock like Amcor, contemplate the High Quality portfolio, which has surpassed the S&P and achieved >91% returns since its inception.
Yahoo
4 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Amcor to Report Q4 Earnings: Here's What to Expect for the Stock
Amcor Plc AMCR is scheduled to report fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results on Aug. 4, before the closing Zacks Consensus Estimate for AMCR's fiscal fourth-quarter revenues is pegged at $5.17 billion, indicating 46.3% growth from the year-ago reported consensus estimate for earnings is pegged at 21 cents per share. The consensus estimate suggests no change from the year-ago quarter's actual. The estimate has moved down 4.6% in the past 60 days. Image Source: Zacks Investment Research AMCR's Earnings Surprise History Amcor's earnings met Zacks Consensus Estimates in the trailing four quarters. Image Source: Zacks Investment Research What the Zacks Model Unveils for Amcor Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Amcor this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for AMCR is -2.38%.Amcor's Zacks Rank: Amcor currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here. Factors Likely to Have Shaped AMCR's Q4 Performance Amcor's total volume growth had been in the negative territory for seven straight quarters till the third quarter of fiscal 2024 as inflationary pressures weighed on consumer spending. Volumes improved with 1% growth in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024, 2% in both the first and second quarter of fiscal 2025, and remained flat in the third quarter of fiscal expect 0.3% growth in volumes in the fiscal fourth quarter. This is likely to have been driven by an improved performance in the Flexibles segment. Overall price/mix benefits are expected to be 0.5% for the has been facing intermittent supply shortages and price volatility of certain resins and raw materials because of market dynamics and higher rates of inflation impacting other costs. The impacts of this are expected to be reflected in the company's fiscal fourth-quarter earnings results. Our Q4 Projections for Amcor's Segments The Flexible segment returned to volume growth of 3% in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024 after seven straight quarters of declines. The segment reported volume growth of 3% in both the first and second quarters of fiscal 2025, followed by 1% growth in the third quarter. Backed by solid customer demand across all regions and many product categories, we project volume growth of 1% for the segment. The price/mix is expected to be a favorable 1%. Our sales projection for the Flexibles segment is pegged at $2.71 billion, indicating 1.1% year-over-year model estimates a 2% dip in volumes for the Rigid Packaging segment and a price/mix decrease of 1%. The sales projection for the segment is $0.76 billion, indicating a 10.6% year-over-year decline. Amcor's Share Price Performance Over the past year, shares of Amcor have lost 3.5% compared with the industry's 5.8% decline. Image Source: Zacks Investment Research A Look at AMCR's Recent Peer Performances Sealed Air Corporation SEE reported second-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share of 89 cents, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 72 cents. The bottom line marked a 7% improvement year over year, attributed to improved operating leverage and continued business Air's total sales were $1.335 billion in the reported quarter, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.318 billion. Sales were down 0.7% year over year. Pricing had a favorable impact of 0.5% and volumes were down 1.8% year over year. Currency had a positive impact of 0.5%. Our model predicted that pricing would impact sales favorably by 0.1% and a volume decline of 1.7%.Packaging Corporation of America PKG reported adjusted earnings per share of $2.48 in the second quarter of 2025, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.44. The reported figure was higher than Packaging Corp.'s guidance of $2.41 in the quarter under review. Moreover, the bottom line increased 13% year over year. The upside was driven by higher prices and mixes in both Corp.'s sales in the second quarter grew 4.6% year over year to $2.17 billion. The top line beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.16 Dennison Corporation AVY has delivered adjusted earnings of $2.42 per share in second-quarter 2025, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.38. The bottom line was flat year over Dennison's total revenues dipped 0.7% year over year to $2.22 billion, marginally missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.23 billion. Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Avery Dennison Corporation (AVY) : Free Stock Analysis Report Sealed Air Corporation (SEE) : Free Stock Analysis Report Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) : Free Stock Analysis Report Amcor PLC (AMCR) : Free Stock Analysis Report This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research ( Zacks Investment Research Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
01-08-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Are Wall Street Analysts Bullish on Amcor Stock?
Zurich, Switzerland-based Amcor plc (AMCR) is a global packaging company with a market cap of $13.5 billion. It develops and sells packaging solutions for a wide range of industries, including food, beverages, pharmaceuticals, medical, home and personal care, as well as other consumer and industrial products. This packaging company has underperformed the broader market over the past 52 weeks. Shares of Amcor have fallen 10.8% over this time frame, while the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has gained 16.6%. Moreover, on a YTD basis, the stock is down marginally, compared to SPX's 7.8% uptick. More News from Barchart With UnitedHealth Under DOJ Investigation, Should You Buy, Sell, or Hold UNH Stock Now? Trump Won't Take Away Tesla's Subsidies. Does That Make TSLA Stock a Safe Buy Here? Can AMD Stock Hit $210 in 2025? Tired of missing midday reversals? The FREE Barchart Brief newsletter keeps you in the know. Sign up now! Narrowing the focus, Amcor has also lagged behind the Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund's (XLB) 3.8% downtick over the past 52 weeks and 4.3% rise on a YTD basis. On Apr. 30, Amcor delivered mixed Q3 results, and its shares tumbled 1.3% on the following day. The company's revenue declined 2.3% year-over-year to $3.3 billion, missing consensus estimates by 4.6%. The shortfall was due to softened consumer demand and unfavorable foreign exchange rates. However, despite the fall in revenues, its adjusted EPS of $0.18 increased by a modest 1.1% from the year-ago quarter, meeting analyst expectations. For fiscal 2025, which ended in June, analysts expect Amcor's EPS to grow 4.3% year over year to $0.73. The company's earnings surprise history is promising. It met the consensus estimates in each of the last four quarters. Among the 12 analysts covering the stock, the consensus rating is a 'Strong Buy,' which is based on eight 'Strong Buy,' one "Moderate Buy,' and three 'Hold' ratings. This configuration is more bullish than two months ago, with an overall 'Moderate Buy' rating, consisting of seven analysts suggesting a 'Strong Buy.' On Jul. 18, Wells Fargo & Company (WFC) analyst Gabe Hajde maintained an 'Overweight' rating on AMCR and raised its price target to $11, indicating a 17.6% potential upside from the current levels. The mean price target of $11.50 represents a 23% premium from AMCR's current price levels, while the Street-high price target of $13 suggests an ambitious upside potential of 39%. On the date of publication, Neharika Jain did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on
Yahoo
26-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
What to Expect From Amcor's Q4 2025 Earnings Report
Zurich, Switzerland-based Amcor plc (AMCR) develops, produces, and sells packaging products in Europe, North America, Latin America, Africa, and the Indo-Pacific regions. With a market cap of over $14.2 billion, Amcor operates through the Flexibles and Rigid Packaging segments. The packaging giant is expected to announce its fourth-quarter results on Thursday, Aug. 21. Ahead of the event, analysts expect AMCR to deliver a profit of $0.21 per share, the same as the $0.21 per share reported in the year-ago quarter. Meanwhile, the company has matched the Street's bottom-line estimates in each of the past four quarters. More News from Barchart 2 Recession-Proof Dividend Stocks to Buy for the Second Half of 2025 UnitedHealth Stock Spirals Lower Again. Don't Buy the Dip. Auto Revenue Keeps Plunging at Tesla. Should You Buy the TSLA Stock Dip or Run Far Away? Get exclusive insights with the FREE Barchart Brief newsletter. Subscribe now for quick, incisive midday market analysis you won't find anywhere else. For the full fiscal 2025, analysts expect AMCR's EPS to come in at $0.73 per share, up 4.3% from $0.70 reported in fiscal 2024. In fiscal 2026, its earnings are expected to surge 12.3% year-over-year to $0.82 per share. AMCR stock prices have dipped 3.2% over the past 52 weeks, notably underperforming the S&P 500 Index's ($SPX) 17.3% surge and the Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund's (XLI) 24.6% returns during the same time frame. Amcor's stock prices dropped 1.3% in the trading session following the release of its mixed Q3 results on Apr. 30. Due to unfavorable macro conditions and currency headwinds, the company's topline for the quarter dropped 2.3% year-over-year to $3.3 billion, missing the consensus estimates by a significant 4.4%. Meanwhile, the company's non-GAAP margins experienced a slight improvement, leading to a modest 1.1% uptick in adjusted EPS to $0.18, meeting analysts' expectations. Nevertheless, analysts remain optimistic about the stock's longer-term prospects. AMCR holds a consensus 'Strong Buy' rating overall. Of the 12 analysts covering the stock, opinions include eight 'Strong Buys,' one 'Moderate Buy,' and three 'Holds.' Its mean price target of $11.50 suggests a 17.8% upside potential from current price levels. On the date of publication, Aditya Sarawgi did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
